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Manitoba

Recent electoral history | St. James


2019 2023 Projection NDP 69% ± 7% 47.3% 64.8% PC 24% ± 6% 32.8% 27.7% LIB 6% ± 4% 10.4% 7.5% GRN 1% ± 1% 9.5% 0.0%

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338Canada St. James projection

Latest update: December 20, 2025

St. James 62% 76% 69% ± 7% NDP 18% 30% 24% ± 6% PC 2% 10% 6% ± 4% LIB NDP 2019 64.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% St. James >99% NDP <1% PC <1% LIB Odds of winning | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Wolseley

LIB 5% ± 4% PC 9% ± 4% NDP 78% ± 6% GRN 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Wolseley 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-04-01 LIB PC NDP GRN December 20, 2025 2025-06-18 NDP 80% PC 8% GRN 6% LIB 5% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP 79% PC 9% GRN 6% LIB 5% 2025-09-13 2025-12-20 NDP 78% PC 9% GRN 7% LIB 5% 2025-12-20 Khan PC leader

Odds of winning | Wolseley

LIB <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-04-01 LIB NDP December 20, 2025 2025-06-18 NDP >99% LIB <1% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP >99% LIB <1% 2025-09-13 2025-12-20 NDP >99% LIB <1% 2025-12-20 Khan PC leader