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Manitoba

Recent electoral history | Riel


2019 2023 Projection NDP 59% ± 7% 35.5% 54.6% PC 34% ± 7% 44.8% 38.0% LIB 6% ± 4% 13.7% 7.4% GRN 1% ± 1% 5.9% 0.0%

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338Canada Riel projection

Latest update: December 20, 2025

Riel 52% 66% 59% ± 7% NDP 27% 41% 34% ± 7% PC 2% 10% 6% ± 4% LIB NDP 2019 54.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Riel >99% NDP <1% PC <1% LIB Odds of winning | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Wolseley

LIB 5% ± 4% PC 9% ± 4% NDP 78% ± 6% GRN 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Wolseley 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-04-01 LIB PC NDP GRN December 20, 2025 2025-06-18 NDP 80% PC 8% GRN 6% LIB 5% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP 79% PC 9% GRN 6% LIB 5% 2025-09-13 2025-12-20 NDP 78% PC 9% GRN 7% LIB 5% 2025-12-20 Khan PC leader

Odds of winning | Wolseley

LIB <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-04-01 LIB NDP December 20, 2025 2025-06-18 NDP >99% LIB <1% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP >99% LIB <1% 2025-09-13 2025-12-20 NDP >99% LIB <1% 2025-12-20 Khan PC leader