logo
Manitoba
Manitoba flag

New Democratic Party

Latest update: September 26, 2026
LeaderWab Kinew
Popular vote in 202345.6%
Current vote projection55.8% ± 4.2%
Current number of MP's34
Current seat projection42 [40-45]

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


Vote projection | September 26, 2026

46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 56% 57% 58% 59% 60% 61% 62% 63% 64% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 51.7% ▼ 55.8% ± 4.2% ▼ Max. 60.0% ▼ Probabilities % NDP

Seat projection | September 26, 2026

36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 40 ▼ 42 ▼ Max. 45 ▼ Probabilities % NDP

List of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party



Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Tom Lindsay
N NDP safe
2.
Malaya Marcelino
N NDP safe
3.
Lisa Naylor
N NDP safe
4.
Bernadette Smith
N NDP safe
5.
Uzoma Asagwara
N NDP safe
6.
Wab Kinew
N NDP safe
7.
Jennifer Flett
N NDP safe
8.
Eric Redhead
N NDP safe
9.
Adrien Sala
N NDP safe
10.
Matt Wiebe
N NDP safe
11.
Jim Maloway
N NDP safe
12.
Jamie Moses
N NDP safe
13.
Ian Bushie
N NDP safe
14.
Mark Wasyliw [Elected as NDP]
I NDP safe
15.
Shannon Corbett
N NDP safe
16.
Nahanni Fontaine
N NDP safe
17.
Glen Simard
N NDP safe
18.
Mintu Sandhu
N NDP safe
19.
Mike Moyes
N NDP safe
20.
Jennifer Chen
N NDP safe
21.
Robert Loiselle
N NDP safe
22.
Ron Kostyshyn
N NDP safe
23.
Jelynn Dela Cruz
N NDP safe
24.
Billie Cross
N NDP safe
25.
Tracy Schmidt
N NDP safe
26.
Nellie Kennedy
N NDP safe
27.
Rachelle Schott
N NDP safe
28.
Renée Cable
N NDP safe
29.
JD Devgan
N NDP safe
30.
Diljeet Brar
N NDP safe
31.
Logan Oxenham
N NDP safe
32.
Mike Moroz
N NDP safe
33.
Carla Compton
N NDP safe
34.
Tyler Blashko
N NDP safe
35.
Wayne Balcaen
PC NDP safe
36.
David Pankratz
N NDP safe
37.
Richard Perchotte
PC NDP likely
38.
Derek Johnson
PC NDP likely
39.
Bob Lagassé
PC NDP likely
40.
Kathleen Cook
PC NDP likely
41.
Ron Schuler
PC NDP leaning
42.
Jeff Wharton
PC Toss up
43.
Wayne Ewasko
PC Toss up
44.
Cindy Lamoureux
L Toss up
45.
Colleen Robbins
PC PC leaning
46.
Greg Nesbitt
PC PC likely
47.
Jeff Bereza
PC PC likely
48.
Rick Wowchuk
PC PC likely
49.
Trevor King
PC PC likely
50.
Doyle Piwniuk
PC PC likely