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Manitoba


New Democratic Party





Last update: June 19, 2024

LeaderWab Kinew
Popular vote in 202345.6%
Current vote projection48.1% ± 4.2%
Current number of MP's35
Current seat projection36 [32-40]

1. Wolseley 2. Notre Dame 3. Point Douglas 4. Fort Rouge 5. Union Station 6. Flin Flon 7. St. Johns 8. Thompson 9. The Pas-Kameesak 10. St. James 11. Concordia 12. Elmwood 13. The Maples 14. Fort Garry 15. St. Vital 16. St. Boniface 17. Keewatinook 18. Transcona 19. Fort Richmond 20. Riel 21. Burrows 22. Brandon East 23. Southdale 24. Seine River 25. Radisson 26. Assiniboia 27. Rossmere 28. River Heights 29. Kildonan-River East Majority: 29 seats 30. Kirkfield Park 31. Dauphin 32. McPhillips 33. Tuxedo 34. Waverley 35. Lagimodière 36. Brandon West 37. Selkirk 38. Interlake-Gimli 39. Dawson Trail 40. Roblin 41. Springfield-Ritchot 42. Red River North 43. Lac du Bonnet 44. Tyndall Park 45. Portage la Prairie 46. Riding Mountain 47. Swan River 48. Lakeside 49. Fort Whyte 50. Spruce Woods 51. Turtle Mountain 52. La Vérendrye 53. Agassiz 54. Midland 55. Morden-Winkler 56. Borderland 57. Steinbach NDP The path to 29 seats 338Canada Manitoba projection June 19, 2024

Vote projection | June 19, 2024

39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 56% 57% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 43.9% ▼ 48.1% ± 4.2% ▼ Max. 52.3% ▼ Probabilities % NDP

Seat projection | June 19, 2024

27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Majority 29 seats Min. 32 ▼ 36 ▼ Max. 40 ▼ Probabilities % NDP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Notre Dame NDP safe >99%
2. Flin Flon NDP safe >99%
3. Wolseley NDP safe >99%
4. Point Douglas NDP safe >99%
5. Union Station NDP safe >99%
6. Fort Rouge NDP safe >99%
7. Thompson NDP safe >99%
8. The Pas-Kameesak NDP safe >99%
9. St. James NDP safe >99%
10. Concordia NDP safe >99%
11. Elmwood NDP safe >99%
12. St. Johns NDP safe >99%
13. St. Vital NDP safe >99%
14. Fort Garry NDP safe >99%
15. Transcona NDP safe >99%
16. The Maples NDP safe >99%
17. St. Boniface NDP safe >99%
18. Southdale NDP safe >99%
19. Fort Richmond NDP safe >99%
20. Riel NDP safe >99%
21. Keewatinook NDP safe >99%
22. Burrows NDP likely >99%
23. Seine River NDP likely >99%
24. Brandon East NDP likely >99%
25. Radisson NDP likely 99%
26. Assiniboia NDP likely 98%
27. Rossmere NDP likely 97%
28. River Heights NDP likely 97%
29. Kildonan-River East NDP likely 96%
30. Kirkfield Park NDP likely 95%
31. Dauphin NDP leaning 86%
32. McPhillips NDP leaning 86%
33. Tuxedo NDP leaning 80%
34. Waverley NDP leaning 77%
35. Lagimodière NDP leaning 77%
36. Brandon West Toss up 65%
37. Selkirk Toss up 44%
38. Interlake-Gimli Toss up 32%
39. Dawson Trail PC leaning 22%
40. Roblin PC leaning 18%
41. Springfield-Ritchot PC likely 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Notre Dame NDP safe
2. Flin Flon NDP safe
3. Wolseley NDP safe
4. Point Douglas NDP safe
5. Union Station NDP safe
6. Fort Rouge NDP safe
7. Thompson NDP safe
8. The Pas-Kameesak NDP safe
9. St. James NDP safe
10. Concordia NDP safe
11. Elmwood NDP safe
12. St. Johns NDP safe
13. St. Vital NDP safe
14. Fort Garry NDP safe
15. Transcona NDP safe
16. The Maples NDP safe
17. St. Boniface NDP safe
18. Southdale NDP safe
19. Fort Richmond NDP safe
20. Riel NDP safe
21. Keewatinook NDP safe
22. Burrows NDP likely
23. Seine River NDP likely
24. Brandon East NDP likely
25. Radisson NDP likely
26. Assiniboia NDP likely
27. Rossmere NDP likely
28. River Heights NDP likely
29. Kildonan-River East NDP likely
30. Kirkfield Park NDP likely
31. Dauphin NDP leaning
32. McPhillips NDP leaning
33. Tuxedo NDP leaning
34. Waverley NDP leaning
35. Lagimodière NDP leaning
36. Brandon West Toss up
37. Selkirk Toss up
38. Interlake-Gimli Toss up
39. Dawson Trail PC leaning
40. Roblin PC leaning
41. Springfield-Ritchot PC likely