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Manitoba

New Democratic Party





Last update: June 21, 2022

LeaderWab Kinew
Popular vote in 201931.6%
Current vote projection41.3% ± 4.1%
Current number of MP's18
Current seat projection30 ± 5



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Notre Dame NDP safe >99%
2. Flin Flon NDP safe >99%
3. Keewatinook NDP safe >99%
4. Point Douglas NDP safe >99%
5. The Pas-Kameesak NDP safe >99%
6. Concordia NDP safe >99%
7. Thompson NDP safe >99%
8. Fort Rouge NDP safe >99%
9. Union Station NDP safe >99%
10. St. Johns NDP safe >99%
11. St. James NDP safe >99%
12. Elmwood NDP safe >99%
13. Wolseley NDP safe >99%
14. Transcona NDP safe >99%
15. St. Vital NDP safe >99%
16. Fort Garry NDP safe >99%
17. Burrows NDP safe >99%
18. The Maples NDP safe >99%
19. Southdale NDP likely >99%
20. McPhillips NDP likely 99%
21. Dauphin NDP likely 99%
22. Rossmere NDP likely 99%
23. Assiniboia NDP likely 98%
24. Radisson NDP likely 96%
25. Riel NDP likely 95%
26. Kildonan-River East NDP likely 92%
27. Selkirk NDP likely 92%
28. Brandon East NDP leaning 85%
29. Seine River Toss up 61%
30. Waverley Toss up 59%
31. Interlake-Gimli Toss up 52%
32. Lagimodière Toss up 34%
33. St. Boniface LIB leaning 21%
34. Fort Richmond Toss up 20%
35. Kirkfield Park PC leaning 19%
36. Tyndall Park LIB leaning 17%
37. Tuxedo PC likely 2%
38. Red River North PC likely 1%
39. Dawson Trail PC likely <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Notre Dame NDP safe
2. Flin Flon NDP safe
3. Keewatinook NDP safe
4. Point Douglas NDP safe
5. The Pas-Kameesak NDP safe
6. Concordia NDP safe
7. Thompson NDP safe
8. Fort Rouge NDP safe
9. Union Station NDP safe
10. St. Johns NDP safe
11. St. James NDP safe
12. Elmwood NDP safe
13. Wolseley NDP safe
14. Transcona NDP safe
15. St. Vital NDP safe
16. Fort Garry NDP safe
17. Burrows NDP safe
18. The Maples NDP safe
19. Southdale NDP likely
20. McPhillips NDP likely
21. Dauphin NDP likely
22. Rossmere NDP likely
23. Assiniboia NDP likely
24. Radisson NDP likely
25. Riel NDP likely
26. Kildonan-River East NDP likely
27. Selkirk NDP likely
28. Brandon East NDP leaning
29. Seine River Toss up
30. Waverley Toss up
31. Interlake-Gimli Toss up
32. Lagimodière Toss up
33. St. Boniface LIB leaning
34. Fort Richmond Toss up
35. Kirkfield Park PC leaning
36. Tyndall Park LIB leaning
37. Tuxedo PC likely
38. Red River North PC likely
39. Dawson Trail PC likely