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Manitoba


New Democratic Party





Last update: September 13, 2025

LeaderWab Kinew
Popular vote in 202345.6%
Current vote projection50.7% ± 4.2%
Current number of MP's34
Current seat projection39 [35-41]

1. Wolseley 2. Notre Dame 3. Point Douglas 4. Fort Rouge 5. Union Station 6. Flin Flon 7. St. Johns 8. Thompson 9. The Pas-Kameesak 10. St. James 11. Concordia 12. Elmwood 13. Fort Garry 14. The Maples 15. St. Vital 16. St. Boniface 17. Keewatinook 18. Transcona 19. Fort Richmond 20. Riel 21. Burrows 22. Brandon East 23. Southdale 24. Seine River 25. Radisson 26. Assiniboia 27. River Heights 28. Rossmere 29. Kildonan-River East Majority: 29 seats 30. Kirkfield Park 31. Dauphin 32. McPhillips 33. Tuxedo 34. Waverley 35. Lagimodière 36. Brandon West 37. Selkirk 38. Interlake-Gimli 39. Dawson Trail 40. Roblin 41. Springfield-Ritchot 42. Red River North 43. Tyndall Park 44. Lac du Bonnet 45. Spruce Woods 46. Portage la Prairie 47. Riding Mountain 48. Swan River 49. Lakeside 50. Fort Whyte 51. Turtle Mountain 52. La Vérendrye 53. Agassiz 54. Midland 55. Morden-Winkler 56. Borderland 57. Steinbach NDP The path to 29 seats 338Canada Manitoba projection September 13, 2025

Vote projection | September 13, 2025

41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 56% 57% 58% 59% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 46.5% ▼ 50.7% ± 4.2% ▼ Max. 54.9% ▼ Probabilities % NDP

Seat projection | September 13, 2025

31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 35 ▼ 39 ▼ Max. 41 ▼ Probabilities % NDP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Notre Dame NDP safe >99%
2. Flin Flon NDP safe >99%
3. Wolseley NDP safe >99%
4. Point Douglas NDP safe >99%
5. Union Station NDP safe >99%
6. Fort Rouge NDP safe >99%
7. Thompson NDP safe >99%
8. The Pas-Kameesak NDP safe >99%
9. St. James NDP safe >99%
10. Concordia NDP safe >99%
11. Elmwood NDP safe >99%
12. St. Vital NDP safe >99%
13. St. Johns NDP safe >99%
14. Fort Garry NDP safe >99%
15. Transcona NDP safe >99%
16. The Maples NDP safe >99%
17. Riel NDP safe >99%
18. St. Boniface NDP safe >99%
19. Fort Richmond NDP safe >99%
20. Seine River NDP safe >99%
21. Southdale NDP safe >99%
22. Burrows NDP safe >99%
23. Brandon East NDP safe >99%
24. Keewatinook NDP safe >99%
25. Assiniboia NDP likely >99%
26. Radisson NDP likely >99%
27. River Heights NDP likely >99%
28. Rossmere NDP likely >99%
29. Kildonan-River East NDP likely 100%
30. Kirkfield Park NDP likely 99%
31. Dauphin NDP likely 97%
32. McPhillips NDP likely 97%
33. Tuxedo NDP likely 95%
34. Lagimodière NDP likely 94%
35. Waverley NDP likely 93%
36. Brandon West NDP leaning 88%
37. Selkirk NDP leaning 74%
38. Interlake-Gimli Toss up 64%
39. Dawson Trail Toss up 51%
40. Roblin Toss up 46%
41. Springfield-Ritchot PC likely 5%
42. Red River North PC likely 4%
43. Tyndall Park LIB likely 1%