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Manitoba


New Democratic Party





Last update: October 7, 2023

LeaderWab Kinew
Popular vote in 201931.6%
Current vote projection45.9% ± 0.6%
Current number of MP's34
Current seat projection34 [32-35]

1. Wolseley 2. Notre Dame 3. Point Douglas 4. Fort Rouge 5. Union Station 6. Flin Flon 7. St. Johns 8. Thompson 9. The Pas-Kameesak 10. St. James 11. Concordia 12. Elmwood 13. The Maples 14. Fort Garry 15. St. Vital 16. Keewatinook 17. Transcona 18. St. Boniface 19. Fort Richmond 20. Riel 21. Brandon East 22. Southdale 23. Burrows 24. Seine River 25. Radisson 26. Assiniboia 27. Rossmere 28. Kildonan-River East 29. Kirkfield Park Majority: 29 seats 30. River Heights 31. Dauphin 32. McPhillips 33. Waverley 34. Lagimodière 35. Brandon West 36. Tuxedo 37. Selkirk 38. Interlake-Gimli 39. Dawson Trail 40. Roblin 41. Springfield-Ritchot 42. Red River North 43. Lac du Bonnet 44. Tyndall Park 45. Portage la Prairie 46. Riding Mountain 47. Fort Whyte 48. Swan River 49. Lakeside 50. Spruce Woods 51. Turtle Mountain 52. La Vérendrye 53. Agassiz 54. Midland 55. Morden-Winkler 56. Borderland 57. Steinbach NDP The path to 29 seats 338Canada Manitoba projection October 7, 2023

Vote projection | October 7, 2023

45% 46% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 45.3% 45.9% ± 0.6% Max. 46.4% Probabilities % NDP

Seat projection | October 7, 2023

29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Majority 29 seats Min. 32 34 Max. 35 Probabilities % NDP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Notre Dame NDP safe >99%
2. Flin Flon NDP safe >99%
3. Wolseley NDP safe >99%
4. Point Douglas NDP safe >99%
5. Union Station NDP safe >99%
6. Fort Rouge NDP safe >99%
7. Thompson NDP safe >99%
8. The Pas-Kameesak NDP safe >99%
9. St. James NDP safe >99%
10. Concordia NDP safe >99%
11. Elmwood NDP safe >99%
12. St. Johns NDP safe >99%
13. St. Vital NDP safe >99%
14. Fort Garry NDP safe >99%
15. Transcona NDP safe >99%
16. The Maples NDP safe >99%
17. Riel NDP safe >99%
18. Fort Richmond NDP safe >99%
19. St. Boniface NDP safe >99%
20. Southdale NDP safe >99%
21. Seine River NDP safe >99%
22. Keewatinook NDP safe >99%
23. Burrows NDP likely >99%
24. Brandon East NDP likely >99%
25. Radisson NDP likely 99%
26. Assiniboia NDP likely 99%
27. Rossmere NDP likely 98%
28. Kildonan-River East NDP likely 96%
29. Kirkfield Park NDP likely 95%
30. River Heights NDP likely 94%
31. Dauphin NDP leaning 78%
32. McPhillips NDP leaning 77%
33. Waverley Toss up 61%
34. Lagimodière Toss up 58%
35. Brandon West Toss up 40%
36. Tuxedo PC leaning 23%
37. Selkirk PC leaning 12%
38. Interlake-Gimli PC likely 5%
39. Dawson Trail PC likely 2%
40. Roblin PC likely 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Notre Dame NDP safe
2. Flin Flon NDP safe
3. Wolseley NDP safe
4. Point Douglas NDP safe
5. Union Station NDP safe
6. Fort Rouge NDP safe
7. Thompson NDP safe
8. The Pas-Kameesak NDP safe
9. St. James NDP safe
10. Concordia NDP safe
11. Elmwood NDP safe
12. St. Johns NDP safe
13. St. Vital NDP safe
14. Fort Garry NDP safe
15. Transcona NDP safe
16. The Maples NDP safe
17. Riel NDP safe
18. Fort Richmond NDP safe
19. St. Boniface NDP safe
20. Southdale NDP safe
21. Seine River NDP safe
22. Keewatinook NDP safe
23. Burrows NDP likely
24. Brandon East NDP likely
25. Radisson NDP likely
26. Assiniboia NDP likely
27. Rossmere NDP likely
28. Kildonan-River East NDP likely
29. Kirkfield Park NDP likely
30. River Heights NDP likely
31. Dauphin NDP leaning
32. McPhillips NDP leaning
33. Waverley Toss up
34. Lagimodière Toss up
35. Brandon West Toss up
36. Tuxedo PC leaning
37. Selkirk PC leaning
38. Interlake-Gimli PC likely
39. Dawson Trail PC likely
40. Roblin PC likely