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Last update: December 13, 2020
| Leader | Wab Kinew |
| Popular vote in 2019 | 31.6% |
| Current vote projection | 38.0% ± 5.2% |
| Current number of MP's | 18 |
| Current seat projection | 26 ± 9 |
Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the New Democratic Party
| Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Notre Dame | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 2. | Keewatinook | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 3. | Flin Flon | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 4. | Point Douglas | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 5. | Concordia | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 6. | The Pas-Kameesak | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 7. | Thompson | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 8. | St. Johns | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 9. | Union Station | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 10. | Fort Rouge | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 11. | Elmwood | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 12. | St. James | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 13. | St. Vital | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 14. | Burrows | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 15. | Fort Garry | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 16. | Wolseley | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 17. | Transcona | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 18. | The Maples | |
NDP likely | >99% |
| 19. | Southdale |  |
NDP leaning | 84% |
| 20. | Dauphin | |
NDP leaning | 82% |
| 21. | Rossmere | |
NDP leaning | 75% |
| 22. | Assiniboia | |
NDP leaning | 71% |
| 23. | McPhillips | |
Toss up | 69% |
| 24. | Radisson | |
Toss up | 60% |
| 25. | Riel | |
Toss up | 56% |
| 26. | Selkirk | |
Toss up | 55% |
| 27. | Kildonan-River East | |
Toss up | 49% |
| 28. | Brandon East | |
Toss up | 46% |
| 29. | St. Boniface |  |
Toss up | 43% |
| 30. | Waverley | |
PC leaning | 28% |
| 31. | Interlake-Gimli | |
PC leaning | 25% |
| 32. | Seine River | |
PC leaning | 19% |
| 33. | Lagimodière | |
PC likely | 10% |
| 34. | Tyndall Park | |
LIB likely | 7% |
| 35. | Kirkfield Park | |
PC likely | 5% |
| 36. | Fort Richmond | |
Toss up | 4% |
| Rank | Electoral districts | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Notre Dame | NDP safe |
| 2. | Keewatinook | NDP safe |
| 3. | Flin Flon | NDP safe |
| 4. | Point Douglas | NDP safe |
| 5. | Concordia | NDP safe |
| 6. | The Pas-Kameesak | NDP safe |
| 7. | Thompson | NDP safe |
| 8. | St. Johns | NDP safe |
| 9. | Union Station | NDP safe |
| 10. | Fort Rouge | NDP safe |
| 11. | Elmwood | NDP safe |
| 12. | St. James | NDP safe |
| 13. | St. Vital | NDP safe |
| 14. | Burrows | NDP safe |
| 15. | Fort Garry | NDP safe |
| 16. | Wolseley | NDP safe |
| 17. | Transcona | NDP safe |
| 18. | The Maples | NDP likely |
| 19. | Southdale | NDP leaning |
| 20. | Dauphin | NDP leaning |
| 21. | Rossmere | NDP leaning |
| 22. | Assiniboia | NDP leaning |
| 23. | McPhillips | Toss up |
| 24. | Radisson | Toss up |
| 25. | Riel | Toss up |
| 26. | Selkirk | Toss up |
| 27. | Kildonan-River East | Toss up |
| 28. | Brandon East | Toss up |
| 29. | St. Boniface | Toss up |
| 30. | Waverley | PC leaning |
| 31. | Interlake-Gimli | PC leaning |
| 32. | Seine River | PC leaning |
| 33. | Lagimodière | PC likely |
| 34. | Tyndall Park | LIB likely |
| 35. | Kirkfield Park | PC likely |
| 36. | Fort Richmond | Toss up |