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Manitoba


Dauphin


MLA: Ron Kostyshyn (NDP)


Latest projection: June 19, 2024

NDP leaning
Dauphin 54% ± 8%▲ NDP 46% ± 8%▼ PC PC 2019 50.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 19, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Dauphin 86%▲ NDP 14%▼ PC <1% INDOdds of winning | June 19, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).

2023 Election Candidates | Dauphin


PC Party of Manitoba Gord Wood
Manitoba NDP Ron Kostyshyn


Popular vote projection | Dauphin

PC 46% ± 8% NDP 54% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Dauphin 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2023 PC NDP June 19, 2024 2023-09-16 NDP 56% PC 44% 2023-09-16 2023-09-21 NDP 62% PC 38% 2023-09-21 2023-09-24 NDP 62% PC 38% 2023-09-24 2023-10-02 NDP 61% PC 39% 2023-10-02 2023-10-03 NDP 60% PC 40% 2023-10-03 2023-10-07 NDP 52% PC 48% 2023-10-07 2024-06-19 NDP 54% PC 46% 2024-06-19

Odds of winning | Dauphin

LIB <1% PC 14% NDP 86% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2023 LIB PC NDP June 19, 2024 2023-09-16 NDP 97% PC 3% LIB <1% 2023-09-16 2023-09-21 NDP >99% PC <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-21 2023-09-24 NDP >99% PC <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-24 2023-10-02 NDP >99% PC <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-02 2023-10-03 NDP >99% PC <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-10-07 NDP 78% PC 22% LIB <1% 2023-10-07 2024-06-19 NDP 86% PC 14% LIB <1% 2024-06-19

Recent electoral history | Dauphin



2019 Proj. PC 50.5% 46% ± 8% NDP 42.4% 54% ± 8% LIB 7.1% 0% ± 0%