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Manitoba

Recent electoral history | Notre Dame


2019 2023 Projection NDP 79% ± 7% 65.0% 75.7% PC 12% ± 5% 15.1% 14.4% LIB 5% ± 4% 13.7% 6.2% GRN 2% ± 2% 5.1% 2.1%

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338Canada Notre Dame projection

Latest update: December 20, 2025

Notre Dame 72% 86% 79% ± 7% NDP 7% 18% 12% ± 5% PC 1% 9% 5% ± 4% LIB NDP 2019 75.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Notre Dame >99% NDP <1% PC <1% LIB Odds of winning | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

338Canada Manitoba Projection | Notre Dame

Odds of winning | Notre Dame