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Manitoba


Notre Dame


MLA: Malaya Marcelino (NDP)


Latest projection: October 7, 2023

NDP safe
Notre Dame 76% ± 6%▼ NDP 14% ± 5%▲ PC 6% ± 3%▼ LIB NDP 2019 65.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 7, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Notre Dame >99% NDP <1% PC <1% LIB Odds of winning | October 7, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).

2023 Election Candidates | Notre Dame


PC Party of Manitoba Mufarrah Waheed
Manitoba NDP Malaya Marcelino
Manitoba Liberal Party Winston Wuttunee
Green Party of Manitoba Micah Dewey
Communist Party Andrew Taylor


Popular vote projection | Notre Dame

LIB 6% ± 3% PC 14% ± 5% NDP 76% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Notre Dame 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 Election 2023 LIB PC NDP

Odds of winning | Notre Dame

LIB <1% PC <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 Election 2023 LIB PC NDP

Recent electoral history | Notre Dame



2019 Proj. NDP 65.0% 76% ± 6% PC 15.1% 14% ± 5% LIB 13.7% 6% ± 3% GRN 5.1% 2% ± 2%