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Manitoba

Recent electoral history | St. Vital


2019 2023 Projection NDP 65% ± 7% 44.5% 60.1% PC 26% ± 6% 34.9% 29.3% LIB 8% ± 4% 13.8% 10.6% GRN 1% ± 1% 5.5% 0.0%

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338Canada St. Vital projection

Latest update: March 22, 2026

St. Vital 58% 72% 65% ± 7% NDP 20% 32% 26% ± 6% PC 4% 12% 8% ± 4% LIB NDP 2019 60.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 22, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% St. Vital >99% NDP <1% PC <1% LIB Odds of winning | March 22, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

338Canada Manitoba Projection | St. Vital

Odds of winning | St. Vital