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Manitoba

Recent electoral history | Assiniboia


2019 2023 Projection NDP 55% ± 7% 35.5% 50.0% PC 36% ± 7% 44.3% 40.3% LIB 8% ± 4% 13.4% 9.7% GRN 1% ± 1% 6.9% 0.0%

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338Canada Assiniboia projection

Latest update: March 22, 2026

Assiniboia 48% 62% 55% ± 7% NDP 29% 43% 36% ± 7% PC 4% 12% 8% ± 4% LIB NDP 2019 50.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 22, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Assiniboia >99% NDP <1% PC <1% LIB Odds of winning | March 22, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

338Canada Manitoba Projection | Assiniboia

Odds of winning | Assiniboia