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Manitoba


St. Boniface


MLA: Robert Loiselle (NDP)


Latest projection: October 7, 2023

NDP safe
St. Boniface 53% ± 5%▲ NDP 33% ± 4%▼ LIB 13% ± 3%▼ PC LIB 2019 41.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 7, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% St. Boniface >99%▲ NDP <1%▼ LIB <1% PC Odds of winning | October 7, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).

2023 Election Candidates | St. Boniface


PC Party of Manitoba Kiratveer Hayer
Manitoba NDP Robert Loiselle
Manitoba Liberal Party Dougald Lamont
Communist Party Damon Bath


Popular vote projection | St. Boniface

LIB 33% ± 4% PC 13% ± 3% NDP 53% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | St. Boniface 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 Election 2023 LIB PC NDP

Odds of winning | St. Boniface

LIB <1% PC <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 Election 2023 LIB PC NDP

Recent electoral history | St. Boniface



2019 Proj. LIB 41.7% 33% ± 4% NDP 29.9% 53% ± 5% PC 19.1% 13% ± 3% GRN 8.5% 0% ± 0%