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Manitoba


St. Johns


MLA: Nahanni Fontaine (NDP)


Latest projection: October 7, 2023

NDP safe
St. Johns 61% ± 6%▼ NDP 16% ± 4%▼ PC 8% ± 3% LIB NDP 2019 51.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 7, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% St. Johns >99% NDP <1% PC <1% LIB Odds of winning | October 7, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).

2023 Election Candidates | St. Johns


PC Party of Manitoba Teddy Rubenstein
Manitoba NDP Nahanni Fontaine
Manitoba Liberal Party Dennis Yaeger
Independent Patrick Allard


Popular vote projection | St. Johns

LIB 8% ± 3% PC 16% ± 4% NDP 61% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | St. Johns 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 Election 2023 LIB PC NDP

Odds of winning | St. Johns

LIB <1% PC <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 Election 2023 LIB PC NDP

Recent electoral history | St. Johns



2019 Proj. NDP 51.9% 61% ± 6% PC 24.5% 16% ± 4% LIB 16.2% 8% ± 3% GRN 7.4% 0% ± 0%