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Manitoba


Portage la Prairie


MLA: Jeff Bereza (PC)


Latest projection: June 19, 2024

PC safe
Portage la Prairie 58% ± 8%▼ PC 32% ± 7%▲ NDP 6% ± 5% GRN 4% ± 3%▼ LIB PC 2019 65.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 19, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Portage la Prairie >99% PC <1% NDP <1% GRN Odds of winning | June 19, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).

2023 Election Candidates | Portage la Prairie


PC Party of Manitoba Jeff Bereza
Manitoba NDP Acacia Weselake
Manitoba Liberal Party Ralph Dooley
Green Party of Manitoba Arishya Aggarwal


Popular vote projection | Portage la Prairie

LIB 4% ± 3% PC 58% ± 8% NDP 32% ± 7% GRN 6% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Portage la Prairie 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2023 LIB PC NDP GRN June 19, 2024 2023-09-16 PC 61% NDP 30% LIB 8% GRN 2% 2023-09-16 2023-09-21 PC 57% NDP 35% LIB 7% GRN 2% 2023-09-21 2023-09-24 PC 57% NDP 35% LIB 7% GRN 2% 2023-09-24 2023-10-02 PC 55% NDP 36% LIB 7% GRN 2% 2023-10-02 2023-10-03 PC 56% NDP 36% LIB 7% GRN 2% 2023-10-03 2023-10-07 PC 60% NDP 30% GRN 6% LIB 5% 2023-10-07 2024-06-19 PC 58% NDP 32% GRN 6% LIB 4% 2024-06-19

Odds of winning | Portage la Prairie

LIB <1% PC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2023 LIB PC NDP June 19, 2024 2023-09-16 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-16 2023-09-21 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-21 2023-09-24 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-24 2023-10-02 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-02 2023-10-03 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-10-07 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-07 2024-06-19 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-19

Recent electoral history | Portage la Prairie



2019 Proj. PC 65.7% 58% ± 8% NDP 22.0% 32% ± 7% LIB 12.3% 4% ± 3% GRN 0.0% 6% ± 5%