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Manitoba


Kirkfield Park


MLA: Logan Oxenham (NDP)


Latest projection: June 18, 2025

NDP safe
Kirkfield Park 53% ± 7%▲ NDP 33% ± 6%▼ PC 12% ± 5%▼ LIB PC 2019 50.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 18, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Kirkfield Park >99%▲ NDP <1%▼ PC <1% LIB Odds of winning | June 18, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).

2023 Election Candidates | Kirkfield Park


PC Party of Manitoba Kevin Klein
Manitoba NDP Logan Oxenham
Manitoba Liberal Party Rhonda Nichol
Green Party of Manitoba Dennis Bayomi


Popular vote projection | Kirkfield Park

LIB 12% ± 5% PC 33% ± 6% NDP 53% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Kirkfield Park 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2023 LIB PC NDP June 18, 2025 2023-09-16 PC 44% NDP 34% LIB 20% 2023-09-16 2023-09-21 PC 40% NDP 39% LIB 18% 2023-09-21 2023-09-24 PC 40% NDP 39% LIB 18% 2023-09-24 2023-10-02 NDP 40% PC 39% LIB 18% 2023-10-02 2023-10-03 NDP 40% PC 39% LIB 18% 2023-10-03 2023-10-07 NDP 45% PC 39% LIB 15% 2023-10-07 2024-06-19 NDP 47% PC 38% LIB 13% 2024-06-19 2025-06-18 NDP 53% PC 33% LIB 12% 2025-06-18

Odds of winning | Kirkfield Park

LIB <1% PC <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2023 LIB PC NDP June 18, 2025 2023-09-16 PC 96% NDP 4% LIB <1% 2023-09-16 2023-09-21 PC 53% NDP 47% LIB <1% 2023-09-21 2023-09-24 PC 54% NDP 46% LIB <1% 2023-09-24 2023-10-02 NDP 59% PC 41% LIB <1% 2023-10-02 2023-10-03 NDP 60% PC 40% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-10-07 NDP 95% PC 5% LIB <1% 2023-10-07 2024-06-19 NDP 95% PC 5% LIB <1% 2024-06-19 2025-06-18 NDP >99% PC <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-18

Recent electoral history | Kirkfield Park



2019 Proj. PC 50.4% 33% ± 6% NDP 25.7% 53% ± 7% LIB 15.7% 12% ± 5% GRN 8.3% 2% ± 2%