New Democratic Party

Latest update: May 5, 2024

Leader	Jagmeet Singh
National popular vote in 2021	17.8%
Current vote projection	16.8% ± 2.8%
Current number of MPs	TBD
Current seat projection	19 [12-30]

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | May 5, 2024

Seat projection | May 5, 2024

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Hamilton Centre	NDP safe hold	>99%
2.	Vancouver East	NDP safe hold	>99%
3.	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	NDP safe hold	>99%
4.	Edmonton Strathcona	NDP safe hold	>99%
5.	Winnipeg Centre	NDP safe hold	>99%
6.	Windsor West	NDP safe hold	>99%
7.	Vancouver Kingsway	NDP safe hold	>99%
8.	Elmwood—Transcona	NDP likely hold	99%
9.	Nunavut	NDP likely hold	98%
10.	Victoria	NDP likely hold	98%
11.	London—Fanshawe	NDP likely hold	97%
12.	Churchill—Kewatinook Aski	NDP likely hold	97%
13.	Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park	NDP likely gain	92%
14.	Davenport	NDP leaning gain	81%
15.	Spadina—Harbourfront	NDP leaning gain	80%
16.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville	NDP leaning hold	70%
17.	Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk	Toss up CPC/NDP	69%
18.	Northwest Territories	Toss up LPC/NDP	52%
19.	Toronto—Danforth	Toss up LPC/NDP	52%
20.	Ottawa Centre	Toss up LPC/NDP	50%
21.	Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke	Toss up CPC/NDP	44%
22.	Hamilton Mountain	Toss up CPC/NDP	42%
23.	London Centre	Toss up CPC/NDP	34%
24.	Edmonton Griesbach	Toss up CPC/NDP	31%
25.	Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt	CPC leaning gain	21%
26.	Halifax	LPC leaning hold	21%
27.	Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore	CPC leaning gain	20%
28.	Kingston and the Islands	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	18%
29.	Yukon	CPC leaning gain	18%
30.	Thunder Bay—Superior North	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	17%
31.	St. John’s East	LPC leaning hold	16%
32.	Burnaby Central	CPC leaning gain	15%
33.	University—Rosedale	LPC leaning hold	11%
34.	Sudbury	CPC leaning gain	10%
35.	Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River	Toss up LPC/CPC	8%
36.	Berthier—Maskinongé	BQ likely hold	7%
37.	Laurier—Sainte-Marie	LPC likely hold	6%
38.	Edmonton Centre	CPC likely hold	4%
39.	Dartmouth—Cole Harbour	LPC likely hold	3%
40.	Saskatoon West	CPC likely hold	2%
41.	Toronto Centre	LPC likely hold	2%
42.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford	CPC likely gain	2%

Rank	Electoral districts	Projection
1.	Hamilton Centre	NDP safe hold
2.	Vancouver East	NDP safe hold
3.	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	NDP safe hold
4.	Edmonton Strathcona	NDP safe hold
5.	Winnipeg Centre	NDP safe hold
6.	Windsor West	NDP safe hold
7.	Vancouver Kingsway	NDP safe hold
8.	Elmwood—Transcona	NDP likely hold
9.	Nunavut	NDP likely hold
10.	Victoria	NDP likely hold
11.	London—Fanshawe	NDP likely hold
12.	Churchill—Kewatinook Aski	NDP likely hold
13.	Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park	NDP likely gain
14.	Davenport	NDP leaning gain
15.	Spadina—Harbourfront	NDP leaning gain
16.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville	NDP leaning hold
17.	Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk	Toss up CPC/NDP
18.	Northwest Territories	Toss up LPC/NDP
19.	Toronto—Danforth	Toss up LPC/NDP
20.	Ottawa Centre	Toss up LPC/NDP
21.	Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke	Toss up CPC/NDP
22.	Hamilton Mountain	Toss up CPC/NDP
23.	London Centre	Toss up CPC/NDP
24.	Edmonton Griesbach	Toss up CPC/NDP
25.	Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt	CPC leaning gain
26.	Halifax	LPC leaning hold
27.	Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore	CPC leaning gain
28.	Kingston and the Islands	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
29.	Yukon	CPC leaning gain
30.	Thunder Bay—Superior North	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
31.	St. John’s East	LPC leaning hold
32.	Burnaby Central	CPC leaning gain
33.	University—Rosedale	LPC leaning hold
34.	Sudbury	CPC leaning gain
35.	Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River	Toss up LPC/CPC
36.	Berthier—Maskinongé	BQ likely hold
37.	Laurier—Sainte-Marie	LPC likely hold
38.	Edmonton Centre	CPC likely hold
39.	Dartmouth—Cole Harbour	LPC likely hold
40.	Saskatoon West	CPC likely hold
41.	Toronto Centre	LPC likely hold
42.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford	CPC likely gain