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Quebec

Mercier


MNA: Ruba Ghazal

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
QS likely hold
Mercier 47% ± 8% QS 29% ± 7%▲ PQ 14% ± 5% LIB 5% ± 3%▼ CPQ 3% ± 2%▼ CAQ QS 2022 53.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Mercier >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Mercier

LIB 14% ± 5% PQ 29% ± 7% QS 47% ± 8% CPQ 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Mercier 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 QS 57% LIB 10% CPQ 8% PQ 7% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 QS 57% LIB 10% CPQ 9% PQ 6% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 QS 56% CPQ 10% LIB 10% PQ 6% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 QS 56% CPQ 10% LIB 10% PQ 6% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 QS 56% CPQ 10% LIB 10% PQ 6% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 QS 56% CPQ 10% LIB 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 QS 56% CPQ 10% LIB 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 QS 56% CPQ 11% LIB 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 QS 55% CPQ 11% LIB 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 QS 55% CPQ 10% LIB 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 QS 55% CPQ 10% LIB 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 QS 55% CPQ 10% LIB 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 QS 55% CPQ 10% LIB 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 QS 53% CPQ 12% LIB 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 QS 53% CPQ 12% LIB 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 QS 52% CPQ 13% LIB 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 QS 52% CPQ 13% LIB 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 QS 52% CPQ 13% LIB 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 QS 52% CPQ 13% LIB 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 QS 56% CPQ 11% LIB 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 QS 56% CPQ 11% LIB 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 QS 56% CPQ 11% LIB 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 QS 56% CPQ 11% LIB 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 QS 55% CPQ 11% LIB 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 QS 54% CPQ 11% LIB 9% PQ 9% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 QS 54% CPQ 11% LIB 9% PQ 9% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 QS 54% CPQ 11% LIB 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 QS 54% CPQ 11% LIB 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 QS 54% CPQ 11% LIB 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 QS 54% CPQ 11% LIB 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 QS 54% CPQ 11% LIB 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 QS 54% CPQ 11% PQ 10% LIB 10% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 QS 54% CPQ 11% PQ 10% LIB 10% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 QS 54% CPQ 11% PQ 10% LIB 10% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 QS 55% CPQ 11% PQ 10% LIB 10% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 QS 54% CPQ 11% PQ 10% LIB 10% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 QS 54% PQ 11% CPQ 10% LIB 10% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 QS 54% PQ 15% LIB 14% CPQ 4% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 QS 53% PQ 15% LIB 14% CPQ 4% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 QS 53% PQ 15% LIB 14% CPQ 4% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 QS 55% PQ 16% LIB 13% CPQ 3% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 QS 56% PQ 16% LIB 13% CPQ 3% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 QS 56% PQ 17% LIB 13% CPQ 2% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 QS 55% PQ 18% LIB 12% CPQ 2% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 QS 55% PQ 18% LIB 12% CPQ 2% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 QS 53% PQ 19% LIB 11% CPQ 3% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 QS 52% PQ 17% LIB 13% CPQ 4% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 QS 52% PQ 17% LIB 13% CPQ 4% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 QS 50% PQ 18% LIB 14% CPQ 4% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 QS 50% PQ 19% LIB 15% CPQ 4% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 QS 51% PQ 26% LIB 13% CPQ 3% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 QS 55% PQ 24% LIB 10% CPQ 3% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 QS 53% PQ 26% LIB 10% CPQ 3% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 53% PQ 26% LIB 10% CPQ 3% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 54% PQ 27% LIB 10% CPQ 3% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 QS 50% PQ 28% LIB 13% CPQ 3% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 QS 47% PQ 27% LIB 15% CPQ 3% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS 48% PQ 27% LIB 15% CPQ 3% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS 49% PQ 27% LIB 14% CPQ 3% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 QS 50% PQ 26% LIB 14% CPQ 4% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 QS 47% PQ 27% LIB 14% CPQ 6% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 QS 47% PQ 29% LIB 14% CPQ 5% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Mercier

LIB <1% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Mercier



2014 2018 2022 Proj. QS 44.0% 54.5% 53.9% 47% ± 8% PQ 19.4% 12.1% 14.6% 29% ± 7% LIB 26.3% 17.7% 14.0% 14% ± 5% CAQ 7.9% 8.1% 10.3% 3% ± 2% CPQ 0.0% 0.4% 3.8% 5% ± 3% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.