logo
Quebec


Mercier


MNA: Ruba Ghazal (QS)


Latest projection: March 21, 2024

QS safe hold
Mercier 54% ± 8%▲ 27% ± 7%▲ 10% ± 4% 5% ± 3% 3% ± 2% QS 2022 53.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Mercier >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | March 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Mercier

LIB 10% ± 4% PQ 27% ± 7% CAQ 5% ± 3% QS 54% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Mercier 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS March 21, 2024

Odds of winning | Mercier

LIB <1% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS March 21, 2024

Recent electoral history | Mercier



2014 2018 2022 Proj. QS 44.0% 54.5% 53.9% 54% ± 8% PQ 19.4% 12.1% 14.6% 27% ± 7% LIB 26.3% 17.7% 14.0% 10% ± 4% CAQ 7.9% 8.1% 10.3% 5% ± 3% QCP 0.0% 0.4% 3.8% 3% ± 2% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.