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Quebec

Mercier


MNA: Ruba Ghazal (QS)
Latest projection: May 16, 2025
QS likely

Mercier 44% ± 8% QS 27% ± 7% PQ 19% ± 6%▲ LIB 4% ± 3%▼ CPQ 3% ± 2%▼ CAQ QS 2022 53.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Mercier >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | May 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).

Popular vote projection | Mercier

LIB 19% ± 6% PQ 27% ± 7% CAQ 3% ± 2% QS 44% ± 8% CPQ 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Mercier 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 QS 53% PQ 26% LIB 10% CAQ 5% CPQ 3% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 53% PQ 26% LIB 10% CAQ 5% CPQ 3% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 54% PQ 27% LIB 10% CAQ 5% CPQ 3% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 QS 50% PQ 28% LIB 13% CAQ 5% CPQ 3% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 QS 47% PQ 27% LIB 15% CAQ 5% CPQ 3% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS 48% PQ 27% LIB 15% CAQ 5% CPQ 3% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS 49% PQ 27% LIB 14% CAQ 4% CPQ 3% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 QS 50% PQ 26% LIB 14% CPQ 4% CAQ 4% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 QS 47% PQ 27% LIB 14% CPQ 6% CAQ 4% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 QS 47% PQ 29% LIB 14% CPQ 5% CAQ 3% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 QS 46% PQ 29% LIB 15% CPQ 5% CAQ 3% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 QS 46% PQ 29% LIB 15% CPQ 5% CAQ 3% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 QS 42% PQ 28% LIB 19% CPQ 6% CAQ 3% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 QS 41% PQ 28% LIB 20% CPQ 6% CAQ 3% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 QS 43% PQ 27% LIB 19% CPQ 6% CAQ 3% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 QS 44% PQ 27% LIB 18% CPQ 6% CAQ 4% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 QS 44% PQ 27% LIB 19% CPQ 4% CAQ 3% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Mercier

LIB <1% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 QS 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 QS 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Mercier



2014 2018 2022 Proj. QS 44.0% 54.5% 53.9% 44% ± 8% PQ 19.4% 12.1% 14.6% 27% ± 7% LIB 26.3% 17.7% 14.0% 19% ± 6% CAQ 7.9% 8.1% 10.3% 3% ± 2% CPQ 0.0% 0.4% 3.8% 4% ± 3% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%