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Quebec


Mercier


MNA: Ruba Ghazal (QS)


Latest projection: November 24, 2023

QS safe hold
Mercier 50% ± 8% 19% ± 6%▲ 15% ± 5%▲ 10% ± 4% 4% ± 2% QS 2022 53.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Mercier >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | November 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Mercier

LIB 15% ± 5% PQ 19% ± 6% CAQ 10% ± 4% QS 50% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Mercier 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS

Odds of winning | Mercier

LIB <1% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS

Recent electoral history | Mercier



2014 2018 2022 Proj. QS 44.0% 54.5% 53.9% 50% ± 8% PQ 19.4% 12.1% 14.6% 19% ± 6% LIB 26.3% 17.7% 14.0% 15% ± 5% CAQ 7.9% 8.1% 10.3% 10% ± 4% QCP 0.0% 0.4% 3.8% 4% ± 2% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%