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Quebec

Gouin


MNA: Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois (QS)
Latest projection: May 16, 2025
QS safe

Gouin 51% ± 8% QS 27% ± 7% PQ 12% ± 5%▲ LIB 5% ± 2% CAQ 4% ± 2% CPQ QS 2022 59.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Gouin >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | May 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).

Popular vote projection | Gouin

LIB 12% ± 5% PQ 27% ± 7% CAQ 5% ± 2% QS 51% ± 8% CPQ 4% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Gouin 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 QS 58% PQ 25% CAQ 6% LIB 6% CPQ 3% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 58% PQ 25% CAQ 6% LIB 6% CPQ 3% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 59% PQ 25% CAQ 6% LIB 6% CPQ 2% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 QS 56% PQ 26% LIB 8% CAQ 6% CPQ 2% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 QS 53% PQ 26% LIB 9% CAQ 6% CPQ 3% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS 54% PQ 26% LIB 9% CAQ 6% CPQ 3% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS 55% PQ 26% LIB 9% CAQ 5% CPQ 3% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 QS 56% PQ 25% LIB 8% CAQ 5% CPQ 3% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 QS 53% PQ 27% LIB 9% CAQ 5% CPQ 4% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 QS 53% PQ 29% LIB 9% CAQ 4% CPQ 4% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 QS 52% PQ 29% LIB 9% CAQ 4% CPQ 4% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 QS 53% PQ 28% LIB 9% CAQ 4% CPQ 4% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 QS 49% PQ 28% LIB 13% CAQ 5% CPQ 4% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 QS 48% PQ 28% LIB 13% CPQ 5% CAQ 4% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 QS 50% PQ 27% LIB 13% CAQ 5% CPQ 4% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 QS 51% PQ 27% LIB 11% CAQ 5% CPQ 4% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 QS 51% PQ 27% LIB 12% CAQ 5% CPQ 4% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Gouin

LIB <1% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Gouin



2014 2018 2022 Proj. QS 51.0% 59.1% 59.4% 51% ± 8% PQ 20.3% 14.9% 13.6% 27% ± 7% CAQ 8.7% 9.9% 12.4% 5% ± 2% LIB 17.8% 11.5% 8.4% 12% ± 5% CPQ 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 4% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%