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Quebec

Gouin


MNA: Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois

Latest projection: December 8, 2024
QS safe hold
Gouin 53% ± 8%▲ QS 28% ± 7%▼ PQ 9% ± 4% LIB 4% ± 2% CAQ 4% ± 2% CPQ QS 2022 59.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Gouin >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | December 8, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Gouin

LIB 9% ± 4% PQ 28% ± 7% CAQ 4% ± 2% QS 53% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Gouin 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 QS 56% CAQ 23% PQ 9% LIB 6% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 QS 56% CAQ 23% PQ 8% LIB 6% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 QS 55% CAQ 23% PQ 7% LIB 6% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 QS 55% CAQ 23% PQ 7% LIB 6% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 QS 55% CAQ 23% PQ 7% LIB 6% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 QS 55% CAQ 23% PQ 7% LIB 6% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 QS 55% CAQ 22% PQ 7% LIB 6% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 QS 55% CAQ 22% PQ 7% LIB 6% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 QS 55% CAQ 22% PQ 7% LIB 6% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 QS 54% CAQ 22% PQ 8% LIB 6% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 QS 54% CAQ 22% PQ 8% LIB 6% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 QS 55% CAQ 22% PQ 8% LIB 6% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 QS 54% CAQ 22% PQ 9% LIB 6% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 QS 53% CAQ 23% PQ 8% LIB 6% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 QS 53% CAQ 23% PQ 8% LIB 6% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 QS 52% CAQ 23% PQ 8% LIB 6% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 QS 52% CAQ 23% PQ 8% LIB 6% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 QS 52% CAQ 23% PQ 8% LIB 6% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 QS 52% CAQ 23% PQ 8% LIB 6% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 QS 56% CAQ 20% PQ 8% LIB 6% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 QS 56% CAQ 21% PQ 8% LIB 6% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 QS 56% CAQ 21% PQ 8% LIB 6% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 QS 56% CAQ 21% PQ 8% LIB 6% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 QS 55% CAQ 21% PQ 8% LIB 6% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 QS 55% CAQ 18% PQ 12% LIB 6% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 QS 55% CAQ 18% PQ 12% LIB 6% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 QS 55% CAQ 18% PQ 12% LIB 6% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 QS 55% CAQ 18% PQ 12% LIB 6% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 QS 55% CAQ 18% PQ 12% LIB 6% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 QS 55% CAQ 19% PQ 11% LIB 6% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 QS 55% CAQ 19% PQ 11% LIB 6% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 QS 55% CAQ 18% PQ 13% LIB 6% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 QS 55% CAQ 17% PQ 13% LIB 6% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 QS 55% CAQ 17% PQ 13% LIB 6% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 QS 55% CAQ 17% PQ 13% LIB 7% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 QS 55% CAQ 17% PQ 13% LIB 6% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 QS 55% CAQ 17% PQ 14% LIB 6% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 QS 59% PQ 14% CAQ 12% LIB 8% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 QS 59% PQ 14% CAQ 12% LIB 8% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 QS 59% PQ 14% CAQ 12% LIB 8% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 QS 61% PQ 15% CAQ 12% LIB 8% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 QS 62% PQ 15% CAQ 12% LIB 8% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 QS 61% PQ 16% CAQ 12% LIB 8% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 QS 61% PQ 17% CAQ 12% LIB 7% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 QS 61% PQ 17% CAQ 12% LIB 7% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 QS 59% PQ 18% CAQ 12% LIB 6% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 QS 58% PQ 16% CAQ 12% LIB 7% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 QS 58% PQ 16% CAQ 12% LIB 7% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 QS 56% PQ 17% CAQ 12% LIB 8% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 QS 56% PQ 18% CAQ 12% LIB 9% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 QS 57% PQ 24% LIB 7% CAQ 7% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 QS 61% PQ 23% LIB 6% CAQ 5% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 QS 58% PQ 25% CAQ 6% LIB 6% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 58% PQ 25% CAQ 6% LIB 6% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 59% PQ 25% CAQ 6% LIB 6% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 QS 56% PQ 26% LIB 8% CAQ 6% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 QS 53% PQ 26% LIB 9% CAQ 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS 54% PQ 26% LIB 9% CAQ 6% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS 55% PQ 26% LIB 9% CAQ 5% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 QS 56% PQ 25% LIB 8% CAQ 5% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 QS 53% PQ 27% LIB 9% CAQ 5% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 QS 53% PQ 29% LIB 9% CAQ 4% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 QS 52% PQ 29% LIB 9% CAQ 4% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 QS 53% PQ 28% LIB 9% CAQ 4% 2024-12-08

Odds of winning | Gouin

LIB <1% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08

Recent electoral history | Gouin



2014 2018 2022 Proj. QS 51.0% 59.1% 59.4% 53% ± 8% PQ 20.3% 14.9% 13.6% 28% ± 7% CAQ 8.7% 9.9% 12.4% 4% ± 2% LIB 17.8% 11.5% 8.4% 9% ± 4% CPQ 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 4% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.