New Democratic Party

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Edmonton Strathcona	NDP safe	>99%
2.	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	NDP likely	95%
3.	Winnipeg Centre	NDP leaning	89%
4.	Vancouver East	NDP leaning	88%
5.	Courtenay—Alberni	NDP leaning	86%
6.	Elmwood—Transcona	NDP leaning	73%
7.	Nunavut	Toss up LPC/NDP	66%
8.	Vancouver Kingsway	Toss up LPC/NDP	52%
9.	Hamilton Centre	Toss up LPC/NDP	37%
10.	Edmonton Griesbach	Toss up CPC/NDP	35%
11.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford	Toss up CPC/NDP	31%
12.	Windsor West	Toss up CPC/NDP	31%
13.	North Island—Powell River	CPC leaning	24%
14.	Skeena—Bulkley Valley	CPC leaning	24%
15.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville	Toss up LPC/NDP	23%
16.	London—Fanshawe	CPC leaning	23%
17.	Churchill—Keewatinook Aski	LPC likely	6%
18.	Berthier—Maskinongé	BQ leaning	3%