New Democratic Party

Latest update: April 14, 2024

Leader	Jagmeet Singh
National popular vote in 2021	17.8%
Current vote projection	18.0% ± 2.8%
Current number of MP's	25
Current seat projection	20 [13-32]

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Popular vote projection | April 14, 2024

Seat projection | April 14, 2024

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Winnipeg Centre	NDP safe hold	>99%
2.	Elmwood–Transcona	NDP safe hold	>99%
3.	Edmonton Strathcona	NDP safe hold	>99%
4.	Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie	NDP safe hold	>99%
5.	Vancouver East	NDP safe hold	>99%
6.	Hamilton Centre	NDP safe hold	>99%
7.	Churchill–Keewatinook Aski	NDP safe hold	>99%
8.	Vancouver Kingsway	NDP safe hold	>99%
9.	Victoria	NDP safe hold	>99%
10.	Windsor West	NDP safe hold	>99%
11.	Nunavut	NDP safe hold	>99%
12.	New Westminster–Burnaby	NDP safe hold	>99%
13.	London–Fanshawe	NDP likely hold	98%
14.	Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke	NDP likely hold	93%
15.	Burnaby South	NDP leaning hold	81%
16.	Edmonton Griesbach	NDP leaning hold	80%
17.	Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing	Toss up CPC/NDP	62%
18.	Northwest Territories	Toss up LPC/NDP	62%
19.	Davenport	Toss up LPC/NDP	59%
20.	Parkdale–High Park	Toss up LPC/NDP	54%
21.	Halifax	Toss up LPC/NDP	48%
22.	Toronto–Danforth	Toss up LPC/NDP	45%
23.	Spadina–Fort York	Toss up LPC/NDP	41%
24.	Cowichan–Malahat–Langford	Toss up CPC/NDP	32%
25.	St. John’s East	Toss up LPC/NDP	32%
26.	Timmins–James Bay	Toss up CPC/NDP	31%
27.	Dartmouth–Cole Harbour	LPC leaning hold	24%
28.	Yukon	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	22%
29.	Laurier–Sainte-Marie	LPC leaning hold	21%
30.	Ottawa Centre	LPC leaning hold	17%
31.	Hamilton Mountain	CPC leaning gain	11%
32.	Edmonton Centre	CPC leaning gain	10%
33.	Courtenay–Alberni	CPC likely gain	10%
34.	Vancouver Granville	CPC leaning gain	9%
35.	Outremont	LPC likely hold	8%
36.	Winnipeg North	LPC likely hold	8%
37.	Thunder Bay–Superior North	CPC leaning gain	6%
38.	Saskatoon West	CPC likely hold	6%
39.	Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook	Toss up LPC/CPC	6%
40.	Kingston and the Islands	Toss up LPC/CPC	5%
41.	Edmonton Manning	CPC likely hold	4%
42.	Windsor–Tecumseh	CPC likely gain	4%
43.	Regina–Lewvan	CPC likely hold	3%
44.	North Island–Powell River	CPC likely gain	3%
45.	Saskatoon–University	CPC likely hold	3%
46.	Vancouver Centre	LPC leaning hold	3%
47.	Hochelaga	LPC leaning hold	2%
48.	Labrador	CPC leaning gain	2%
49.	Saint Boniface–Saint Vital	LPC leaning hold	2%
50.	University–Rosedale	LPC likely hold	1%
51.	Toronto Centre	LPC likely hold	1%
52.	Port Moody–Coquitlam	CPC likely gain	1%
53.	Nickel Belt	CPC likely gain	1%

Rank	Electoral districts	Projection
1.	Winnipeg Centre	NDP safe hold
2.	Elmwood–Transcona	NDP safe hold
3.	Edmonton Strathcona	NDP safe hold
4.	Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie	NDP safe hold
5.	Vancouver East	NDP safe hold
6.	Hamilton Centre	NDP safe hold
7.	Churchill–Keewatinook Aski	NDP safe hold
8.	Vancouver Kingsway	NDP safe hold
9.	Victoria	NDP safe hold
10.	Windsor West	NDP safe hold
11.	Nunavut	NDP safe hold
12.	New Westminster–Burnaby	NDP safe hold
13.	London–Fanshawe	NDP likely hold
14.	Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke	NDP likely hold
15.	Burnaby South	NDP leaning hold
16.	Edmonton Griesbach	NDP leaning hold
17.	Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing	Toss up CPC/NDP
18.	Northwest Territories	Toss up LPC/NDP
19.	Davenport	Toss up LPC/NDP
20.	Parkdale–High Park	Toss up LPC/NDP
21.	Halifax	Toss up LPC/NDP
22.	Toronto–Danforth	Toss up LPC/NDP
23.	Spadina–Fort York	Toss up LPC/NDP
24.	Cowichan–Malahat–Langford	Toss up CPC/NDP
25.	St. John’s East	Toss up LPC/NDP
26.	Timmins–James Bay	Toss up CPC/NDP
27.	Dartmouth–Cole Harbour	LPC leaning hold
28.	Yukon	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
29.	Laurier–Sainte-Marie	LPC leaning hold
30.	Ottawa Centre	LPC leaning hold
31.	Hamilton Mountain	CPC leaning gain
32.	Edmonton Centre	CPC leaning gain
33.	Courtenay–Alberni	CPC likely gain
34.	Vancouver Granville	CPC leaning gain
35.	Outremont	LPC likely hold
36.	Winnipeg North	LPC likely hold
37.	Thunder Bay–Superior North	CPC leaning gain
38.	Saskatoon West	CPC likely hold
39.	Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook	Toss up LPC/CPC
40.	Kingston and the Islands	Toss up LPC/CPC
41.	Edmonton Manning	CPC likely hold
42.	Windsor–Tecumseh	CPC likely gain
43.	Regina–Lewvan	CPC likely hold
44.	North Island–Powell River	CPC likely gain
45.	Saskatoon–University	CPC likely hold
46.	Vancouver Centre	LPC leaning hold
47.	Hochelaga	LPC leaning hold
48.	Labrador	CPC leaning gain
49.	Saint Boniface–Saint Vital	LPC leaning hold
50.	University–Rosedale	LPC likely hold
51.	Toronto Centre	LPC likely hold
52.	Port Moody–Coquitlam	CPC likely gain
53.	Nickel Belt	CPC likely gain