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New brunswick

New Brunswick Liberal Association





Last update: October 2, 2024

LeaderSusan Holt
Popular vote in 202034.4%
Current vote projection41.5% ± 4.8%
Current number of MP's16
Current seat projection23 ± 6

Vote projection | October 2, 2024

31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2020 34.4% Min. 36.7% ▼ 41.5% ± 4.8% ▼ Max. 46.4% ▼ Probabilities % LIB

Seat projection | October 2, 2024

9 14 19 24 29 34 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 17 ▼ 2020 17 seats 22 ▼ Majority 25 seats Max. 29 ▼ Probabilities % LIB

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Brunswick Liberal Association



Rank Electoral districts 2020 winner
(transposed onto new map)		 Last projection Odds of winning
1. Shippagan—Les-Îles LIB safe >99%
2. Caraquet LIB safe >99%
3. Edmundston—Vallée-des-Rivières LIB safe >99%
4. Hautes-Terre-Nepisiguit LIB safe >99%
5. Dieppe—Memramcook LIB safe >99%
6. Tracadie LIB safe >99%
7. Restigouche East LIB safe >99%
8. Restigouche West LIB safe >99%
9. Beausoleil—Grand-Bouctouche—Kent LIB safe >99%
10. Miramichi Bay—Neguac LIB safe >99%
11. Madawaska-Les-Lacs—Edmundston LIB safe >99%
12. Belle-Baie-Belledune LIB safe >99%
13. Shediac—Cap-Acadie LIB safe >99%
14. Moncton East LIB safe >99%
15. Shediac Bay—Dieppe LIB safe >99%
16. Grand Falls—Vallée-des-Rivières—Saint-Quentin LIB likely >99%
17. Champdoré—Irishtown LIB likely 96%
18. Moncton Centre LIB likely 92%
19. Bathurst LIB leaning 84%
20. Moncton Northwest Toss up LIB/PC 65%
21. Kent North Toss up LIB/GRN 61%
22. Fredericton South—Silverwood Toss up LIB/PC 61%
23. Miramichi East Toss up LIB/PC 47%
24. Carleton—Victoria Toss up LIB/PC 45%
25. Saint John Harbour Toss up LIB/PC 45%
26. Moncton South Toss up LIB/PC 42%
27. Saint John Portland—Simonds Toss up LIB/PC 34%
28. Saint John East PC leaning 11%
29. Fredericton North PC leaning 3%
30. Saint John West—Lancaster PC likely 2%
31. Fredericton—Lincoln Toss up PC/GRN 2%
32. Miramichi West PC likely 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Shippagan—Les-Îles LIB safe
2. Caraquet LIB safe
3. Edmundston—Vallée-des-Rivières LIB safe
4. Hautes-Terre-Nepisiguit LIB safe
5. Dieppe—Memramcook LIB safe
6. Tracadie LIB safe
7. Restigouche East LIB safe
8. Restigouche West LIB safe
9. Beausoleil—Grand-Bouctouche—Kent LIB safe
10. Miramichi Bay—Neguac LIB safe
11. Madawaska-Les-Lacs—Edmundston LIB safe
12. Belle-Baie-Belledune LIB safe
13. Shediac—Cap-Acadie LIB safe
14. Moncton East LIB safe
15. Shediac Bay—Dieppe LIB safe
16. Grand Falls—Vallée-des-Rivières—Saint-Quentin LIB likely
17. Champdoré—Irishtown LIB likely
18. Moncton Centre LIB likely
19. Bathurst LIB leaning
20. Moncton Northwest Toss up LIB/PC
21. Kent North Toss up LIB/GRN
22. Fredericton South—Silverwood Toss up LIB/PC
23. Miramichi East Toss up LIB/PC
24. Carleton—Victoria Toss up LIB/PC
25. Saint John Harbour Toss up LIB/PC
26. Moncton South Toss up LIB/PC
27. Saint John Portland—Simonds Toss up LIB/PC
28. Saint John East PC leaning
29. Fredericton North PC leaning
30. Saint John West—Lancaster PC likely
31. Fredericton—Lincoln Toss up PC/GRN
32. Miramichi West PC likely