New Brunswick Liberal Association
Last update: September 2, 2023
Leader | Susan Holt |
Popular vote in 2020 | 34.4% |
Current vote projection | 37.7% ± 4.8% |
Current number of MP's | 16 |
Current seat projection | 20 ± 4 |
Vote projection | September 2, 2023
Seat projection | September 2, 2023
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Brunswick Liberal Association
Rank | Electoral districts | 2020 winner (transposed onto new map) |
Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Shippagan—Les-Îles | LIB safe | >99% | |
2. | Edmundston—Vallée-des-Rivières | LIB safe | >99% | |
3. | Caraquet | LIB safe | >99% | |
4. | Tracadie | LIB safe | >99% | |
5. | Hautes-Terre-Nepisiguit | LIB safe | >99% | |
6. | Madawaska-Les-Lacs—Edmundston | LIB safe | >99% | |
7. | Restigouche East | LIB safe | >99% | |
8. | Restigouche West | LIB safe | >99% | |
9. | Shediac Bay—Dieppe | LIB safe | >99% | |
10. | Dieppe—Memramcook | LIB safe | >99% | |
11. | Belle-Baie-Belledune | LIB safe | >99% | |
12. | Grand Falls—Saint-Quentin | LIB safe | >99% | |
13. | Beausoleil—Grand-Bouctouche—Kent | LIB safe | >99% | |
14. | Miramichi Bay—Neguac | LIB safe | >99% | |
15. | Shediac—Cap-Acadie | LIB safe | >99% | |
16. | Bathurst | LIB likely | >99% | |
17. | Moncton East | LIB likely | 96% | |
18. | Champdoré—Irishtown | LIB leaning | 87% | |
19. | Carleton—Victoria | Toss up LIB/PC | 58% | |
20. | Moncton Centre | Toss up LIB/PC | 44% | |
21. | Miramichi East | Toss up LIB/PC | 35% | |
22. | Kent North | Toss up LIB/GRN | 33% | |
23. | Moncton Northwest | PC leaning | 14% | |
24. | Moncton South | PC likely | 6% | |
25. | Saint John Harbour | PC likely | 2% | |
26. | Saint John Portland—Simonds | PC likely | 1% | |
27. | Fredericton—Lincoln | Toss up PC/GRN | 1% |
Rank | Electoral districts | Projection |
---|---|---|
1. | Shippagan—Les-Îles | LIB safe |
2. | Edmundston—Vallée-des-Rivières | LIB safe |
3. | Caraquet | LIB safe |
4. | Tracadie | LIB safe |
5. | Hautes-Terre-Nepisiguit | LIB safe |
6. | Madawaska-Les-Lacs—Edmundston | LIB safe |
7. | Restigouche East | LIB safe |
8. | Restigouche West | LIB safe |
9. | Shediac Bay—Dieppe | LIB safe |
10. | Dieppe—Memramcook | LIB safe |
11. | Belle-Baie-Belledune | LIB safe |
12. | Grand Falls—Saint-Quentin | LIB safe |
13. | Beausoleil—Grand-Bouctouche—Kent | LIB safe |
14. | Miramichi Bay—Neguac | LIB safe |
15. | Shediac—Cap-Acadie | LIB safe |
16. | Bathurst | LIB likely |
17. | Moncton East | LIB likely |
18. | Champdoré—Irishtown | LIB leaning |
19. | Carleton—Victoria | Toss up LIB/PC |
20. | Moncton Centre | Toss up LIB/PC |
21. | Miramichi East | Toss up LIB/PC |
22. | Kent North | Toss up LIB/GRN |
23. | Moncton Northwest | PC leaning |
24. | Moncton South | PC likely |
25. | Saint John Harbour | PC likely |
26. | Saint John Portland—Simonds | PC likely |
27. | Fredericton—Lincoln | Toss up PC/GRN |