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New brunswick

New Brunswick Liberal Association





Last update: October 22, 2024

LeaderSusan Holt
Popular vote in 202448.2%
Current vote projection48.2% ± 0.0%
Current number of MLA's31
Current seat projection30 ± 0

Vote projection | October 22, 2024

48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Probabilities % LIB

Seat projection | October 22, 2024

30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Probabilities % LIB

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Brunswick Liberal Association



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Caraquet LIB safe >99%
2. Edmundston—Vallée-des-Rivières LIB safe >99%
3. Hautes-Terre-Nepisiguit LIB safe >99%
4. Shippagan—Les-Îles LIB safe >99%
5. Shediac Bay—Dieppe LIB safe >99%
6. Madawaska-Les-Lacs—Edmundston LIB safe >99%
7. Dieppe—Memramcook LIB safe >99%
8. Beausoleil—Grand-Bouctouche—Kent LIB safe >99%
9. Restigouche West LIB safe >99%
10. Belle-Baie-Belledune LIB safe >99%
11. Grand Falls—Vallée-des-Rivières—Saint-Quentin LIB safe >99%
12. Moncton East LIB safe >99%
13. Saint John Harbour LIB safe >99%
14. Bathurst LIB safe >99%
15. Moncton Centre LIB safe >99%
16. Shediac—Cap-Acadie LIB safe >99%
17. Restigouche East LIB safe >99%
18. Champdoré—Irishtown LIB safe >99%
19. Fredericton South—Silverwood LIB safe >99%
20. Fredericton North LIB safe >99%
21. Moncton South LIB safe >99%
22. Saint John Portland—Simonds LIB safe >99%
23. Tracadie LIB safe >99%
24. Miramichi Bay—Neguac LIB safe >99%
25. Saint John West—Lancaster LIB likely 99%
26. Rothesay LIB likely 98%
27. Kent North LIB likely 98%
28. Hampton—Fundy—St. Martin’s LIB leaning 77%
29. Moncton Northwest LIB leaning 75%
30. Quispamsis LIB leaning 71%
31. Hanwell—New Maryland Toss up LIB/PC 56%
32. Saint John East Toss up LIB/PC 45%
33. Riverview PC leaning 11%
34. Sussex—Three Rivers PC likely 6%
35. Miramichi East PC likely 1%