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New brunswick

New Brunswick Liberal Association





Last update: September 2, 2023

LeaderSusan Holt
Popular vote in 202034.4%
Current vote projection37.7% ± 4.8%
Current number of MP's16
Current seat projection20 ± 4

Vote projection | September 2, 2023

27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 32.8% ▼ 2020 34.4% 37.7% ± 4.8% ▼ Max. 42.5% ▼ Probabilities % LIB

Seat projection | September 2, 2023

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 16 ▼ 2020 17 seats 19 ▼ Max. 24 ▼ Majority 25 seats Probabilities % LIB

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Brunswick Liberal Association



Rank Electoral districts 2020 winner
(transposed onto new map)		 Last projection Odds of winning
1. Shippagan—Les-Îles LIB safe >99%
2. Edmundston—Vallée-des-Rivières LIB safe >99%
3. Caraquet LIB safe >99%
4. Tracadie LIB safe >99%
5. Hautes-Terre-Nepisiguit LIB safe >99%
6. Madawaska-Les-Lacs—Edmundston LIB safe >99%
7. Restigouche East LIB safe >99%
8. Restigouche West LIB safe >99%
9. Shediac Bay—Dieppe LIB safe >99%
10. Dieppe—Memramcook LIB safe >99%
11. Belle-Baie-Belledune LIB safe >99%
12. Grand Falls—Saint-Quentin LIB safe >99%
13. Beausoleil—Grand-Bouctouche—Kent LIB safe >99%
14. Miramichi Bay—Neguac LIB safe >99%
15. Shediac—Cap-Acadie LIB safe >99%
16. Bathurst LIB likely >99%
17. Moncton East LIB likely 96%
18. Champdoré—Irishtown LIB leaning 87%
19. Carleton—Victoria Toss up LIB/PC 58%
20. Moncton Centre Toss up LIB/PC 44%
21. Miramichi East Toss up LIB/PC 35%
22. Kent North Toss up LIB/GRN 33%
23. Moncton Northwest PC leaning 14%
24. Moncton South PC likely 6%
25. Saint John Harbour PC likely 2%
26. Saint John Portland—Simonds PC likely 1%
27. Fredericton—Lincoln Toss up PC/GRN 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Shippagan—Les-Îles LIB safe
2. Edmundston—Vallée-des-Rivières LIB safe
3. Caraquet LIB safe
4. Tracadie LIB safe
5. Hautes-Terre-Nepisiguit LIB safe
6. Madawaska-Les-Lacs—Edmundston LIB safe
7. Restigouche East LIB safe
8. Restigouche West LIB safe
9. Shediac Bay—Dieppe LIB safe
10. Dieppe—Memramcook LIB safe
11. Belle-Baie-Belledune LIB safe
12. Grand Falls—Saint-Quentin LIB safe
13. Beausoleil—Grand-Bouctouche—Kent LIB safe
14. Miramichi Bay—Neguac LIB safe
15. Shediac—Cap-Acadie LIB safe
16. Bathurst LIB likely
17. Moncton East LIB likely
18. Champdoré—Irishtown LIB leaning
19. Carleton—Victoria Toss up LIB/PC
20. Moncton Centre Toss up LIB/PC
21. Miramichi East Toss up LIB/PC
22. Kent North Toss up LIB/GRN
23. Moncton Northwest PC leaning
24. Moncton South PC likely
25. Saint John Harbour PC likely
26. Saint John Portland—Simonds PC likely
27. Fredericton—Lincoln Toss up PC/GRN