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New brunswick

New Brunswick Liberal Association





Last update: December 31, 2022

LeaderSusan Holt
Popular vote in 202034.4%
Current vote projection38.5% ± 4.7%
Current number of MP's16
Current seat projection21 ± 6

Vote projection | December 31, 2022

28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 33.8% 2020 34.4% 38.5% ± 4.7% Max. 43.2% Probabilities % LIB

Seat projection | December 31, 2022

8 13 18 23 28 33 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 15 2020 17 seats 20 Max. 27 Probabilities % LIB

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Brunswick Liberal Association



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou LIB safe >99%
2. Edmundston-Madawaska Centre LIB safe >99%
3. Tracadie-Sheila LIB safe >99%
4. Caraquet LIB safe >99%
5. Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston LIB safe >99%
6. Victoria-La Vallée LIB safe >99%
7. Campbellton-Dalhousie LIB safe >99%
8. Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore LIB safe >99%
9. Restigouche West LIB safe >99%
10. Bathurst West-Beresford LIB safe >99%
11. Kent South LIB safe >99%
12. Dieppe LIB safe >99%
13. Shediac Bay-Dieppe LIB safe >99%
14. Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pelé LIB safe >99%
15. Restigouche-Chaleur LIB safe >99%
16. Moncton Centre LIB likely 98%
17. Carleton-Victoria LIB leaning 87%
18. Moncton East LIB leaning 82%
19. Moncton South LIB leaning 76%
20. Moncton Northwest Toss up LIB/PC 50%
21. Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton Toss up LIB/PC 47%
22. Miramichi Toss up LIB/PC 43%
23. Miramichi Bay-Neguac PC leaning 29%
24. Memramcook-Tantramar GRN leaning 29%
25. Portland-Simonds PC leaning 26%
26. Saint John Harbour Toss up LIB/PC/GRN 15%
27. Kent North GRN leaning 10%
28. Saint John East PC leaning 10%
29. Moncton Southwest PC likely 3%
30. Saint John Lancaster PC likely 3%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou LIB safe
2. Edmundston-Madawaska Centre LIB safe
3. Tracadie-Sheila LIB safe
4. Caraquet LIB safe
5. Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston LIB safe
6. Victoria-La Vallée LIB safe
7. Campbellton-Dalhousie LIB safe
8. Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore LIB safe
9. Restigouche West LIB safe
10. Bathurst West-Beresford LIB safe
11. Kent South LIB safe
12. Dieppe LIB safe
13. Shediac Bay-Dieppe LIB safe
14. Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pelé LIB safe
15. Restigouche-Chaleur LIB safe
16. Moncton Centre LIB likely
17. Carleton-Victoria LIB leaning
18. Moncton East LIB leaning
19. Moncton South LIB leaning
20. Moncton Northwest Toss up LIB/PC
21. Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton Toss up LIB/PC
22. Miramichi Toss up LIB/PC
23. Miramichi Bay-Neguac PC leaning
24. Memramcook-Tantramar GRN leaning
25. Portland-Simonds PC leaning
26. Saint John Harbour Toss up LIB/PC/GRN
27. Kent North GRN leaning
28. Saint John East PC leaning
29. Moncton Southwest PC likely
30. Saint John Lancaster PC likely