logo
New brunswick

Recent electoral history | Saint John West—Lancaster


2020 2024 Projection LIB 46% ± 7% 21.6% 46.5% PC 37% ± 7% 54.8% 36.8% GRN 11% ± 4% 13.9% 11.4% NDP 4% ± 2% 3.4% 4.4% IND 1% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


New Brunswick flag

338Canada Saint John West—Lancaster projection

Latest update: December 20, 2025

Saint John West—Lancaster 39% 54% 46% ± 7% LIB 30% 44% 37% ± 7% PC 7% 15% 11% ± 4% GRN 2% 7% 4% ± 2% NDP LIB 2024 46.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saint John West—Lancaster 92% LIB 8% PC <1% GRN Odds of winning | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Saint John West—Lancaster

LIB 46% ± 7% PC 37% ± 7% NDP 4% ± 2% GRN 11% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Saint John West—Lancaster 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 LIB PC NDP GRN December 20, 2025 2025-10-25 LIB 46% PC 37% GRN 11% NDP 4% 2025-10-25 2025-12-20 LIB 46% PC 37% GRN 11% NDP 4% 2025-12-20

Odds of winning | Saint John West—Lancaster

LIB 92% PC 8% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 LIB PC NDP December 20, 2025 2025-10-25 LIB 92% PC 8% NDP <1% 2025-10-25 2025-12-20 LIB 92% PC 8% NDP <1% 2025-12-20