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New brunswick

Hampton—Fundy—St. Martin’s


Latest projection: August 27, 2024
PC safe
Hampton—Fundy—St. Martin’s 56% ± 8%▼ PC 21% ± 6%▲ LIB 14% ± 5% GRN 6% ± 3%▲ NDP 4% ± 2%▼ PANB PC 2020 60.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | August 27, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hampton—Fundy—St. Martin’s >99% PC <1% LIB <1% GRN Odds of winning | August 27, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Hampton—Fundy—St. Martin’s

LIB 21% ± 6% PC 56% ± 8% NDP 6% ± 3% GRN 14% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Hampton—Fundy—St. Martin’s 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 Election 2024 LIB PC NDP GRN August 27, 2024 2023-05-01 PC 58% LIB 16% GRN 15% NDP 4% 2023-05-01 2023-06-06 PC 57% LIB 16% GRN 15% NDP 4% 2023-06-06 2023-09-02 PC 59% LIB 16% GRN 14% NDP 4% 2023-09-02 2024-03-09 PC 57% LIB 19% GRN 14% NDP 5% 2024-03-09 2024-08-27 PC 56% LIB 21% GRN 14% NDP 6% 2024-08-27

Odds of winning | Hampton—Fundy—St. Martin’s

LIB <1% PC >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 Election 2024 LIB PC August 27, 2024 2023-05-01 PC >99% LIB <1% 2023-05-01 2023-06-06 PC >99% LIB <1% 2023-06-06 2023-09-02 PC >99% LIB <1% 2023-09-02 2024-03-09 PC >99% LIB <1% 2024-03-09 2024-08-27 PC >99% LIB <1% 2024-08-27

Recent electoral history | Hampton—Fundy—St. Martin’s



2020 Proj. PC 60.4% 56% ± 8% LIB 13.5% 21% ± 6% PANB 12.0% 4% ± 2% GRN 11.2% 14% ± 5% NDP 3.0% 6% ± 3%
Note: Numbers on table above are the 2020 results transposed onto new electoral map.