logo
New brunswick

Moncton South


MLA: (New boundaries)

Latest projection: March 9, 2024
PC leaning
Moncton South 39% ± 8%▼ 33% ± 7%▲ 20% ± 6%▼ 5% ± 3%▲ PC 2020 45.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 9, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Moncton South 77%▼ 23%▲ <1% Odds of winning | March 9, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Moncton South

LIB 33% ± 7% PC 39% ± 8% NDP 5% ± 3% GRN 20% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Moncton South 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 Election 2024 LIB PC NDP GRN

Odds of winning | Moncton South

LIB 23% PC 77% GRN <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 Election 2024 LIB PC GRN

Recent electoral history | Moncton South



2020 Proj. PC 45.0% 39% ± 8% LIB 26.8% 33% ± 7% GRN 18.4% 20% ± 6% PANB 6.3% 2% ± 2% NDP 3.4% 5% ± 3%
Note: Numbers on table above are the 2020 results transposed onto new electoral map.