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New brunswick

Moncton South


MLA: Claire Johnson (LIB)
Latest projection: October 22, 2024
LIB safe
Moncton South 53% ± 0%▲ LIB 33% ± 0%▼ PC 13% ± 0%▲ GRN LIB 2024 53.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 22, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Moncton South >99%▲ LIB <1%▼ PC <1% GRN Odds of winning | October 22, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Moncton South

LIB 53% ± 0% PC 33% ± 0% GRN 13% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Moncton South 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-09-15 2024-10-01 2024-10-15 Election 2024 Campaign begins LIB PC GRN October 22, 2024 2024-09-23 PC 39% LIB 37% GRN 17% 2024-09-23 2024-10-02 PC 41% LIB 40% GRN 19% 2024-10-02 2024-10-04 PC 42% LIB 40% GRN 18% 2024-10-04 2024-10-17 LIB 42% PC 42% GRN 16% 2024-10-17 2024-10-20 LIB 46% PC 42% GRN 12% 2024-10-20 2024-10-22 LIB 53% PC 33% GRN 13% 2024-10-22

Odds of winning | Moncton South

LIB >99% PC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-09-15 2024-10-01 2024-10-15 Election 2024 Campaign begins LIB PC NDP October 22, 2024 2024-09-23 PC 58% LIB 42% NDP <1% 2024-09-23 2024-10-02 PC 58% LIB 42% NDP <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-04 PC 61% LIB 39% NDP <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-17 LIB 51% PC 49% NDP <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-20 LIB 69% PC 31% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-22 LIB >99% PC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-22

Recent electoral history | Moncton South



2020 2024 Proj. LIB 53% ± 0% 26.8% 53.2% PC 33% ± 0% 45.0% 33.3% GRN 13% ± 0% 18.4% 13.5%
Note: Numbers from 2020 are results transposed onto new electoral map.