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New brunswick

Saint John Portland—Simonds


Latest projection: March 9, 2024
PC likely
Saint John Portland—Simonds 48% ± 8%▼ PC 36% ± 8%▲ LIB 10% ± 4% GRN 5% ± 3%▲ NDP PC 2020 54.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 9, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saint John Portland—Simonds 93%▼ PC 7%▲ LIB <1% GRN Odds of winning | March 9, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Saint John Portland—Simonds

LIB 36% ± 8% PC 48% ± 8% NDP 5% ± 3% GRN 10% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Saint John Portland—Simonds 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 Election 2024 LIB PC NDP GRN

Odds of winning | Saint John Portland—Simonds

LIB 7% PC 93% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 Election 2024 LIB PC

Recent electoral history | Saint John Portland—Simonds



2020 Proj. PC 54.8% 48% ± 8% LIB 28.6% 36% ± 8% GRN 8.6% 10% ± 4% PANB 5.2% 2% ± 1% NDP 2.7% 5% ± 3%
Note: Numbers on table above are the 2020 results transposed onto new electoral map.