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New brunswick

Hanwell—New Maryland


Latest projection: August 27, 2024
PC safe
Hanwell—New Maryland 51% ± 7% PC 22% ± 6%▲ LIB 21% ± 6% GRN 3% ± 2% NDP 3% ± 2%▼ PANB PC 2020 55.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | August 27, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hanwell—New Maryland >99% PC <1% LIB <1% GRN Odds of winning | August 27, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Hanwell—New Maryland

LIB 22% ± 6% PC 51% ± 7% GRN 21% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Hanwell—New Maryland 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 Election 2024 LIB PC GRN August 27, 2024 2023-05-01 PC 51% GRN 22% LIB 18% 2023-05-01 2023-06-06 PC 51% GRN 23% LIB 17% 2023-06-06 2023-09-02 PC 53% GRN 21% LIB 18% 2023-09-02 2024-03-09 PC 51% GRN 21% LIB 21% 2024-03-09 2024-08-27 PC 51% LIB 22% GRN 21% 2024-08-27

Odds of winning | Hanwell—New Maryland

LIB <1% PC >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 Election 2024 LIB PC August 27, 2024 2023-05-01 PC >99% LIB <1% 2023-05-01 2023-06-06 PC >99% LIB <1% 2023-06-06 2023-09-02 PC >99% LIB <1% 2023-09-02 2024-03-09 PC >99% LIB <1% 2024-03-09 2024-08-27 PC >99% LIB <1% 2024-08-27

Recent electoral history | Hanwell—New Maryland



2020 Proj. PC 55.1% 51% ± 7% GRN 17.6% 21% ± 6% LIB 15.3% 22% ± 6% PANB 10.5% 3% ± 2% NDP 1.5% 3% ± 2%
Note: Numbers on table above are the 2020 results transposed onto new electoral map.