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New brunswick

Progressive Conservative Party





Last update: August 27, 2024

LeaderBlaine Higgs
Popular vote in 202039.3%
Current vote projection35.3% ± 4.9%
Current number of MP's30
Current seat projection23 ± 5

Vote projection | August 27, 2024

24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 30.4% 35.3% ± 4.9% 2020 39.3% Max. 40.2% Probabilities % PC

Seat projection | August 27, 2024

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 18 23 Majority 25 seats 2020 27 seats Max. 29 Probabilities % PC

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts 2020 winner
(transposed onto new map)
Last projection Odds of winning
1. Fundy—The Isles—Saint John Lorneville PC safe >99%
2. Albert—Riverview PC safe >99%
3. Quispamsis PC safe >99%
4. Carleton—York PC safe >99%
5. Sussex—Three Rivers PC safe >99%
6. Kings Centre PC safe >99%
7. Hampton—Fundy—St. Martin’s PC safe >99%
8. Arcadia—Butternut Valley—Maple Hills PC safe >99%
9. Riverview PC safe >99%
10. Oromocto—Sunbury PC safe >99%
11. Saint Croix PC safe >99%
12. Hanwell—New Maryland PC safe >99%
13. Rothesay PC safe >99%
14. Woodstock—Hartland PC safe >99%
15. Fredericton—Grand Lake PC likely >99%
16. Saint John West—Lancaster PC likely >99%
17. Saint John East PC likely 97%
18. Fredericton—York PC likely 96%
19. Miramichi West PC likely 92%
20. Saint John Portland—Simonds PC leaning 87%
21. Saint John Harbour PC leaning 78%
22. Fredericton North Toss up PC/GRN 68%
23. Moncton South Toss up LIB/PC 64%
24. Moncton Northwest Toss up LIB/PC 42%
25. Fredericton South—Silverwood Toss up PC/GRN 31%
26. Fredericton—Lincoln Toss up LIB/PC/GRN 31%
27. Carleton—Victoria LIB leaning 20%
28. Miramichi East LIB leaning 17%
29. Moncton Centre LIB leaning 12%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Fundy—The Isles—Saint John Lorneville PC safe
2. Albert—Riverview PC safe
3. Quispamsis PC safe
4. Carleton—York PC safe
5. Sussex—Three Rivers PC safe
6. Kings Centre PC safe
7. Hampton—Fundy—St. Martin’s PC safe
8. Arcadia—Butternut Valley—Maple Hills PC safe
9. Riverview PC safe
10. Oromocto—Sunbury PC safe
11. Saint Croix PC safe
12. Hanwell—New Maryland PC safe
13. Rothesay PC safe
14. Woodstock—Hartland PC safe
15. Fredericton—Grand Lake PC likely
16. Saint John West—Lancaster PC likely
17. Saint John East PC likely
18. Fredericton—York PC likely
19. Miramichi West PC likely
20. Saint John Portland—Simonds PC leaning
21. Saint John Harbour PC leaning
22. Fredericton North Toss up PC/GRN
23. Moncton South Toss up LIB/PC
24. Moncton Northwest Toss up LIB/PC
25. Fredericton South—Silverwood Toss up PC/GRN
26. Fredericton—Lincoln Toss up LIB/PC/GRN
27. Carleton—Victoria LIB leaning
28. Miramichi East LIB leaning
29. Moncton Centre LIB leaning