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New brunswick

Progressive Conservative Party





Last update: December 31, 2022

LeaderBlaine Higgs
Popular vote in 202039.3%
Current vote projection32.8% ± 4.9%
Current number of MP's30
Current seat projection24 ± 6

Vote projection | December 31, 2022

22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 27.9% ▼ 32.8% ± 4.9% ▼ Max. 37.7% ▼ 2020 39.3% Probabilities % PC

Seat projection | December 31, 2022

10 15 20 25 30 35 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 18 ▼ 25 ▼ 2020 27 seats Max. 30 ▼ Probabilities % PC

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Albert PC safe >99%
2. Rothesay PC safe >99%
3. Carleton-York PC safe >99%
4. Gagetown-Petitcodiac PC safe >99%
5. Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West PC safe >99%
6. Fredericton-Grand Lake PC safe >99%
7. New Maryland-Sunbury PC safe >99%
8. Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins PC safe >99%
9. Kings Centre PC safe >99%
10. Riverview PC safe >99%
11. Hampton PC safe >99%
12. Carleton PC safe >99%
13. Saint Croix PC safe >99%
14. Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin PC safe >99%
15. Quispamsis PC safe >99%
16. Fredericton West-Hanwell PC likely >99%
17. Saint John Lancaster PC likely 97%
18. Moncton Southwest PC likely 97%
19. Saint John East PC leaning 90%
20. Fredericton-York PC leaning 82%
21. Portland-Simonds PC leaning 74%
22. Miramichi Bay-Neguac PC leaning 71%
23. Saint John Harbour Toss up LIB/PC/GRN 63%
24. Miramichi Toss up LIB/PC 57%
25. Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton Toss up LIB/PC 53%
26. Moncton Northwest Toss up LIB/PC 50%
27. Moncton South LIB leaning 23%
28. Fredericton North GRN leaning 20%
29. Moncton East LIB leaning 18%
30. Carleton-Victoria LIB leaning 13%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Albert PC safe
2. Rothesay PC safe
3. Carleton-York PC safe
4. Gagetown-Petitcodiac PC safe
5. Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West PC safe
6. Fredericton-Grand Lake PC safe
7. New Maryland-Sunbury PC safe
8. Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins PC safe
9. Kings Centre PC safe
10. Riverview PC safe
11. Hampton PC safe
12. Carleton PC safe
13. Saint Croix PC safe
14. Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin PC safe
15. Quispamsis PC safe
16. Fredericton West-Hanwell PC likely
17. Saint John Lancaster PC likely
18. Moncton Southwest PC likely
19. Saint John East PC leaning
20. Fredericton-York PC leaning
21. Portland-Simonds PC leaning
22. Miramichi Bay-Neguac PC leaning
23. Saint John Harbour Toss up LIB/PC/GRN
24. Miramichi Toss up LIB/PC
25. Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton Toss up LIB/PC
26. Moncton Northwest Toss up LIB/PC
27. Moncton South LIB leaning
28. Fredericton North GRN leaning
29. Moncton East LIB leaning
30. Carleton-Victoria LIB leaning