logo
New brunswick

Progressive Conservative Party





Last update: September 2, 2023

LeaderBlaine Higgs
Popular vote in 202039.3%
Current vote projection37.5% ± 5.2%
Current number of MP's30
Current seat projection26 ± 5

Vote projection | September 2, 2023

26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 32.3% 37.5% ± 5.2% 2020 39.3% Max. 42.8% Probabilities % PC

Seat projection | September 2, 2023

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 21 Majority 25 seats 26 2020 27 seats Max. 31 Probabilities % PC

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts 2020 winner
(transposed onto new map)
Last projection Odds of winning
1. Fundy—The Isles—Saint John Lorneville PC safe >99%
2. Quispamsis PC safe >99%
3. Albert—Riverview PC safe >99%
4. Rothesay PC safe >99%
5. Kings Centre PC safe >99%
6. Hampton—Fundy—St. Martin’s PC safe >99%
7. Carleton—York PC safe >99%
8. Sussex—Three Rivers PC safe >99%
9. Riverview PC safe >99%
10. Arcadia—Butternut Valley—Maple Hills PC safe >99%
11. Oromocto—Sunbury PC safe >99%
12. Hanwell—New Maryland PC safe >99%
13. Woodstock—Hartland PC safe >99%
14. Saint Croix PC safe >99%
15. Saint John West—Lancaster PC safe >99%
16. Saint John East PC safe >99%
17. Miramichi West PC likely >99%
18. Saint John Portland—Simonds PC likely 99%
19. Saint John Harbour PC likely 97%
20. Fredericton—York PC likely 96%
21. Moncton South PC likely 94%
22. Fredericton—Grand Lake PC likely 93%
23. Moncton Northwest PC leaning 86%
24. Fredericton North PC leaning 74%
25. Miramichi East Toss up LIB/PC 62%
26. Moncton Centre Toss up LIB/PC 54%
27. Fredericton—Lincoln Toss up PC/GRN 46%
28. Carleton—Victoria Toss up LIB/PC 42%
29. Fredericton South—Silverwood Toss up PC/GRN 35%
30. Champdoré—Irishtown LIB leaning 13%
31. Moncton East LIB likely 4%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Fundy—The Isles—Saint John Lorneville PC safe
2. Quispamsis PC safe
3. Albert—Riverview PC safe
4. Rothesay PC safe
5. Kings Centre PC safe
6. Hampton—Fundy—St. Martin’s PC safe
7. Carleton—York PC safe
8. Sussex—Three Rivers PC safe
9. Riverview PC safe
10. Arcadia—Butternut Valley—Maple Hills PC safe
11. Oromocto—Sunbury PC safe
12. Hanwell—New Maryland PC safe
13. Woodstock—Hartland PC safe
14. Saint Croix PC safe
15. Saint John West—Lancaster PC safe
16. Saint John East PC safe
17. Miramichi West PC likely
18. Saint John Portland—Simonds PC likely
19. Saint John Harbour PC likely
20. Fredericton—York PC likely
21. Moncton South PC likely
22. Fredericton—Grand Lake PC likely
23. Moncton Northwest PC leaning
24. Fredericton North PC leaning
25. Miramichi East Toss up LIB/PC
26. Moncton Centre Toss up LIB/PC
27. Fredericton—Lincoln Toss up PC/GRN
28. Carleton—Victoria Toss up LIB/PC
29. Fredericton South—Silverwood Toss up PC/GRN
30. Champdoré—Irishtown LIB leaning
31. Moncton East LIB likely