Progressive Conservative Party
Last update: August 27, 2024
Leader | Blaine Higgs |
Popular vote in 2020 | 39.3% |
Current vote projection | 35.3% ± 4.9% |
Current number of MP's | 30 |
Current seat projection | 23 ± 5 |
Vote projection | August 27, 2024
Seat projection | August 27, 2024
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party
Rank | Electoral districts | 2020 winner (transposed onto new map) |
Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Fundy—The Isles—Saint John Lorneville | PC safe | >99% | |
2. | Albert—Riverview | PC safe | >99% | |
3. | Quispamsis | PC safe | >99% | |
4. | Carleton—York | PC safe | >99% | |
5. | Sussex—Three Rivers | PC safe | >99% | |
6. | Kings Centre | PC safe | >99% | |
7. | Hampton—Fundy—St. Martin’s | PC safe | >99% | |
8. | Arcadia—Butternut Valley—Maple Hills | PC safe | >99% | |
9. | Riverview | PC safe | >99% | |
10. | Oromocto—Sunbury | PC safe | >99% | |
11. | Saint Croix | PC safe | >99% | |
12. | Hanwell—New Maryland | PC safe | >99% | |
13. | Rothesay | PC safe | >99% | |
14. | Woodstock—Hartland | PC safe | >99% | |
15. | Fredericton—Grand Lake | PC likely | >99% | |
16. | Saint John West—Lancaster | PC likely | >99% | |
17. | Saint John East | PC likely | 97% | |
18. | Fredericton—York | PC likely | 96% | |
19. | Miramichi West | PC likely | 92% | |
20. | Saint John Portland—Simonds | PC leaning | 87% | |
21. | Saint John Harbour | PC leaning | 78% | |
22. | Fredericton North | Toss up PC/GRN | 68% | |
23. | Moncton South | Toss up LIB/PC | 64% | |
24. | Moncton Northwest | Toss up LIB/PC | 42% | |
25. | Fredericton South—Silverwood | Toss up PC/GRN | 31% | |
26. | Fredericton—Lincoln | Toss up LIB/PC/GRN | 31% | |
27. | Carleton—Victoria | LIB leaning | 20% | |
28. | Miramichi East | LIB leaning | 17% | |
29. | Moncton Centre | LIB leaning | 12% |
Rank | Electoral districts | Projection |
---|---|---|
1. | Fundy—The Isles—Saint John Lorneville | PC safe |
2. | Albert—Riverview | PC safe |
3. | Quispamsis | PC safe |
4. | Carleton—York | PC safe |
5. | Sussex—Three Rivers | PC safe |
6. | Kings Centre | PC safe |
7. | Hampton—Fundy—St. Martin’s | PC safe |
8. | Arcadia—Butternut Valley—Maple Hills | PC safe |
9. | Riverview | PC safe |
10. | Oromocto—Sunbury | PC safe |
11. | Saint Croix | PC safe |
12. | Hanwell—New Maryland | PC safe |
13. | Rothesay | PC safe |
14. | Woodstock—Hartland | PC safe |
15. | Fredericton—Grand Lake | PC likely |
16. | Saint John West—Lancaster | PC likely |
17. | Saint John East | PC likely |
18. | Fredericton—York | PC likely |
19. | Miramichi West | PC likely |
20. | Saint John Portland—Simonds | PC leaning |
21. | Saint John Harbour | PC leaning |
22. | Fredericton North | Toss up PC/GRN |
23. | Moncton South | Toss up LIB/PC |
24. | Moncton Northwest | Toss up LIB/PC |
25. | Fredericton South—Silverwood | Toss up PC/GRN |
26. | Fredericton—Lincoln | Toss up LIB/PC/GRN |
27. | Carleton—Victoria | LIB leaning |
28. | Miramichi East | LIB leaning |
29. | Moncton Centre | LIB leaning |