Progressive Conservative Party

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party

Rank	Electoral districts	2020 winner (transposed onto new map)	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Fundy—The Isles—Saint John Lorneville		PC safe	>99%
2.	Albert—Riverview		PC safe	>99%
3.	Quispamsis		PC safe	>99%
4.	Carleton—York		PC safe	>99%
5.	Sussex—Three Rivers		PC safe	>99%
6.	Kings Centre		PC safe	>99%
7.	Hampton—Fundy—St. Martin’s		PC safe	>99%
8.	Arcadia—Butternut Valley—Maple Hills		PC safe	>99%
9.	Riverview		PC safe	>99%
10.	Oromocto—Sunbury		PC safe	>99%
11.	Saint Croix		PC safe	>99%
12.	Hanwell—New Maryland		PC safe	>99%
13.	Rothesay		PC safe	>99%
14.	Woodstock—Hartland		PC safe	>99%
15.	Fredericton—Grand Lake		PC likely	>99%
16.	Saint John West—Lancaster		PC likely	>99%
17.	Saint John East		PC likely	97%
18.	Fredericton—York		PC likely	96%
19.	Miramichi West		PC likely	92%
20.	Saint John Portland—Simonds		PC leaning	87%
21.	Saint John Harbour		PC leaning	78%
22.	Fredericton North		Toss up PC/GRN	68%
23.	Moncton South		Toss up LIB/PC	64%
24.	Moncton Northwest		Toss up LIB/PC	42%
25.	Fredericton South—Silverwood		Toss up PC/GRN	31%
26.	Fredericton—Lincoln		Toss up LIB/PC/GRN	31%
27.	Carleton—Victoria		LIB leaning	20%
28.	Miramichi East		LIB leaning	17%
29.	Moncton Centre		LIB leaning	12%