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Recent electoral history | Bathurst


2020 2024 Projection LIB 56% ± 8% 51.0% 56.7% PC 35% ± 7% 34.7% 34.3% GRN 5% ± 3% 14.3% 5.5% NDP 4% ± 2% 0.0% 3.6%

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338Canada Bathurst projection

Latest update: December 20, 2025

Bathurst 49% 64% 56% ± 8% LIB 27% 42% 35% ± 7% PC 3% 8% 5% ± 3% GRN 1% 6% 4% ± 2% NDP LIB 2024 56.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Bathurst >99% LIB <1% PC <1% GRN Odds of winning | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Bathurst

LIB 56% ± 8% PC 35% ± 7% NDP 4% ± 2% GRN 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Bathurst 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 LIB PC NDP GRN December 20, 2025 2025-10-25 LIB 57% PC 34% GRN 5% NDP 4% 2025-10-25 2025-12-20 LIB 56% PC 35% GRN 5% NDP 4% 2025-12-20

Odds of winning | Bathurst

LIB >99% PC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 LIB PC NDP December 20, 2025 2025-10-25 LIB >99% PC <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-25 2025-12-20 LIB >99% PC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-20