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New brunswick

Recent electoral history | Moncton Centre


2020 2024 Projection LIB 56% ± 7% 30.1% 56.5% PC 28% ± 6% 38.0% 28.1% GRN 11% ± 4% 22.0% 11.5% NDP 4% ± 2% 3.4% 3.9%

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338Canada Moncton Centre projection

Latest update: December 20, 2025

Moncton Centre 49% 64% 56% ± 7% LIB 22% 35% 28% ± 6% PC 7% 15% 11% ± 4% GRN 2% 6% 4% ± 2% NDP LIB 2024 56.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Moncton Centre >99% LIB <1% PC <1% GRN Odds of winning | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Moncton Centre

LIB 56% ± 7% PC 28% ± 6% NDP 4% ± 2% GRN 11% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Moncton Centre 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 LIB PC NDP GRN December 20, 2025 2025-10-25 LIB 56% PC 28% GRN 12% NDP 4% 2025-10-25 2025-12-20 LIB 56% PC 28% GRN 11% NDP 4% 2025-12-20

Odds of winning | Moncton Centre

LIB >99% PC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 LIB PC NDP December 20, 2025 2025-10-25 LIB >99% NDP <1% PC <1% 2025-10-25 2025-12-20 LIB >99% PC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-20