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Welcome to 338Canada - USA!
The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of P.J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.
P.J. Fournier is a political contributor for Maclean's and L'actualité magazines, and he is a political analyst for CTV Montreal and CJAD 800.
You can subscribe to the 338Canada Facebook page, as well as follow P.J.Fournier on Twitter. Thanks for your visit!
- Popular Vote Projection
- Breakdown by state
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- The Complete States Table
- Projection of winner
- Electoral College Projection
- Complete map
- All state projections
- List of polls
338Canada 2020 U.S. Presidential Election Projection
Latest update: November 3, 2020 [FINAL]
Biden | Trump |
52.0% ± 5.4% | 43.4% ± 5.4% |
- Popular Vote Projection
- Breakdown by state
- Tipping point
- The Complete States Table
- Projection of winner
- Electoral College Projection
- Complete map
- All state projections
- List of polls
Breakdown by state
Latest update: November 3, 2020 [FINAL]
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}
}
Dem safe: 182 | |
Dem likely: 45 | |
Dem leaning: 52 | |
Dem toss up: 71 | |
Rep toss up: 62 | |
Rep leaning: 25 | |
Rep likely: 48 | |
Rep safe: 53 |
Dem safe: 182 |
Dem likely: 45 |
Dem leaning: 52 |
Dem toss up: 71 |
Rep toss up: 62 |
Rep leaning: 25 |
Rep likely: 48 |
Rep safe: 53 |
- Popular Vote Projection
- Breakdown by state
- Tipping point
- The Complete States Table
- Projection of winner
- Electoral College Projection
- Complete map
- All state projections
- List of polls
The Complete States Table
State | Projected margin (rounded) | Odds of winning | Current projection | |
---|---|---|---|---|
District of Columbia | Biden +89 | >99% | <1% | DEM safe |
Hawaii | Biden +38 | >99% | <1% | DEM safe |
Massachusetts | Biden +36 | >99% | <1% | DEM safe |
Vermont | Biden +36 | >99% | <1% | DEM safe |
California | Biden +34 | >99% | <1% | DEM safe |
New York | Biden +31 | >99% | <1% | DEM safe |
Maryland | Biden +29 | >99% | <1% | DEM safe |
Rhode Island | Biden +24 | >99% | <1% | DEM safe |
Delaware | Biden +22 | >99% | <1% | DEM safe |
Connecticut | Biden +22 | >99% | <1% | DEM safe |
Washington | Biden +21 | >99% | <1% | DEM safe |
New Jersey | Biden +21 | >99% | <1% | DEM safe |
Illinois | Biden +21 | >99% | <1% | DEM safe |
Oregon | Biden +17 | 99% | 1% | DEM safe |
New Mexico | Biden +13 | 97% | 3% | DEM likely |
Colorado | Biden +13 | 96% | 4% | DEM likely |
New Hampshire | Biden +13 | 96% | 4% | DEM likely |
Virginia | Biden +12 | 95% | 5% | DEM likely |
Minnesota | Biden +11 | 94% | 6% | DEM likely |
Maine | Biden +11 | 93% | 7% | DEM likely |
Michigan | Biden +8 | 87% | 13% | DEM leaning |
Wisconsin | Biden +7 | 84% | 16% | DEM leaning |
Nevada | Biden +7 | 82% | 18% | DEM leaning |
Pennsylvania | Biden +5 | 74% | 26% | ← Tipping point |
Florida | Biden +2 | 63% | 37% | Toss up |
Arizona | Biden +2 | 61% | 39% | Toss up |
North Carolina | Biden +1 | 56% | 44% | Toss up |
Georgia | Even | 52% | 48% | Toss up |
Ohio | Even | 49% | 51% | Toss up |
Iowa | Trump +1 | 42% | 58% | Toss up |
Texas | Trump +2 | 39% | 61% | Toss up |
Missouri | Trump +5 | 24% | 76% | REP leaning |
Montana | Trump +7 | 17% | 83% | REP leaning |
South Carolina | Trump +9 | 11% | 89% | REP leaning |
Alaska | Trump +9 | 11% | 89% | REP leaning |
Indiana | Trump +11 | 6% | 94% | REP likely |
Mississippi | Trump +13 | 4% | 96% | REP likely |
Kansas | Trump +12 | 4% | 96% | REP likely |
South Dakota | Trump +14 | 2% | 98% | REP likely |
Utah | Trump +13 | 2% | 98% | REP likely |
Tennessee | Trump +15 | 2% | 98% | REP likely |
Nebraska | Trump +15 | 2% | 98% | REP likely |
Kentucky | Trump +18 | <1% | >99% | REP safe |
Arkansas | Trump +20 | <1% | >99% | REP safe |
Alabama | Trump +20 | <1% | >99% | REP safe |
North Dakota | Trump +20 | <1% | >99% | REP safe |
West Virginia | Trump +21 | <1% | >99% | REP safe |
Louisiana | Trump +22 | <1% | >99% | REP safe |
Oklahoma | Trump +25 | <1% | >99% | REP safe |
Idaho | Trump +25 | <1% | >99% | REP safe |
Wyoming | Trump +33 | <1% | >99% | REP safe |
- Popular Vote Projection
- Breakdown by state
- Tipping point
- The Complete States Table
- Projection of winner
- Electoral College Projection
- Complete map
- All state projections
- List of polls
The Tipping Point
State | Projected margin (rounded) | Odds of winning | Current projection | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Michigan | Biden +8 | 87% | 13% | DEM leaning |
Wisconsin | Biden +7 | 84% | 16% | DEM leaning |
Nevada | Biden +7 | 82% | 18% | DEM leaning |
Pennsylvania | Biden +5 | 74% | 26% | ← Tipping point |
Florida | Biden +2 | 63% | 37% | Toss up |
Arizona | Biden +2 | 61% | 39% | Toss up |
North Carolina | Biden +1 | 56% | 44% | Toss up |
Georgia | Even | 52% | 48% | Toss up |
Ohio | Even | 49% | 51% | Toss up |
Iowa | Trump +1 | 42% | 58% | Toss up |
Texas | Trump +2 | 39% | 61% | Toss up |
Missouri | Trump +5 | 24% | 76% | REP leaning |
Montana | Trump +7 | 17% | 83% | REP leaning |
South Carolina | Trump +9 | 11% | 89% | REP leaning |
Alaska | Trump +9 | 11% | 89% | REP leaning |
- Popular Vote Projection
- Breakdown by state
- Tipping point
- The Complete States Table
- Projection of winner
- Electoral College Projection
- Complete map
- All state projections
- List of polls
Odds of winning the Electoral College
Latest update: November 3, 2020 [FINAL]
Biden | Trump |
80.5% | 18.9% |
- Popular Vote Projection
- Breakdown by state
- Tipping point
- The Complete States Table
- Projection of winner
- Electoral College Projection
- Complete map
- All state projections
- List of polls
Electoral College Projection
Latest update: November 3, 2020 [FINAL]
Biden | Trump |
340 ± 135 | 198 ± 135 |
- Popular Vote Projection
- Breakdown by state
- Tipping point
- The Complete States Table
- Projection of winner
- Electoral College Projection
- Complete map
- All state projections
- List of polls