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New Mexico, 5 Electoral Votes


(Winner-take-all)
Latest update: October 5, 2024
Likely Harris
New Mexico 53% ± 6% 43% ± 6% Harris 2020 54.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 5, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% New Mexico 91% 9% <1% RFKOdds of winning | October 5, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | New Mexico

Trump 43% ± 6% Harris 53% ± 6% RFK 3% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | New Mexico 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-07-01 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 Election 2024 Biden drops out Trump Harris RFK October 5, 2024 2024-06-11 Harris 49% Trump 45% RFK 4% 2024-06-11 2024-06-13 Harris 50% Trump 45% RFK 4% 2024-06-13 2024-06-15 Harris 50% Trump 45% RFK 5% 2024-06-15 2024-06-17 Harris 50% Trump 45% RFK 5% 2024-06-17 2024-06-19 Harris 51% Trump 44% RFK 4% 2024-06-19 2024-06-21 Harris 50% Trump 44% RFK 4% 2024-06-21 2024-06-23 Harris 51% Trump 44% RFK 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-25 Harris 50% Trump 44% RFK 4% 2024-06-25 2024-06-27 Harris 51% Trump 44% RFK 4% 2024-06-27 2024-06-29 Harris 51% Trump 44% RFK 4% 2024-06-29 2024-07-01 Harris 51% Trump 44% RFK 4% 2024-07-01 2024-07-03 Harris 50% Trump 45% RFK 4% 2024-07-03 2024-07-05 Harris 50% Trump 45% RFK 4% 2024-07-05 2024-07-07 Harris 49% Trump 46% RFK 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-09 Harris 49% Trump 46% RFK 4% 2024-07-09 2024-07-11 Harris 49% Trump 46% RFK 4% 2024-07-11 2024-07-13 Harris 49% Trump 46% RFK 4% 2024-07-13 2024-07-15 Harris 49% Trump 46% RFK 4% 2024-07-15 2024-07-17 Harris 49% Trump 46% RFK 4% 2024-07-17 2024-07-19 Harris 49% Trump 46% RFK 4% 2024-07-19 2024-07-23 Harris 49% Trump 46% RFK 4% 2024-07-23 2024-07-25 Harris 49% Trump 46% RFK 4% 2024-07-25 2024-07-27 Harris 49% Trump 46% RFK 4% 2024-07-27 2024-07-29 Harris 49% Trump 46% RFK 4% 2024-07-29 2024-07-31 Harris 50% Trump 45% RFK 4% 2024-07-31 2024-08-02 Harris 50% Trump 45% RFK 4% 2024-08-02 2024-08-04 Harris 50% Trump 45% RFK 4% 2024-08-04 2024-08-06 Harris 50% Trump 45% RFK 4% 2024-08-06 2024-08-08 Harris 50% Trump 44% RFK 4% 2024-08-08 2024-08-10 Harris 50% Trump 44% RFK 4% 2024-08-10 2024-08-12 Harris 50% Trump 44% RFK 4% 2024-08-12 2024-08-14 Harris 50% Trump 44% RFK 4% 2024-08-14 2024-08-16 Harris 50% Trump 44% RFK 4% 2024-08-16 2024-08-18 Harris 51% Trump 44% RFK 4% 2024-08-18 2024-08-20 Harris 51% Trump 44% RFK 5% 2024-08-20 2024-08-22 Harris 51% Trump 44% RFK 3% 2024-08-22 2024-08-24 Harris 52% Trump 45% RFK 3% 2024-08-24 2024-08-26 Harris 52% Trump 44% RFK 3% 2024-08-26 2024-08-28 Harris 52% Trump 44% RFK 3% 2024-08-28 2024-08-30 Harris 52% Trump 44% RFK 3% 2024-08-30 2024-09-01 Harris 52% Trump 44% RFK 3% 2024-09-01 2024-09-03 Harris 52% Trump 44% RFK 3% 2024-09-03 2024-09-05 Harris 52% Trump 44% RFK 3% 2024-09-05 2024-09-09 Harris 52% Trump 44% RFK 3% 2024-09-09 2024-09-11 Harris 52% Trump 44% RFK 3% 2024-09-11 2024-09-13 Harris 51% Trump 45% RFK 3% 2024-09-13 2024-09-15 Harris 52% Trump 44% RFK 3% 2024-09-15 2024-09-17 Harris 52% Trump 44% RFK 3% 2024-09-17 2024-09-19 Harris 53% Trump 43% RFK 3% 2024-09-19 2024-09-23 Harris 53% Trump 43% RFK 3% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 Harris 53% Trump 43% RFK 3% 2024-09-25 2024-09-27 Harris 53% Trump 43% RFK 3% 2024-09-27 2024-09-29 Harris 53% Trump 43% RFK 3% 2024-09-29 2024-10-03 Harris 53% Trump 43% RFK 3% 2024-10-03 2024-10-05 Harris 53% Trump 43% RFK 3% 2024-10-05

Odds of winning | New Mexico

Trump 9% Harris 91% Odds of winning the Electoral College 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-07-01 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 Election 2024 Biden drops out Trump Harris October 5, 2024 2024-06-11 Harris 69% Trump 31% 2024-06-11 2024-06-13 Harris 75% Trump 25% 2024-06-13 2024-06-15 Harris 76% Trump 24% 2024-06-15 2024-06-17 Harris 76% Trump 24% 2024-06-17 2024-06-19 Harris 82% Trump 18% 2024-06-19 2024-06-21 Harris 83% Trump 17% 2024-06-21 2024-06-23 Harris 83% Trump 17% 2024-06-23 2024-06-25 Harris 83% Trump 17% 2024-06-25 2024-06-27 Harris 84% Trump 16% 2024-06-27 2024-06-29 Harris 83% Trump 17% 2024-06-29 2024-07-01 Harris 81% Trump 19% 2024-07-01 2024-07-03 Harris 76% Trump 24% 2024-07-03 2024-07-05 Harris 72% Trump 28% 2024-07-05 2024-07-07 Harris 67% Trump 33% 2024-07-07 2024-07-09 Harris 67% Trump 33% 2024-07-09 2024-07-11 Harris 67% Trump 33% 2024-07-11 2024-07-13 Harris 68% Trump 32% 2024-07-13 2024-07-15 Harris 68% Trump 32% 2024-07-15 2024-07-17 Harris 68% Trump 32% 2024-07-17 2024-07-19 Harris 68% Trump 32% 2024-07-19 2024-07-23 Harris 70% Trump 30% 2024-07-23 2024-07-25 Harris 70% Trump 30% 2024-07-25 2024-07-27 Harris 69% Trump 31% 2024-07-27 2024-07-29 Harris 70% Trump 30% 2024-07-29 2024-07-31 Harris 73% Trump 27% 2024-07-31 2024-08-02 Harris 72% Trump 28% 2024-08-02 2024-08-04 Harris 74% Trump 26% 2024-08-04 2024-08-06 Harris 75% Trump 25% 2024-08-06 2024-08-08 Harris 81% Trump 19% 2024-08-08 2024-08-10 Harris 81% Trump 19% 2024-08-10 2024-08-12 Harris 81% Trump 19% 2024-08-12 2024-08-14 Harris 81% Trump 19% 2024-08-14 2024-08-16 Harris 80% Trump 20% 2024-08-16 2024-08-18 Harris 80% Trump 20% 2024-08-18 2024-08-20 Harris 81% Trump 19% 2024-08-20 2024-08-22 Harris 81% Trump 19% 2024-08-22 2024-08-24 Harris 83% Trump 17% 2024-08-24 2024-08-26 Harris 85% Trump 15% 2024-08-26 2024-08-28 Harris 86% Trump 14% 2024-08-28 2024-08-30 Harris 86% Trump 14% 2024-08-30 2024-09-01 Harris 86% Trump 14% 2024-09-01 2024-09-03 Harris 86% Trump 14% 2024-09-03 2024-09-05 Harris 84% Trump 16% 2024-09-05 2024-09-09 Harris 84% Trump 16% 2024-09-09 2024-09-11 Harris 83% Trump 17% 2024-09-11 2024-09-13 Harris 82% Trump 18% 2024-09-13 2024-09-15 Harris 84% Trump 16% 2024-09-15 2024-09-17 Harris 85% Trump 15% 2024-09-17 2024-09-19 Harris 92% Trump 8% 2024-09-19 2024-09-23 Harris 93% Trump 7% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 Harris 93% Trump 7% 2024-09-25 2024-09-27 Harris 93% Trump 7% 2024-09-27 2024-09-29 Harris 91% Trump 9% 2024-09-29 2024-10-03 Harris 91% Trump 9% 2024-10-03 2024-10-05 Harris 91% Trump 9% 2024-10-05

Recent electoral history | New Mexico



2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Proj. DEM 49.0% 56.9% 53.0% 48.3% 54.3% 53% ± 6% REP 49.8% 41.8% 42.8% 40.0% 43.5% 43% ± 6% RFK 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3% ± 2%