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Florida, 30 Electoral Votes


(Winner-take-all)
Latest update: October 3, 2024
Leaning Trump
Florida 51% ± 5% 47% ± 5% Trump 2020 51.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 3, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Florida 74%▲ 26%▼ <1% RFKOdds of winning | October 3, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Florida

Trump 51% ± 5% Harris 47% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Florida 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-07-01 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 Election 2024 Biden drops out Trump Harris October 3, 2024 2024-06-11 Trump 50% Harris 46% 2024-06-11 2024-06-13 Trump 50% Harris 46% 2024-06-13 2024-06-15 Trump 49% Harris 46% 2024-06-15 2024-06-17 Trump 49% Harris 46% 2024-06-17 2024-06-19 Trump 49% Harris 46% 2024-06-19 2024-06-21 Trump 49% Harris 46% 2024-06-21 2024-06-23 Trump 49% Harris 45% 2024-06-23 2024-06-25 Trump 49% Harris 45% 2024-06-25 2024-06-27 Trump 48% Harris 45% 2024-06-27 2024-06-29 Trump 49% Harris 45% 2024-06-29 2024-07-01 Trump 49% Harris 44% 2024-07-01 2024-07-03 Trump 49% Harris 44% 2024-07-03 2024-07-05 Trump 49% Harris 43% 2024-07-05 2024-07-07 Trump 50% Harris 43% 2024-07-07 2024-07-09 Trump 50% Harris 43% 2024-07-09 2024-07-11 Trump 50% Harris 43% 2024-07-11 2024-07-13 Trump 50% Harris 43% 2024-07-13 2024-07-15 Trump 50% Harris 43% 2024-07-15 2024-07-17 Trump 50% Harris 43% 2024-07-17 2024-07-19 Trump 50% Harris 43% 2024-07-19 2024-07-23 Trump 50% Harris 43% 2024-07-23 2024-07-25 Trump 49% Harris 44% 2024-07-25 2024-07-27 Trump 50% Harris 43% 2024-07-27 2024-07-29 Trump 50% Harris 43% 2024-07-29 2024-07-31 Trump 50% Harris 43% 2024-07-31 2024-08-02 Trump 50% Harris 43% 2024-08-02 2024-08-04 Trump 50% Harris 43% 2024-08-04 2024-08-06 Trump 50% Harris 43% 2024-08-06 2024-08-08 Trump 50% Harris 43% 2024-08-08 2024-08-10 Trump 51% Harris 43% 2024-08-10 2024-08-12 Trump 51% Harris 43% 2024-08-12 2024-08-14 Trump 51% Harris 43% 2024-08-14 2024-08-16 Trump 50% Harris 44% 2024-08-16 2024-08-18 Trump 50% Harris 44% 2024-08-18 2024-08-20 Trump 50% Harris 44% 2024-08-20 2024-08-22 Trump 50% Harris 45% 2024-08-22 2024-08-24 Trump 51% Harris 45% 2024-08-24 2024-08-26 Trump 51% Harris 45% 2024-08-26 2024-08-28 Trump 51% Harris 45% 2024-08-28 2024-08-30 Trump 51% Harris 45% 2024-08-30 2024-09-01 Trump 51% Harris 45% 2024-09-01 2024-09-03 Trump 51% Harris 45% 2024-09-03 2024-09-05 Trump 51% Harris 45% 2024-09-05 2024-09-09 Trump 51% Harris 46% 2024-09-09 2024-09-11 Trump 51% Harris 46% 2024-09-11 2024-09-13 Trump 51% Harris 46% 2024-09-13 2024-09-15 Trump 51% Harris 46% 2024-09-15 2024-09-17 Trump 51% Harris 46% 2024-09-17 2024-09-19 Trump 51% Harris 46% 2024-09-19 2024-09-23 Trump 51% Harris 47% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 Trump 51% Harris 47% 2024-09-25 2024-09-27 Trump 51% Harris 47% 2024-09-27 2024-09-29 Trump 51% Harris 47% 2024-09-29 2024-10-03 Trump 51% Harris 47% 2024-10-03

Odds of winning | Florida

Trump 74% Harris 26% Odds of winning the Electoral College 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-07-01 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 Election 2024 Biden drops out Trump Harris October 3, 2024 2024-06-11 Trump 81% Harris 19% 2024-06-11 2024-06-13 Trump 79% Harris 21% 2024-06-13 2024-06-15 Trump 75% Harris 25% 2024-06-15 2024-06-17 Trump 75% Harris 25% 2024-06-17 2024-06-19 Trump 75% Harris 25% 2024-06-19 2024-06-21 Trump 75% Harris 25% 2024-06-21 2024-06-23 Trump 77% Harris 23% 2024-06-23 2024-06-25 Trump 77% Harris 23% 2024-06-25 2024-06-27 Trump 78% Harris 22% 2024-06-27 2024-06-29 Trump 77% Harris 23% 2024-06-29 2024-07-01 Trump 78% Harris 22% 2024-07-01 2024-07-03 Trump 78% Harris 22% 2024-07-03 2024-07-05 Trump 87% Harris 13% 2024-07-05 2024-07-07 Trump 89% Harris 11% 2024-07-07 2024-07-09 Trump 89% Harris 11% 2024-07-09 2024-07-11 Trump 90% Harris 10% 2024-07-11 2024-07-13 Trump 92% Harris 8% 2024-07-13 2024-07-15 Trump 92% Harris 8% 2024-07-15 2024-07-17 Trump 92% Harris 8% 2024-07-17 2024-07-19 Trump 92% Harris 8% 2024-07-19 2024-07-23 Trump 90% Harris 10% 2024-07-23 2024-07-25 Trump 87% Harris 13% 2024-07-25 2024-07-27 Trump 90% Harris 10% 2024-07-27 2024-07-29 Trump 91% Harris 9% 2024-07-29 2024-07-31 Trump 90% Harris 10% 2024-07-31 2024-08-02 Trump 91% Harris 9% 2024-08-02 2024-08-04 Trump 91% Harris 9% 2024-08-04 2024-08-06 Trump 90% Harris 10% 2024-08-06 2024-08-08 Trump 90% Harris 10% 2024-08-08 2024-08-10 Trump 94% Harris 6% 2024-08-10 2024-08-12 Trump 94% Harris 6% 2024-08-12 2024-08-14 Trump 94% Harris 6% 2024-08-14 2024-08-16 Trump 87% Harris 13% 2024-08-16 2024-08-18 Trump 86% Harris 14% 2024-08-18 2024-08-20 Trump 86% Harris 14% 2024-08-20 2024-08-22 Trump 83% Harris 17% 2024-08-22 2024-08-24 Trump 83% Harris 17% 2024-08-24 2024-08-26 Trump 83% Harris 17% 2024-08-26 2024-08-28 Trump 83% Harris 17% 2024-08-28 2024-08-30 Trump 84% Harris 16% 2024-08-30 2024-09-01 Trump 84% Harris 16% 2024-09-01 2024-09-03 Trump 83% Harris 17% 2024-09-03 2024-09-05 Trump 84% Harris 16% 2024-09-05 2024-09-09 Trump 79% Harris 21% 2024-09-09 2024-09-11 Trump 81% Harris 19% 2024-09-11 2024-09-13 Trump 78% Harris 22% 2024-09-13 2024-09-15 Trump 79% Harris 21% 2024-09-15 2024-09-17 Trump 81% Harris 19% 2024-09-17 2024-09-19 Trump 81% Harris 19% 2024-09-19 2024-09-23 Trump 76% Harris 24% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 Trump 76% Harris 24% 2024-09-25 2024-09-27 Trump 76% Harris 24% 2024-09-27 2024-09-29 Trump 71% Harris 29% 2024-09-29 2024-10-03 Trump 74% Harris 26% 2024-10-03

Recent electoral history | Florida



2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Proj. REP 52.1% 48.2% 49.1% 49.0% 51.2% 51% ± 5% DEM 47.1% 51.0% 50.0% 47.8% 47.9% 47% ± 5% RFK 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 1%