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South Carolina, 9 Electoral Votes


(Winner-take-all)
Latest update: November 6, 2024
Safe Trump
South Carolina 57% ± 0%▲ 41% ± 0%▼ Trump 2020 55.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 6, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% South Carolina >99%▲ <1%▼ <1% RFKOdds of winning | November 6, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | South Carolina

Trump 57% ± 0% Harris 41% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | South Carolina 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-07-01 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 Election 2024 Biden drops out Trump Harris November 6, 2024 2024-06-11 Trump 57% Harris 39% 2024-06-11 2024-06-13 Trump 56% Harris 39% 2024-06-13 2024-06-15 Trump 56% Harris 39% 2024-06-15 2024-06-17 Trump 56% Harris 39% 2024-06-17 2024-06-19 Trump 55% Harris 40% 2024-06-19 2024-06-21 Trump 55% Harris 40% 2024-06-21 2024-06-23 Trump 55% Harris 40% 2024-06-23 2024-06-25 Trump 55% Harris 40% 2024-06-25 2024-06-27 Trump 55% Harris 40% 2024-06-27 2024-06-29 Trump 56% Harris 40% 2024-06-29 2024-07-01 Trump 56% Harris 40% 2024-07-01 2024-07-03 Trump 56% Harris 40% 2024-07-03 2024-07-05 Trump 56% Harris 39% 2024-07-05 2024-07-07 Trump 56% Harris 39% 2024-07-07 2024-07-09 Trump 56% Harris 39% 2024-07-09 2024-07-11 Trump 56% Harris 39% 2024-07-11 2024-07-13 Trump 56% Harris 39% 2024-07-13 2024-07-15 Trump 56% Harris 39% 2024-07-15 2024-07-17 Trump 56% Harris 39% 2024-07-17 2024-07-19 Trump 56% Harris 39% 2024-07-19 2024-07-23 Trump 56% Harris 40% 2024-07-23 2024-07-25 Trump 55% Harris 40% 2024-07-25 2024-07-27 Trump 55% Harris 40% 2024-07-27 2024-07-29 Trump 55% Harris 40% 2024-07-29 2024-07-31 Trump 55% Harris 40% 2024-07-31 2024-08-02 Trump 55% Harris 40% 2024-08-02 2024-08-04 Trump 55% Harris 40% 2024-08-04 2024-08-06 Trump 55% Harris 41% 2024-08-06 2024-08-08 Trump 55% Harris 41% 2024-08-08 2024-08-10 Trump 55% Harris 41% 2024-08-10 2024-08-12 Trump 55% Harris 41% 2024-08-12 2024-08-14 Trump 55% Harris 41% 2024-08-14 2024-08-16 Trump 55% Harris 41% 2024-08-16 2024-08-18 Trump 55% Harris 41% 2024-08-18 2024-08-20 Trump 54% Harris 41% 2024-08-20 2024-08-22 Trump 55% Harris 41% 2024-08-22 2024-08-24 Trump 55% Harris 42% 2024-08-24 2024-08-26 Trump 55% Harris 42% 2024-08-26 2024-08-28 Trump 55% Harris 42% 2024-08-28 2024-08-30 Trump 55% Harris 42% 2024-08-30 2024-09-01 Trump 55% Harris 42% 2024-09-01 2024-09-03 Trump 55% Harris 42% 2024-09-03 2024-09-05 Trump 55% Harris 42% 2024-09-05 2024-09-09 Trump 55% Harris 42% 2024-09-09 2024-09-11 Trump 55% Harris 42% 2024-09-11 2024-09-13 Trump 55% Harris 42% 2024-09-13 2024-09-15 Trump 55% Harris 42% 2024-09-15 2024-09-17 Trump 55% Harris 42% 2024-09-17 2024-09-19 Trump 55% Harris 42% 2024-09-19 2024-09-23 Trump 55% Harris 42% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 Trump 55% Harris 42% 2024-09-25 2024-09-27 Trump 54% Harris 42% 2024-09-27 2024-09-29 Trump 54% Harris 42% 2024-09-29 2024-10-03 Trump 55% Harris 42% 2024-10-03 2024-10-05 Trump 54% Harris 43% 2024-10-05 2024-10-08 Trump 54% Harris 43% 2024-10-08 2024-10-10 Trump 54% Harris 43% 2024-10-10 2024-10-14 Trump 54% Harris 43% 2024-10-14 2024-10-17 Trump 54% Harris 43% 2024-10-17 2024-10-22 Trump 54% Harris 43% 2024-10-22 2024-10-26 Trump 54% Harris 43% 2024-10-26 2024-10-29 Trump 54% Harris 43% 2024-10-29 2024-10-30 Trump 55% Harris 42% 2024-10-30 2024-11-01 Trump 55% Harris 42% 2024-11-01 2024-11-02 Trump 55% Harris 42% 2024-11-02 2024-11-03 Trump 55% Harris 42% 2024-11-03 2024-11-04 Trump 55% Harris 42% 2024-11-04 2024-11-05 Trump 55% Harris 42% 2024-11-05 2024-11-06 Trump 57% Harris 41% 2024-11-06

Odds of winning | South Carolina

Trump >99% Harris <1% Odds of winning the Electoral College 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-07-01 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 Election 2024 Biden drops out Trump Harris November 6, 2024 2024-06-11 Trump >99% Harris <1% 2024-06-11 2024-06-13 Trump >99% Harris <1% 2024-06-13 2024-06-15 Trump >99% Harris <1% 2024-06-15 2024-06-17 Trump >99% Harris <1% 2024-06-17 2024-06-19 Trump 99% Harris 1% 2024-06-19 2024-06-21 Trump 99% Harris 1% 2024-06-21 2024-06-23 Trump >99% Harris <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-25 Trump >99% Harris <1% 2024-06-25 2024-06-27 Trump 99% Harris 1% 2024-06-27 2024-06-29 Trump 99% Harris 1% 2024-06-29 2024-07-01 Trump 99% Harris 1% 2024-07-01 2024-07-03 Trump >99% Harris <1% 2024-07-03 2024-07-05 Trump >99% Harris <1% 2024-07-05 2024-07-07 Trump >99% Harris <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-09 Trump >99% Harris <1% 2024-07-09 2024-07-11 Trump >99% Harris <1% 2024-07-11 2024-07-13 Trump >99% Harris <1% 2024-07-13 2024-07-15 Trump >99% Harris <1% 2024-07-15 2024-07-17 Trump >99% Harris <1% 2024-07-17 2024-07-19 Trump >99% Harris <1% 2024-07-19 2024-07-23 Trump >99% Harris <1% 2024-07-23 2024-07-25 Trump 99% Harris 1% 2024-07-25 2024-07-27 Trump 99% Harris 1% 2024-07-27 2024-07-29 Trump 99% Harris 1% 2024-07-29 2024-07-31 Trump 99% Harris 1% 2024-07-31 2024-08-02 Trump 99% Harris 1% 2024-08-02 2024-08-04 Trump 99% Harris 1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-06 Trump 99% Harris 1% 2024-08-06 2024-08-08 Trump 99% Harris 1% 2024-08-08 2024-08-10 Trump 99% Harris 1% 2024-08-10 2024-08-12 Trump 99% Harris 1% 2024-08-12 2024-08-14 Trump 99% Harris 1% 2024-08-14 2024-08-16 Trump 99% Harris 1% 2024-08-16 2024-08-18 Trump 98% Harris 2% 2024-08-18 2024-08-20 Trump 98% Harris 2% 2024-08-20 2024-08-22 Trump 98% Harris 2% 2024-08-22 2024-08-24 Trump 98% Harris 2% 2024-08-24 2024-08-26 Trump 98% Harris 2% 2024-08-26 2024-08-28 Trump 98% Harris 2% 2024-08-28 2024-08-30 Trump 98% Harris 2% 2024-08-30 2024-09-01 Trump 98% Harris 2% 2024-09-01 2024-09-03 Trump 98% Harris 2% 2024-09-03 2024-09-05 Trump 98% Harris 2% 2024-09-05 2024-09-09 Trump 98% Harris 2% 2024-09-09 2024-09-11 Trump 98% Harris 2% 2024-09-11 2024-09-13 Trump 98% Harris 2% 2024-09-13 2024-09-15 Trump 98% Harris 2% 2024-09-15 2024-09-17 Trump 98% Harris 2% 2024-09-17 2024-09-19 Trump 98% Harris 2% 2024-09-19 2024-09-23 Trump 98% Harris 2% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 Trump 98% Harris 2% 2024-09-25 2024-09-27 Trump 97% Harris 3% 2024-09-27 2024-09-29 Trump 97% Harris 3% 2024-09-29 2024-10-03 Trump 98% Harris 2% 2024-10-03 2024-10-05 Trump 96% Harris 4% 2024-10-05 2024-10-08 Trump 96% Harris 4% 2024-10-08 2024-10-10 Trump 96% Harris 4% 2024-10-10 2024-10-14 Trump 96% Harris 4% 2024-10-14 2024-10-17 Trump 95% Harris 5% 2024-10-17 2024-10-22 Trump 96% Harris 4% 2024-10-22 2024-10-26 Trump 96% Harris 4% 2024-10-26 2024-10-29 Trump 97% Harris 3% 2024-10-29 2024-10-30 Trump 97% Harris 3% 2024-10-30 2024-11-01 Trump 98% Harris 2% 2024-11-01 2024-11-02 Trump 98% Harris 2% 2024-11-02 2024-11-03 Trump 97% Harris 3% 2024-11-03 2024-11-04 Trump 98% Harris 2% 2024-11-04 2024-11-05 Trump 99% Harris 1% 2024-11-05 2024-11-06 Trump >99% Harris <1% 2024-11-06

Recent electoral history | South Carolina



2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Proj. REP 58.0% 53.9% 54.6% 54.9% 55.1% 57% ± 4% DEM 40.9% 44.9% 44.1% 40.7% 43.4% 41% ± 4% RFK 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 1%