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Arizona - 11 electoral votes
Latest projection - November 3, 2020 [FINAL]
| Firm | Date (middle) | Sample | DEM | REP | Leader |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 338Canada projection | 2020-11-03 | 48.9 | 46.9 | Biden +2.0 | |
| AtlasIntel | 2020-10-31 | 641 | 48 | 50 | Trump +2 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-31 | 610 | 50 | 47 | Biden +3 |
| Marist College | 2020-10-31 | 717 | 48 | 48 | Tie |
| Change Research | 2020-10-31 | 409 | 50 | 47 | Biden +3 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-30 | 732 | 48 | 46 | Biden +2 |
| Data Orbital | 2020-10-29 | 550 | 46 | 45 | Biden +1 |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse OR | 2020-10-28 | 800 | 45 | 49 | Trump +4 |
| Siena College/NYT | 2020-10-28 | 1252 | 49 | 43 | Biden +6 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-10-28 | 889 | 50 | 46 | Biden +4 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2020-10-27 | 704 | 52 | 48 | Biden +4 |
| CNN/SSRS | 2020-10-27 | 865 | 50 | 46 | Biden +4 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-27 | 1059 | 48 | 46 | Biden +2 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-10-24 | 472 | 47 | 50 | Trump +3 |
| OH Predictive Insights | 2020-10-24 | 716 | 49 | 46 | Biden +3 |
| The Justice Collaborative Institute | 2020-10-24 | 1007 | 52 | 45 | Biden +7 |
| Susquehanna Polling | 2020-10-21 | 500 | 46 | 47 | Trump +1 |
| University of Houston | 2020-10-21 | 725 | 50 | 45 | Biden +5 |
| Y2 Analytics | 2020-10-20 | 700 | 50 | 47 | Biden +3 |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse OR | 2020-10-19 | 800 | 48 | 46 | Biden +2 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-18 | 658 | 50 | 46 | Biden +4 |
| Data Orbital | 2020-10-17 | 550 | 51 | 45 | Biden +6 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-16 | 1066 | 47 | 48 | Trump +1 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-15 | 1074 | 50 | 47 | Biden +3 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-11 | 667 | 50 | 46 | Biden +4 |
| Monmouth University | 2020-10-11 | 502 | 50 | 44 | Biden +6 |
[For the complete list of polls, follow this link.]
If Trump/Biden wins Arizona...
| Odds of winning election | Odds of losing election | Odds of 269-269 tie | |
|---|---|---|---|
| If Biden wins Arizona... | 97% | 3% | <1% |
| If Biden loses Arizona... | 55% | 43% | 2% |
| If Trump wins Arizona... | 43% | 55% | 2% |
| If Trump loses Arizona... | 3% | 97% | <1% |