338Canada.com - USA - Arizona


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Arizona - 11 electoral votes


Latest projection - November 3, 2020 [FINAL]

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Firm Date (middle) Sample DEM REP Leader
338Canada projection2020-11-03 48.9 46.9 Biden +2.0
AtlasIntel 2020-10-31 641 48 50 Trump +2
Ipsos 2020-10-31 610 50 47 Biden +3
Marist College 2020-10-31 717 48 48 Tie
Change Research 2020-10-31 409 50 47 Biden +3
Emerson College 2020-10-30 732 48 46 Biden +2
Data Orbital 2020-10-29 550 46 45 Biden +1
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse OR 2020-10-28 800 45 49 Trump +4
Siena College/NYT 2020-10-28 1252 49 43 Biden +6
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 2020-10-28 889 50 46 Biden +4
Gravis Marketing 2020-10-27 704 52 48 Biden +4
CNN/SSRS 2020-10-27 865 50 46 Biden +4
Morning Consult 2020-10-27 1059 48 46 Biden +2
Trafalgar Group 2020-10-24 472 47 50 Trump +3
OH Predictive Insights 2020-10-24 716 49 46 Biden +3
The Justice Collaborative Institute 2020-10-24 1007 52 45 Biden +7
Susquehanna Polling 2020-10-21 500 46 47 Trump +1
University of Houston 2020-10-21 725 50 45 Biden +5
Y2 Analytics 2020-10-20 700 50 47 Biden +3
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse OR 2020-10-19 800 48 46 Biden +2
Ipsos 2020-10-18 658 50 46 Biden +4
Data Orbital 2020-10-17 550 51 45 Biden +6
Morning Consult 2020-10-16 1066 47 48 Trump +1
YouGov 2020-10-15 1074 50 47 Biden +3
Ipsos 2020-10-11 667 50 46 Biden +4
Monmouth University 2020-10-11 502 50 44 Biden +6


[For the complete list of polls, follow this link.]

If Trump/Biden wins Arizona...


Odds of winning election Odds of losing election Odds of 269-269 tie
If Biden wins Arizona... 97% 3% <1%
If Biden loses Arizona... 55% 43% 2%
If Trump wins Arizona... 43% 55% 2%
If Trump loses Arizona... 3% 97% <1%





Popular vote projection - Arizona

Latest update: November 3, 2020 [FINAL]







Odds of winning - Arizona

Latest update: November 3, 2020 [FINAL]




Electoral history 2004-2016 - Arizona



(If you cannot see the graph above, turn your phone by 90°.)