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Arizona, 11 Electoral Votes


(Winner-take-all)
Latest update: November 6, 2024
Leaning Trump
Arizona 52% ± 0%▲ 47% ± 0%▼ Harris 2020 49.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 6, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Arizona 87%▲ 13%▼ <1% RFKOdds of winning | November 6, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Arizona

Trump 52% ± 0% Harris 47% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Arizona 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-07-01 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 Election 2024 Biden drops out Trump Harris November 6, 2024 2024-06-11 Trump 49% Harris 47% 2024-06-11 2024-06-13 Trump 50% Harris 46% 2024-06-13 2024-06-15 Trump 50% Harris 45% 2024-06-15 2024-06-17 Trump 50% Harris 45% 2024-06-17 2024-06-19 Trump 50% Harris 45% 2024-06-19 2024-06-21 Trump 50% Harris 45% 2024-06-21 2024-06-23 Trump 50% Harris 45% 2024-06-23 2024-06-25 Trump 50% Harris 45% 2024-06-25 2024-06-27 Trump 50% Harris 45% 2024-06-27 2024-06-29 Trump 50% Harris 45% 2024-06-29 2024-07-01 Trump 50% Harris 45% 2024-07-01 2024-07-03 Trump 50% Harris 45% 2024-07-03 2024-07-05 Trump 50% Harris 45% 2024-07-05 2024-07-07 Trump 50% Harris 45% 2024-07-07 2024-07-09 Trump 50% Harris 44% 2024-07-09 2024-07-11 Trump 50% Harris 44% 2024-07-11 2024-07-13 Trump 50% Harris 44% 2024-07-13 2024-07-15 Trump 50% Harris 44% 2024-07-15 2024-07-17 Trump 50% Harris 44% 2024-07-17 2024-07-19 Trump 50% Harris 44% 2024-07-19 2024-07-23 Trump 50% Harris 44% 2024-07-23 2024-07-25 Trump 50% Harris 44% 2024-07-25 2024-07-27 Trump 50% Harris 44% 2024-07-27 2024-07-29 Trump 50% Harris 44% 2024-07-29 2024-07-31 Trump 49% Harris 45% 2024-07-31 2024-08-02 Trump 48% Harris 45% 2024-08-02 2024-08-04 Trump 48% Harris 46% 2024-08-04 2024-08-06 Trump 48% Harris 46% 2024-08-06 2024-08-08 Trump 47% Harris 47% 2024-08-08 2024-08-10 Harris 47% Trump 47% 2024-08-10 2024-08-12 Harris 47% Trump 47% 2024-08-12 2024-08-14 Harris 47% Trump 47% 2024-08-14 2024-08-16 Trump 47% Harris 47% 2024-08-16 2024-08-18 Harris 47% Trump 47% 2024-08-18 2024-08-20 Harris 47% Trump 47% 2024-08-20 2024-08-22 Harris 48% Trump 47% 2024-08-22 2024-08-24 Harris 49% Trump 48% 2024-08-24 2024-08-26 Harris 49% Trump 48% 2024-08-26 2024-08-28 Harris 48% Trump 48% 2024-08-28 2024-08-30 Trump 48% Harris 48% 2024-08-30 2024-09-01 Trump 48% Harris 48% 2024-09-01 2024-09-03 Trump 48% Harris 48% 2024-09-03 2024-09-05 Trump 49% Harris 47% 2024-09-05 2024-09-09 Trump 48% Harris 48% 2024-09-09 2024-09-11 Trump 48% Harris 48% 2024-09-11 2024-09-13 Trump 48% Harris 48% 2024-09-13 2024-09-15 Trump 48% Harris 48% 2024-09-15 2024-09-17 Trump 48% Harris 48% 2024-09-17 2024-09-19 Trump 49% Harris 48% 2024-09-19 2024-09-23 Trump 49% Harris 48% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 Trump 50% Harris 47% 2024-09-25 2024-09-27 Trump 49% Harris 48% 2024-09-27 2024-09-29 Trump 49% Harris 48% 2024-09-29 2024-10-03 Trump 49% Harris 48% 2024-10-03 2024-10-05 Trump 49% Harris 48% 2024-10-05 2024-10-08 Trump 49% Harris 48% 2024-10-08 2024-10-10 Trump 49% Harris 48% 2024-10-10 2024-10-14 Trump 49% Harris 48% 2024-10-14 2024-10-17 Trump 49% Harris 48% 2024-10-17 2024-10-22 Trump 49% Harris 48% 2024-10-22 2024-10-26 Trump 49% Harris 48% 2024-10-26 2024-10-29 Trump 49% Harris 48% 2024-10-29 2024-10-30 Trump 49% Harris 48% 2024-10-30 2024-11-01 Trump 49% Harris 48% 2024-11-01 2024-11-02 Trump 50% Harris 47% 2024-11-02 2024-11-03 Trump 49% Harris 48% 2024-11-03 2024-11-04 Trump 49% Harris 48% 2024-11-04 2024-11-05 Trump 49% Harris 48% 2024-11-05 2024-11-06 Trump 52% Harris 47% 2024-11-06

Odds of winning | Arizona

Trump 87% Harris 13% Odds of winning the Electoral College 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-07-01 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 Election 2024 Biden drops out Trump Harris November 6, 2024 2024-06-11 Trump 64% Harris 36% 2024-06-11 2024-06-13 Trump 74% Harris 26% 2024-06-13 2024-06-15 Trump 77% Harris 23% 2024-06-15 2024-06-17 Trump 78% Harris 22% 2024-06-17 2024-06-19 Trump 79% Harris 21% 2024-06-19 2024-06-21 Trump 80% Harris 20% 2024-06-21 2024-06-23 Trump 80% Harris 20% 2024-06-23 2024-06-25 Trump 81% Harris 19% 2024-06-25 2024-06-27 Trump 79% Harris 21% 2024-06-27 2024-06-29 Trump 78% Harris 22% 2024-06-29 2024-07-01 Trump 79% Harris 21% 2024-07-01 2024-07-03 Trump 79% Harris 21% 2024-07-03 2024-07-05 Trump 81% Harris 19% 2024-07-05 2024-07-07 Trump 80% Harris 20% 2024-07-07 2024-07-09 Trump 86% Harris 14% 2024-07-09 2024-07-11 Trump 86% Harris 14% 2024-07-11 2024-07-13 Trump 88% Harris 12% 2024-07-13 2024-07-15 Trump 88% Harris 12% 2024-07-15 2024-07-17 Trump 88% Harris 12% 2024-07-17 2024-07-19 Trump 87% Harris 13% 2024-07-19 2024-07-23 Trump 86% Harris 14% 2024-07-23 2024-07-25 Trump 88% Harris 12% 2024-07-25 2024-07-27 Trump 83% Harris 17% 2024-07-27 2024-07-29 Trump 83% Harris 17% 2024-07-29 2024-07-31 Trump 75% Harris 25% 2024-07-31 2024-08-02 Trump 70% Harris 30% 2024-08-02 2024-08-04 Trump 64% Harris 36% 2024-08-04 2024-08-06 Trump 58% Harris 42% 2024-08-06 2024-08-08 Trump 50% Harris 50% 2024-08-08 2024-08-10 Harris 54% Trump 46% 2024-08-10 2024-08-12 Harris 54% Trump 46% 2024-08-12 2024-08-14 Harris 51% Trump 49% 2024-08-14 2024-08-16 Trump 51% Harris 49% 2024-08-16 2024-08-18 Harris 56% Trump 44% 2024-08-18 2024-08-20 Harris 56% Trump 44% 2024-08-20 2024-08-22 Harris 57% Trump 43% 2024-08-22 2024-08-24 Harris 57% Trump 43% 2024-08-24 2024-08-26 Harris 56% Trump 44% 2024-08-26 2024-08-28 Harris 53% Trump 47% 2024-08-28 2024-08-30 Trump 52% Harris 48% 2024-08-30 2024-09-01 Trump 51% Harris 49% 2024-09-01 2024-09-03 Trump 53% Harris 47% 2024-09-03 2024-09-05 Trump 58% Harris 42% 2024-09-05 2024-09-09 Trump 53% Harris 47% 2024-09-09 2024-09-11 Trump 53% Harris 47% 2024-09-11 2024-09-13 Trump 55% Harris 45% 2024-09-13 2024-09-15 Trump 53% Harris 47% 2024-09-15 2024-09-17 Trump 53% Harris 47% 2024-09-17 2024-09-19 Trump 57% Harris 43% 2024-09-19 2024-09-23 Trump 59% Harris 41% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 Trump 64% Harris 36% 2024-09-25 2024-09-27 Trump 60% Harris 40% 2024-09-27 2024-09-29 Trump 60% Harris 40% 2024-09-29 2024-10-03 Trump 58% Harris 42% 2024-10-03 2024-10-05 Trump 58% Harris 42% 2024-10-05 2024-10-08 Trump 59% Harris 41% 2024-10-08 2024-10-10 Trump 58% Harris 42% 2024-10-10 2024-10-14 Trump 61% Harris 39% 2024-10-14 2024-10-17 Trump 58% Harris 42% 2024-10-17 2024-10-22 Trump 58% Harris 42% 2024-10-22 2024-10-26 Trump 59% Harris 41% 2024-10-26 2024-10-29 Trump 56% Harris 44% 2024-10-29 2024-10-30 Trump 59% Harris 41% 2024-10-30 2024-11-01 Trump 59% Harris 41% 2024-11-01 2024-11-02 Trump 65% Harris 35% 2024-11-02 2024-11-03 Trump 60% Harris 40% 2024-11-03 2024-11-04 Trump 58% Harris 42% 2024-11-04 2024-11-05 Trump 58% Harris 42% 2024-11-05 2024-11-06 Trump 87% Harris 13% 2024-11-06

Recent electoral history | Arizona



2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Proj. DEM 44.4% 45.1% 44.6% 45.1% 49.4% 47% ± 4% REP 54.9% 53.6% 53.7% 48.7% 49.1% 52% ± 4% RFK 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%