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Pennsylvania, 19 Electoral Votes


(Winner-take-all)
Latest update: October 3, 2024
Toss up
Pennsylvania 49% ± 5% 48% ± 5% Harris 2020 50.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 3, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Pennsylvania 60%▲ 40%▼ <1% RFKOdds of winning | October 3, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Pennsylvania

Trump 48% ± 5% Harris 49% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Pennsylvania 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-07-01 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 Election 2024 Biden drops out Trump Harris October 3, 2024 2024-06-11 Harris 48% Trump 48% 2024-06-11 2024-06-13 Trump 48% Harris 47% 2024-06-13 2024-06-15 Trump 48% Harris 47% 2024-06-15 2024-06-17 Trump 48% Harris 47% 2024-06-17 2024-06-19 Trump 48% Harris 47% 2024-06-19 2024-06-21 Trump 48% Harris 47% 2024-06-21 2024-06-23 Trump 48% Harris 47% 2024-06-23 2024-06-25 Trump 48% Harris 47% 2024-06-25 2024-06-27 Trump 48% Harris 47% 2024-06-27 2024-06-29 Trump 48% Harris 47% 2024-06-29 2024-07-01 Trump 48% Harris 47% 2024-07-01 2024-07-03 Trump 48% Harris 47% 2024-07-03 2024-07-05 Trump 49% Harris 46% 2024-07-05 2024-07-07 Trump 49% Harris 46% 2024-07-07 2024-07-09 Trump 49% Harris 46% 2024-07-09 2024-07-11 Trump 49% Harris 46% 2024-07-11 2024-07-13 Trump 49% Harris 46% 2024-07-13 2024-07-15 Trump 49% Harris 46% 2024-07-15 2024-07-17 Trump 48% Harris 46% 2024-07-17 2024-07-19 Trump 48% Harris 46% 2024-07-19 2024-07-23 Trump 48% Harris 47% 2024-07-23 2024-07-25 Trump 48% Harris 46% 2024-07-25 2024-07-27 Trump 48% Harris 46% 2024-07-27 2024-07-29 Trump 48% Harris 46% 2024-07-29 2024-07-31 Trump 48% Harris 47% 2024-07-31 2024-08-02 Trump 47% Harris 47% 2024-08-02 2024-08-04 Harris 47% Trump 47% 2024-08-04 2024-08-06 Harris 48% Trump 47% 2024-08-06 2024-08-08 Harris 47% Trump 47% 2024-08-08 2024-08-10 Harris 48% Trump 46% 2024-08-10 2024-08-12 Harris 48% Trump 46% 2024-08-12 2024-08-14 Harris 48% Trump 46% 2024-08-14 2024-08-16 Harris 48% Trump 46% 2024-08-16 2024-08-18 Harris 48% Trump 46% 2024-08-18 2024-08-20 Harris 48% Trump 47% 2024-08-20 2024-08-22 Harris 48% Trump 47% 2024-08-22 2024-08-24 Harris 49% Trump 48% 2024-08-24 2024-08-26 Harris 48% Trump 48% 2024-08-26 2024-08-28 Harris 48% Trump 48% 2024-08-28 2024-08-30 Harris 48% Trump 48% 2024-08-30 2024-09-01 Harris 48% Trump 48% 2024-09-01 2024-09-03 Harris 49% Trump 47% 2024-09-03 2024-09-05 Harris 49% Trump 48% 2024-09-05 2024-09-09 Trump 48% Harris 48% 2024-09-09 2024-09-11 Trump 48% Harris 48% 2024-09-11 2024-09-13 Harris 48% Trump 48% 2024-09-13 2024-09-15 Harris 48% Trump 48% 2024-09-15 2024-09-17 Harris 48% Trump 48% 2024-09-17 2024-09-19 Harris 49% Trump 48% 2024-09-19 2024-09-23 Harris 49% Trump 48% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 Harris 49% Trump 48% 2024-09-25 2024-09-27 Harris 49% Trump 48% 2024-09-27 2024-09-29 Harris 49% Trump 48% 2024-09-29 2024-10-03 Harris 49% Trump 48% 2024-10-03

Odds of winning | Pennsylvania

Trump 40% Harris 60% Odds of winning the Electoral College 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-07-01 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 Election 2024 Biden drops out Trump Harris October 3, 2024 2024-06-11 Harris 50% Trump 50% 2024-06-11 2024-06-13 Trump 57% Harris 43% 2024-06-13 2024-06-15 Trump 58% Harris 42% 2024-06-15 2024-06-17 Trump 59% Harris 41% 2024-06-17 2024-06-19 Trump 54% Harris 46% 2024-06-19 2024-06-21 Trump 55% Harris 45% 2024-06-21 2024-06-23 Trump 60% Harris 40% 2024-06-23 2024-06-25 Trump 61% Harris 39% 2024-06-25 2024-06-27 Trump 61% Harris 39% 2024-06-27 2024-06-29 Trump 62% Harris 38% 2024-06-29 2024-07-01 Trump 63% Harris 37% 2024-07-01 2024-07-03 Trump 63% Harris 37% 2024-07-03 2024-07-05 Trump 66% Harris 34% 2024-07-05 2024-07-07 Trump 66% Harris 34% 2024-07-07 2024-07-09 Trump 66% Harris 34% 2024-07-09 2024-07-11 Trump 67% Harris 33% 2024-07-11 2024-07-13 Trump 68% Harris 32% 2024-07-13 2024-07-15 Trump 67% Harris 33% 2024-07-15 2024-07-17 Trump 64% Harris 36% 2024-07-17 2024-07-19 Trump 64% Harris 36% 2024-07-19 2024-07-23 Trump 60% Harris 40% 2024-07-23 2024-07-25 Trump 64% Harris 36% 2024-07-25 2024-07-27 Trump 63% Harris 37% 2024-07-27 2024-07-29 Trump 61% Harris 39% 2024-07-29 2024-07-31 Trump 58% Harris 42% 2024-07-31 2024-08-02 Trump 51% Harris 49% 2024-08-02 2024-08-04 Harris 51% Trump 49% 2024-08-04 2024-08-06 Harris 57% Trump 43% 2024-08-06 2024-08-08 Harris 55% Trump 45% 2024-08-08 2024-08-10 Harris 60% Trump 40% 2024-08-10 2024-08-12 Harris 66% Trump 34% 2024-08-12 2024-08-14 Harris 66% Trump 34% 2024-08-14 2024-08-16 Harris 63% Trump 37% 2024-08-16 2024-08-18 Harris 63% Trump 37% 2024-08-18 2024-08-20 Harris 58% Trump 42% 2024-08-20 2024-08-22 Harris 58% Trump 42% 2024-08-22 2024-08-24 Harris 55% Trump 45% 2024-08-24 2024-08-26 Harris 52% Trump 48% 2024-08-26 2024-08-28 Harris 51% Trump 49% 2024-08-28 2024-08-30 Harris 52% Trump 48% 2024-08-30 2024-09-01 Harris 56% Trump 44% 2024-09-01 2024-09-03 Harris 58% Trump 42% 2024-09-03 2024-09-05 Harris 55% Trump 45% 2024-09-05 2024-09-09 Trump 50% Harris 50% 2024-09-09 2024-09-11 Trump 50% Harris 50% 2024-09-11 2024-09-13 Harris 51% Trump 49% 2024-09-13 2024-09-15 Harris 51% Trump 49% 2024-09-15 2024-09-17 Harris 51% Trump 49% 2024-09-17 2024-09-19 Harris 56% Trump 44% 2024-09-19 2024-09-23 Harris 61% Trump 39% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 Harris 59% Trump 41% 2024-09-25 2024-09-27 Harris 60% Trump 40% 2024-09-27 2024-09-29 Harris 58% Trump 42% 2024-09-29 2024-10-03 Harris 60% Trump 40% 2024-10-03

Recent electoral history | Pennsylvania



2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Proj. DEM 50.9% 54.5% 52.1% 47.9% 50.0% 49% ± 5% REP 48.4% 44.2% 46.7% 48.6% 48.8% 48% ± 5% RFK 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 1%