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Recent electoral history | Fredericton—York


2020 2024 Projection PC 46% ± 7% 42.1% 43.8% LIB 32% ± 6% 10.1% 31.0% GRN 21% ± 6% 23.9% 20.5% NDP 2% ± 1% 0.8% 1.6% PANB 0% ± 0% 22.8% 3.1%

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338Canada Fredericton—York projection

Latest update: December 20, 2025

Fredericton—York 38% 53% 46% ± 7% PC 26% 38% 32% ± 6% LIB 15% 26% 21% ± 6% GRN PC 2024 43.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Fredericton—York 98% PC 2% LIB <1% GRN Odds of winning | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Fredericton—York

LIB 32% ± 6% PC 46% ± 7% GRN 21% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Fredericton—York 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 LIB PC GRN December 20, 2025 2025-10-25 PC 45% LIB 32% GRN 21% 2025-10-25 2025-12-20 PC 46% LIB 32% GRN 21% 2025-12-20

Odds of winning | Fredericton—York

LIB 2% PC 98% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 LIB PC NDP December 20, 2025 2025-10-25 PC 98% LIB 2% NDP <1% 2025-10-25 2025-12-20 PC 98% LIB 2% NDP <1% 2025-12-20