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New brunswick

Oromocto—Sunbury


MLA: (New boundaries)

Latest projection: September 2, 2023
PC safe
Oromocto—Sunbury 55% ± 8%▲ 18% ± 5%▲ 16% ± 5%▼ 9% ± 3%▼ PC 2020 56.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 2, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Oromocto—Sunbury >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | September 2, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Oromocto—Sunbury

LIB 18% ± 5% PC 55% ± 8% GRN 16% ± 5% PANB 9% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Oromocto—Sunbury 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023-05-01 2023-06-01 2023-07-01 2023-08-01 2023-09-01 2023-10-01 2023-11-01 2023-12-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-02-01 2024-03-01 LIB PC GRN PANB

Odds of winning | Oromocto—Sunbury

LIB <1% PC >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-05-01 2023-06-01 2023-07-01 2023-08-01 2023-09-01 2023-10-01 2023-11-01 2023-12-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-02-01 2024-03-01 LIB PC

Recent electoral history | Oromocto—Sunbury



2020 Proj. PC 56.1% 55% ± 8% LIB 14.5% 18% ± 5% PANB 14.2% 9% ± 3% GRN 13.4% 16% ± 5% NDP 1.7% 2% ± 1%
Note: Numbers on table above are the 2020 results transposed onto new electoral map.