logo
New brunswick

Recent electoral history | Oromocto—Sunbury


2020 2024 Projection PC 53% ± 7% 56.1% 52.7% LIB 33% ± 6% 14.5% 32.8% GRN 10% ± 4% 13.4% 10.4% NDP 4% ± 2% 1.7% 4.1%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


New Brunswick flag

338Canada Oromocto—Sunbury projection

Latest update: December 20, 2025

Oromocto—Sunbury 46% 60% 53% ± 7% PC 26% 39% 33% ± 6% LIB 7% 14% 10% ± 4% GRN 2% 6% 4% ± 2% NDP PC 2024 52.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Oromocto—Sunbury >99% PC <1% LIB <1% GRN Odds of winning | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Oromocto—Sunbury

LIB 33% ± 6% PC 53% ± 7% NDP 4% ± 2% GRN 10% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Oromocto—Sunbury 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 LIB PC NDP GRN December 20, 2025 2025-10-25 PC 53% LIB 33% GRN 10% NDP 4% 2025-10-25 2025-12-20 PC 53% LIB 33% GRN 10% NDP 4% 2025-12-20

Odds of winning | Oromocto—Sunbury

LIB <1% PC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 LIB PC NDP December 20, 2025 2025-10-25 PC >99% LIB <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-25 2025-12-20 PC >99% LIB <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-20