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Recent electoral history | Saint Croix


2020 2024 Projection PC 47% ± 7% 44.8% 45.3% LIB 29% ± 6% 5.1% 28.6% GRN 20% ± 6% 15.9% 20.0% IND 2% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% NDP 1% ± 1% 1.9% 1.2% PANB 0% ± 0% 32.3% 1.4%

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338Canada Saint Croix projection

Latest update: December 20, 2025

Saint Croix 40% 54% 47% ± 7% PC 23% 36% 29% ± 6% LIB 14% 26% 20% ± 6% GRN PC 2024 45.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saint Croix >99% PC <1% LIB <1% GRN Odds of winning | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Saint Croix

LIB 29% ± 6% PC 47% ± 7% GRN 20% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Saint Croix 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 LIB PC GRN December 20, 2025 2025-10-25 PC 47% LIB 29% GRN 21% 2025-10-25 2025-12-20 PC 47% LIB 29% GRN 20% 2025-12-20

Odds of winning | Saint Croix

LIB <1% PC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 LIB PC NDP December 20, 2025 2025-10-25 PC >99% LIB <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-25 2025-12-20 PC >99% LIB <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-20