logo
New brunswick

Recent electoral history | Carleton—Victoria


2020 2024 Projection PC 63% ± 7% 45.0% 62.3% LIB 28% ± 6% 38.0% 28.0% GRN 6% ± 3% 5.6% 5.9% IND 3% ± 2% 0.0% 0.0%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


New Brunswick flag

338Canada Carleton—Victoria projection

Latest update: December 20, 2025

Carleton—Victoria 56% 70% 63% ± 7% PC 22% 34% 28% ± 6% LIB 3% 8% 6% ± 3% GRN PC 2024 62.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Carleton—Victoria >99% PC <1% LIB <1% GRN Odds of winning | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Carleton—Victoria

LIB 28% ± 6% PC 63% ± 7% GRN 6% ± 3% IND 3% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Carleton—Victoria 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 LIB PC GRN IND December 20, 2025 2025-10-25 PC 63% LIB 28% GRN 6% 2025-10-25 2025-12-20 PC 63% LIB 28% GRN 6% 2025-12-20

Odds of winning | Carleton—Victoria

LIB <1% PC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 LIB PC NDP December 20, 2025 2025-10-25 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2025-10-25 2025-12-20 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2025-12-20