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British columbia

BC Conservative Party





Last update: March 26, 2024

LeaderJohn Rustad
Popular vote in 20201.9%
Current vote projection25.3% ± 5.2%
Current number of MP's0
Current seat projection19 [0-34]

Vote projection | March 26, 2024

13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 20.0% 25.3% ± 5.2% Max. 30.5% Probabilities % BCC

Seat projection | March 26, 2024

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 0 2020 0 seats 19 Max. 34 Majority 47 seats Probabilities % BCC

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | BC Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Peace River South BCC likely 98%
2. Peace River North BCC likely 97%
3. Vernon-Lumby BCC likely 90%
4. West Kelowna-Peachland BCC leaning 85%
5. Salmon Arm-Shuswap BCC leaning 79%
6. Nechako Lakes BCC leaning 78%
7. Abbotsford West BCC leaning 78%
8. Columbia River-Revelstoke BCC leaning 76%
9. Kamloops-North Thompson Toss up 67%
10. Chilliwack North Toss up 66%
11. Prince George-Valemount Toss up 64%
12. Cariboo-Chilcotin Toss up 62%
13. Prince George-North Cariboo Toss up 55%
14. Kelowna-Mission Toss up 55%
15. Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream Toss up 54%
16. Kelowna Centre Toss up 54%
17. Kootenay-Rockies Toss up 54%
18. Langley-Abbotsford Toss up 50%
19. Penticton-Summerland Toss up 49%
20. Richmond-Queensborough Toss up 49%
21. Langley-Walnut Grove Toss up 46%
22. Langley-Willowbrook Toss up 40%
23. Prince George-Mackenzie Toss up 37%
24. Abbotsford-Mission Toss up 37%
25. Boundary-Similkameen Toss up 36%
26. Abbotsford South Toss up 27%
27. Surrey South Toss up 21%
28. Delta South BCU leaning 17%
29. Surrey-White Rock NDP leaning 14%
30. Vancouver-Quilchena BCU leaning 12%
31. Skeena NDP leaning 11%
32. Kamloops Centre NDP leaning 11%
33. Chilliwack-Cultus Lake NDP likely 10%
34. West Vancouver-Capilano BCU leaning 10%
35. North Island NDP likely 10%
36. Vancouver-Yaletown NDP leaning 6%
37. Richmond-Bridgeport NDP leaning 4%
38. Vancouver-Langara NDP likely 4%
39. Ladysmith-Oceanside NDP likely 3%
40. Richmond Centre NDP likely 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Peace River South BCC likely
2. Peace River North BCC likely
3. Vernon-Lumby BCC likely
4. West Kelowna-Peachland BCC leaning
5. Salmon Arm-Shuswap BCC leaning
6. Nechako Lakes BCC leaning
7. Abbotsford West BCC leaning
8. Columbia River-Revelstoke BCC leaning
9. Kamloops-North Thompson Toss up
10. Chilliwack North Toss up
11. Prince George-Valemount Toss up
12. Cariboo-Chilcotin Toss up
13. Prince George-North Cariboo Toss up
14. Kelowna-Mission Toss up
15. Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream Toss up
16. Kelowna Centre Toss up
17. Kootenay-Rockies Toss up
18. Langley-Abbotsford Toss up
19. Penticton-Summerland Toss up
20. Richmond-Queensborough Toss up
21. Langley-Walnut Grove Toss up
22. Langley-Willowbrook Toss up
23. Prince George-Mackenzie Toss up
24. Abbotsford-Mission Toss up
25. Boundary-Similkameen Toss up
26. Abbotsford South Toss up
27. Surrey South Toss up
28. Delta South BCU leaning
29. Surrey-White Rock NDP leaning
30. Vancouver-Quilchena BCU leaning
31. Skeena NDP leaning
32. Kamloops Centre NDP leaning
33. Chilliwack-Cultus Lake NDP likely
34. West Vancouver-Capilano BCU leaning
35. North Island NDP likely
36. Vancouver-Yaletown NDP leaning
37. Richmond-Bridgeport NDP leaning
38. Vancouver-Langara NDP likely
39. Ladysmith-Oceanside NDP likely
40. Richmond Centre NDP likely