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Canada

Welcome to 338Canada!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Politico and L'actualité magazine, as well as a regular political contributor for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a new political podcast The Numbers with Éric Grenier.

Please subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter here, and enjoy the website!


ON 88 20 12 1 QC 33 30 14 1 BC 25 13 3 1 AB 32 2 MB 7 4 3 SK 14 NS 8 2 1 NB 6 4 NL 5 1 1 PEI 4 YK NWT NU 338Canada federal projections Click on map to see projection details Updated on December 3, 2023

ON QC BC AB MB SK NS NB NL PEI YK NWT NU 338Canada provincial projections Click on a province to see projection details 83 30 8 2 1 57 27 19 15 7 75 6 5 1 46 41 34 22 1 37 24 41 8 5 1 26 19 4 18 16 4 2

Latest 338Canada updates


Click on any chart to access projection details

Quebec

Updated December 7 2023
PQ 31% ± 4%▲ CAQ 25% ± 4%▼ QS 16% ± 3%▲ LIB 15% ± 2% QCP 11% ± 2%▼ Projections | Polls | Districts

British Columbia

Updated December 5, 2023
NDP 45% ± 6%▼ BCC 23% ± 5%▲ BCU 19% ± 4%▼ BCG 11% ± 2%▼ Projections | Polls | Districts

Canada (federal)

Updated December 3, 2023
CPC 40% ± 4%▼ LPC 25% ± 3%▼ NDP 20% ± 3%▲ BQ 7% ± 1% GPC 5% ± 1% Projections | Polls | Districts

Ontario

Updated December 1, 2023
PCPO 40% ± 4%▲ OLP 24% ± 3%▼ NDP 24% ± 3%▼ GPO 7% ± 2% Projections | Polls | Districts

Alberta

Updated November 9, 2023
UCP 51% ± 5%▼ NDP 44% ± 5%▲ ABP 1% ± 1% GPA 1% ± 1% Projections | Polls | Districts

Saskatchewan

Updated October 21, 2023
SKP 48% ± 6%▲ NDP 40% ± 6%▲ SUP 5% ± 2%▼ PC 3% ± 3% Projections | Polls | Districts

Newfoundland & Labrador

Updated October 17, 2023
LIB 40% ± 7%▼ PC 37% ± 7%▲ NDP 19% ± 5%▼ Projections | Polls | Districts

Manitoba

Updated October 7, 2023
NDP 46% ± 1%▼ PC 42% ± 1% LIB 11% ± 0%▲ GRN 1% ± 0% Projections | Polls | Districts

New Brunswick

Updated September 2, 2023
LIB 38% ± 5%▲ PC 38% ± 5%▲ GRN 17% ± 4%▼ PANB 6% ± 1%▼ NDP 2% ± 1%▲ Projections | Polls | Districts

Nova Scotia

Updated September 2, 2023
PC 46% ± 3% NDP 25% ± 3% LIB 25% ± 3%▼ GRN 3% ± 1% Projections | Polls | Districts

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