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About this Abacus Data federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Abacus Data in November 2026, with a middle field date of November 2, 2026. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=1,926 Canadian respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error for an online sample is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would yield a margin of error [moe] of ±2.2%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (October 2026), the Liberal Party loses three points from 48% to 45%, the Conservative Party climbs two points from 32% to 34% (variation similar to moe), and the New Democratic Party remains stable at 9%.

You can read more information on this poll here.


Back to all federal polls
Canada 45% ▼3 LPC 34% ▲2 CPC 9% NDP 8% ▲2 BQ 3% GPC 2% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-11-02 338Canada.com
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221 LPC 83 CPC 28 BQ 10 NDP 1 GPC 172 seats NL 5 2 PEI 4 NS 11 NB 7 3 QC 40 28 9 1 ON 107 15 MB 7 5 2 SK 9 5 AB 32 4 1 BC 28 8 6 1 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Abacus Data federal poll November 2, 2026 🍁
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Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Abacus Data




Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 52% ▼8 LPC 31% ▲3 CPC 13% ▲6 NDP 2% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-11-02 338Canada.com
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Quebec 39% ▼8 LPC 34% ▲8 BQ 20% ▲1 CPC 4% ▼1 NDP 2% ▲2 PPC 1% GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-11-02 338Canada.com
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Ontario 52% ▲1 LPC 34% ▲1 CPC 8% ▼1 NDP 3% GPC 2% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-11-02 338Canada.com
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Manitoba/Saskatchewan 42% ▼3 CPC 39% ▼6 LPC 14% ▲6 NDP 3% ▲2 GPC 2% ▲2 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-11-02 338Canada.com
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Alberta 56% ▲5 CPC 30% ▼6 LPC 8% ▼2 NDP 4% ▲3 PPC 2% GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-11-02 338Canada.com
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British Columbia 45% ▼4 LPC 35% ▲4 CPC 15% ▲1 NDP 5% ▼1 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-11-02 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by gender

Female voters 44% ▼3 LPC 33% ▲3 CPC 11% NDP 8% ▲2 BQ 3% ▼1 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-11-02 338Canada.com
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Male voters 46% ▼4 LPC 34% CPC 7% NDP 2% GPC 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-11-02 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 37% ▲11 CPC 34% ▼11 LPC 15% ▼3 NDP 6% ▼1 GPC 5% ▲2 BQ 3% ▲2 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-11-02 338Canada.com
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30-44 years old 37% ▼7 CPC 34% ▼2 LPC 15% ▲4 NDP 8% ▲3 BQ 4% ▲1 GPC 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-11-02 338Canada.com
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45-59 years old 45% ▼1 LPC 37% ▲2 CPC 9% ▲2 BQ 6% ▼1 NDP 2% ▲1 PPC 1% ▼1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-11-02 338Canada.com
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60+ years old 56% ▼3 LPC 29% ▲4 CPC 8% ▲1 BQ 4% ▼1 NDP 1% GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-11-02 338Canada.com
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Government approval 57% ▼2 Approve 27% ▲1 Disapprove 16% ▲1 Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-11-02 338Canada.com
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Abacus Data Government approval tracker 57% 27%2026-11-02 59% 26%2026-10-19 57% 29%2026-10-08 60% 25%2026-09-21 59% 27%2026-09-07 56% 29%2026-08-24 52% 31%2026-08-10 52% 32%2026-07-26 52% 32%2026-07-13 54% 31%2026-06-29 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove
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Impression / favourability of Mark Carney 53% ▼3 Positive / favourable 28% ▲1 Negative / unfavourable 19% ▲2 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-11-02 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Mark Carney 53% 28%2026-11-02 56% 27%2026-10-19 55% 29%2026-10-08 56% 25%2026-09-21 54% 27%2026-09-07 53% 28%2026-08-24 51% 31%2026-08-10 49% 32%2026-07-26 50% 31%2026-07-13 50% 31%2026-06-29 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Pierre Poilievre 46% ▲1 Negative / unfavourable 35% ▼2 Positive / favourable 19% ▲1 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-11-02 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Pierre Poilievre 35% 46%2026-11-02 37% 45%2026-10-19 37% 44%2026-10-08 34% 45%2026-09-21 34% 47%2026-09-07 35% 46%2026-08-24 35% 46%2026-08-10 37% 43%2026-07-26 37% 44%2026-07-13 38% 43%2026-06-29 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Avi Lewis 58% ▲2 Neutral / Unsure 25% ▼2 Negative / unfavourable 17% Positive / favourable Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-11-02 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Avi Lewis 17% 25%2026-11-02 17% 27%2026-10-19 18% 29%2026-10-08 18% 26%2026-09-21 16% 27%2026-09-07 17% 26%2026-08-24 16% 26%2026-08-10 16% 28%2026-07-26 16% 27%2026-07-13 17% 27%2026-06-29 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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