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About this Abacus Data federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Abacus Data in October 2026, with a middle field date of October 19, 2026. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=1,500 Canadian respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error for an online sample is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would yield a margin of error [moe] of ±2.5%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (October 2026), the Liberal Party climbs two points from 46% to 48% (variation similar to moe), the Conservative Party loses two points from 34% to 32% (variation similar to moe), and the New Democratic Party remains stable at 9%.

You can read more information on this poll here.


Back to all federal polls
Canada 48% ▲2 LPC 32% ▼2 CPC 9% NDP 6% ▼1 BQ 3% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-10-19 338Canada.com
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253 LPC 67 CPC 16 BQ 5 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats NL 7 PEI 4 NS 11 NB 9 1 QC 53 16 9 ON 106 14 1 1 MB 8 6 SK 9 5 AB 23 12 2 BC 35 5 2 1 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Abacus Data federal poll October 19, 2026 🍁
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Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Abacus Data




Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 60% ▲6 LPC 28% ▼7 CPC 7% ▼2 NDP 4% ▲2 GPC 1% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-10-19 338Canada.com
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Quebec 47% ▲3 LPC 26% ▼5 BQ 19% ▲1 CPC 5% ▲2 NDP 1% ▼1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-10-19 338Canada.com
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Ontario 51% ▲1 LPC 33% ▼2 CPC 9% ▼1 NDP 3% ▲1 GPC 3% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-10-19 338Canada.com
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Manitoba/Saskatchewan 45% ▲4 LPC 45% ▲3 CPC 8% ▼4 NDP 1% ▼3 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-10-19 338Canada.com
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Alberta 51% ▼1 CPC 36% ▼1 LPC 10% ▲1 NDP 2% ▲1 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-10-19 338Canada.com
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British Columbia 49% ▲7 LPC 31% ▼6 CPC 14% NDP 6% ▲1 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-10-19 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by gender

Female voters 47% LPC 30% CPC 11% NDP 6% BQ 4% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-10-19 338Canada.com
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Male voters 50% LPC 34% CPC 7% NDP 6% BQ 2% GPC 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-10-19 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 45% LPC 26% CPC 18% NDP 7% GPC 3% BQ 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-10-19 338Canada.com
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30-44 years old 44% CPC 36% LPC 11% NDP 5% BQ 3% GPC 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-10-19 338Canada.com
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45-59 years old 46% LPC 35% CPC 7% BQ 7% NDP 2% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-10-19 338Canada.com
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60+ years old 59% LPC 25% CPC 7% BQ 5% NDP 2% PPC 1% GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-10-19 338Canada.com
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Government approval 59% ▲2 Approve 26% ▼3 Disapprove 15% ▲1 Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-10-19 338Canada.com
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Abacus Data Government approval tracker 59% 26%2026-10-19 57% 29%2026-10-08 60% 25%2026-09-21 59% 27%2026-09-07 56% 29%2026-08-24 52% 31%2026-08-10 52% 32%2026-07-26 52% 32%2026-07-13 54% 31%2026-06-29 55% 30%2026-06-15 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove
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Impression / favourability of Mark Carney 56% ▲1 Positive / favourable 27% ▼2 Negative / unfavourable 17% ▲1 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-10-19 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Mark Carney 56% 27%2026-10-19 55% 29%2026-10-08 56% 25%2026-09-21 54% 27%2026-09-07 53% 28%2026-08-24 51% 31%2026-08-10 49% 32%2026-07-26 50% 31%2026-07-13 50% 31%2026-06-29 51% 30%2026-06-15 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Pierre Poilievre 45% ▲1 Negative / unfavourable 37% Positive / favourable 18% ▼1 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-10-19 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Pierre Poilievre 37% 45%2026-10-19 37% 44%2026-10-08 34% 45%2026-09-21 34% 47%2026-09-07 35% 46%2026-08-24 35% 46%2026-08-10 37% 43%2026-07-26 37% 44%2026-07-13 38% 43%2026-06-29 38% 44%2026-06-15 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Avi Lewis 56% ▲3 Neutral / Unsure 27% ▼2 Negative / unfavourable 17% ▼1 Positive / favourable Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-10-19 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Avi Lewis 17% 27%2026-10-19 18% 29%2026-10-08 18% 26%2026-09-21 16% 27%2026-09-07 17% 26%2026-08-24 16% 26%2026-08-10 16% 28%2026-07-26 16% 27%2026-07-13 17% 27%2026-06-29 18% 26%2026-06-15 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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