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About this Abacus Data federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Abacus Data in September 2026, with a middle field date of September 21, 2026. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=2,744 Canadian respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error for an online sample is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would yield a margin of error [moe] of ±1.9%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (September 2026), the Liberal Party is down one point (variation similar to moe), the Conservative Party is up one point (variation similar to moe), and the New Democratic Party is up one point (variation similar to moe).

You can read more information on this poll here.


Back to all federal polls
Canada 46% ▼1 LPC 34% ▲1 CPC 9% ▲1 NDP 7% BQ 2% ▼1 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-21 338Canada.com
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224 LPC 85 CPC 24 BQ 8 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats NL 5 2 PEI 4 NS 11 NB 7 3 QC 44 24 9 1 ON 103 16 2 1 MB 8 5 1 SK 9 5 AB 29 7 1 BC 27 12 3 1 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Abacus Data federal poll September 21, 2026 🍁
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Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Abacus Data




Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 53% ▼7 LPC 32% ▲5 CPC 13% ▲7 NDP 2% ▼2 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-21 338Canada.com
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Quebec 44% ▼4 LPC 31% ▲1 BQ 20% ▲6 CPC 3% NDP 2% ▼1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-21 338Canada.com
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Ontario 51% LPC 34% ▼1 CPC 9% ▲1 NDP 3% GPC 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-21 338Canada.com
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Manitoba/Saskatchewan 44% ▲6 LPC 41% ▼5 CPC 10% ▼2 NDP 3% ▲1 GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-21 338Canada.com
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Alberta 54% ▼11 CPC 34% ▲10 LPC 10% NDP 1% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-21 338Canada.com
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British Columbia 45% ▼5 LPC 37% ▲5 CPC 12% ▼1 NDP 5% GPC 1% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-21 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by gender

Female voters 48% ▼1 LPC 32% ▲3 CPC 10% ▼1 NDP 7% ▲1 BQ 3% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-21 338Canada.com
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Male voters 45% LPC 36% ▼2 CPC 8% ▲2 NDP 7% BQ 2% ▼1 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-21 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 42% ▲12 CPC 32% ▼12 LPC 15% NDP 7% ▲1 BQ 3% ▼1 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-21 338Canada.com
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30-44 years old 39% ▼4 CPC 36% ▲2 LPC 14% ▲2 NDP 5% ▲1 BQ 3% ▼1 GPC 2% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-21 338Canada.com
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45-59 years old 47% ▲2 LPC 35% CPC 8% ▲1 BQ 6% ▼2 NDP 3% ▲1 GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-21 338Canada.com
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60+ years old 59% ▲1 LPC 26% ▼2 CPC 8% BQ 4% ▲1 NDP 1% ▼1 GPC 1% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-21 338Canada.com
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Government approval 60% ▲1 Approve 25% ▼2 Disapprove 15% ▲1 Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-21 338Canada.com
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Abacus Data Government approval tracker 60% 25%2026-09-21 59% 27%2026-09-07 56% 29%2026-08-24 52% 31%2026-08-10 52% 32%2026-07-26 52% 32%2026-07-13 54% 31%2026-06-29 55% 30%2026-06-15 52% 31%2026-05-31 57% 28%2026-05-17 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove
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Impression / favourability of Mark Carney 56% ▲2 Positive / favourable 25% ▼2 Negative / unfavourable 19% Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-21 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Mark Carney 56% 25%2026-09-21 54% 27%2026-09-07 53% 28%2026-08-24 51% 31%2026-08-10 49% 32%2026-07-26 50% 31%2026-07-13 50% 31%2026-06-29 51% 30%2026-06-15 51% 30%2026-05-31 56% 26%2026-05-17 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Pierre Poilievre 45% ▼2 Negative / unfavourable 34% Positive / favourable 21% ▲2 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-21 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Pierre Poilievre 34% 45%2026-09-21 34% 47%2026-09-07 35% 46%2026-08-24 35% 46%2026-08-10 37% 43%2026-07-26 37% 44%2026-07-13 38% 43%2026-06-29 38% 44%2026-06-15 37% 45%2026-05-31 38% 44%2026-05-17 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Avi Lewis 56% ▼1 Neutral / Unsure 26% ▼1 Negative / unfavourable 18% ▲2 Positive / favourable Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-21 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Avi Lewis 18% 26%2026-09-21 16% 27%2026-09-07 17% 26%2026-08-24 16% 26%2026-08-10 16% 28%2026-07-26 16% 27%2026-07-13 17% 27%2026-06-29 18% 26%2026-06-15 17% 26%2026-05-31 17% 26%2026-05-17 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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