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About this Abacus Data federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Abacus Data in September 2026, with a middle field date of September 7, 2026. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=1,479 Canadian respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error for an online sample is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would yield a margin of error [moe] of ±2.5%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (August 2026), the Liberal Party climbs two points from 45% to 47% (variation similar to moe), the Conservative Party loses two points from 35% to 33% (variation similar to moe), and the New Democratic Party is down one point (variation smaller than moe).

You can read more information on this poll here.


Back to all federal polls
Canada 47% ▲2 LPC 33% ▼2 CPC 8% ▼1 NDP 7% BQ 3% ▲1 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-07 338Canada.com
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233 LPC 80 CPC 21 BQ 7 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats NL 7 PEI 4 NS 11 NB 9 1 QC 51 21 6 ON 102 17 2 1 MB 7 5 2 SK 10 4 AB 36 1 BC 35 5 2 1 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Abacus Data federal poll September 7, 2026 🍁
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Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Abacus Data




Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 60% ▲2 LPC 27% ▼5 CPC 6% ▼4 NDP 4% ▲4 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-07 338Canada.com
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Quebec 48% ▲3 LPC 30% ▼4 BQ 14% ▼2 CPC 3% NDP 3% ▲1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-07 338Canada.com
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Ontario 51% ▲2 LPC 35% ▼1 CPC 8% ▼1 NDP 3% GPC 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-07 338Canada.com
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Manitoba/Saskatchewan 46% ▼2 CPC 38% ▲2 LPC 12% ▼1 NDP 2% ▲1 GPC 2% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-07 338Canada.com
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Alberta 65% ▲4 CPC 24% ▼2 LPC 10% NDP 2% ▲1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-07 338Canada.com
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British Columbia 50% ▲5 LPC 32% ▼5 CPC 13% ▼1 NDP 5% ▲2 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-07 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by gender

Female voters 49% ▲3 LPC 29% ▼4 CPC 11% NDP 6% ▼1 BQ 3% ▲1 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-07 338Canada.com
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Male voters 45% ▲1 LPC 38% ▲1 CPC 7% ▼1 BQ 6% ▼1 NDP 3% ▲1 GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-07 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 44% ▲7 LPC 30% ▼6 CPC 15% ▼2 NDP 6% ▲1 BQ 4% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-07 338Canada.com
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30-44 years old 43% ▲3 CPC 34% LPC 12% NDP 4% ▼1 BQ 4% GPC 1% ▼2 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-07 338Canada.com
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45-59 years old 45% ▲3 LPC 35% ▼2 CPC 8% ▼1 NDP 7% ▼1 BQ 2% ▲1 GPC 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-07 338Canada.com
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60+ years old 58% ▲2 LPC 28% ▼2 CPC 8% ▼1 BQ 3% NDP 2% ▲1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-07 338Canada.com
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Government approval 59% ▲3 Approve 27% ▼2 Disapprove 14% ▼1 Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-07 338Canada.com
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Abacus Data Government approval tracker 59% 27%2026-09-07 56% 29%2026-08-24 52% 31%2026-08-10 52% 32%2026-07-26 52% 32%2026-07-13 54% 31%2026-06-29 55% 30%2026-06-15 52% 31%2026-05-31 57% 28%2026-05-17 57% 28%2026-05-03 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove
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Impression / favourability of Mark Carney 54% ▲1 Positive / favourable 27% ▼1 Negative / unfavourable 19% Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-07 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Mark Carney 54% 27%2026-09-07 53% 28%2026-08-24 51% 31%2026-08-10 49% 32%2026-07-26 50% 31%2026-07-13 50% 31%2026-06-29 51% 30%2026-06-15 51% 30%2026-05-31 56% 26%2026-05-17 54% 28%2026-05-03 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Pierre Poilievre 47% ▲1 Negative / unfavourable 34% ▼1 Positive / favourable 19% Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-07 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Pierre Poilievre 34% 47%2026-09-07 35% 46%2026-08-24 35% 46%2026-08-10 37% 43%2026-07-26 37% 44%2026-07-13 38% 43%2026-06-29 38% 44%2026-06-15 37% 45%2026-05-31 38% 44%2026-05-17 35% 45%2026-05-03 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Avi Lewis 57% Neutral / Unsure 27% ▲1 Negative / unfavourable 16% ▼1 Positive / favourable Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-09-07 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Avi Lewis 16% 27%2026-09-07 17% 26%2026-08-24 16% 26%2026-08-10 16% 28%2026-07-26 16% 27%2026-07-13 17% 27%2026-06-29 18% 26%2026-06-15 17% 26%2026-05-31 17% 26%2026-05-17 18% 26%2026-05-03 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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