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About this Abacus Data federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Abacus Data in July 2026, with a middle field date of July 26, 2026. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=1,910 Canadian respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error for an online sample is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would yield a margin of error [moe] of ±2.2%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (July 2026), the Liberal Party is up one point (variation smaller than moe), the Conservative Party is up one point (variation smaller than moe), and the New Democratic Party remains stable at 9%.

You can read more information on this poll here.


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Canada 44% ▲1 LPC 38% ▲1 CPC 9% NDP 6% ▼1 BQ 3% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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184 LPC 131 CPC 18 BQ 8 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats NL 4 3 PEI 3 1 NS 6 5 NB 6 4 QC 51 18 9 ON 75 43 3 1 MB 7 6 1 SK 10 4 AB 34 2 1 BC 24 15 3 1 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Abacus Data federal poll July 26, 2026 🍁
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Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Abacus Data




Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 45% ▼7 LPC 45% ▲10 CPC 9% ▼2 NDP 1% GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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Quebec 48% ▲5 LPC 28% ▼2 BQ 20% ▼1 CPC 2% ▼1 NDP 2% ▼1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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Ontario 47% ▲1 LPC 38% ▼1 CPC 11% ▲2 NDP 3% GPC 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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Manitoba/Saskatchewan 47% ▼4 CPC 38% ▲3 LPC 8% ▼3 NDP 4% ▲3 PPC 2% ▲1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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Alberta 60% ▲5 CPC 27% ▼3 LPC 9% ▼1 NDP 6% ▲5 GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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British Columbia 43% LPC 37% CPC 13% ▼2 NDP 3% ▼1 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by gender

Female voters 43% ▲1 LPC 37% ▲2 CPC 12% ▲1 NDP 5% ▼2 BQ 2% ▼1 GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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Male voters 44% LPC 38% CPC 7% ▲1 BQ 5% ▼2 NDP 3% GPC 2% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 42% ▲4 LPC 32% ▼5 CPC 17% ▲2 NDP 5% ▼1 GPC 2% ▼1 BQ 2% ▲2 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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30-44 years old 43% ▲3 CPC 37% ▼1 LPC 11% ▼1 NDP 6% ▲1 BQ 2% ▼1 GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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45-59 years old 42% ▲3 CPC 40% LPC 8% ▼2 BQ 6% ▼1 NDP 2% GPC 2% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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60+ years old 54% ▲2 LPC 32% CPC 7% ▼1 BQ 4% ▼1 NDP 2% ▲1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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Government approval 52% Approve 32% Disapprove 16% Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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Abacus Data Government approval tracker 52% 32%2026-07-26 52% 32%2026-07-13 54% 31%2026-06-29 55% 30%2026-06-15 52% 31%2026-05-31 57% 28%2026-05-17 57% 28%2026-05-03 54% 29%2026-04-19 54% 30%2026-04-05 54% 30%2026-03-22 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove
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Impression / favourability of Mark Carney 49% ▼1 Positive / favourable 32% ▲1 Negative / unfavourable 19% Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Mark Carney 49% 32%2026-07-26 50% 31%2026-07-13 50% 31%2026-06-29 51% 30%2026-06-15 51% 30%2026-05-31 56% 26%2026-05-17 54% 28%2026-05-03 51% 29%2026-04-19 51% 29%2026-04-05 51% 30%2026-03-22 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Pierre Poilievre 43% ▼1 Negative / unfavourable 37% Positive / favourable 20% ▲1 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Pierre Poilievre 37% 43%2026-07-26 37% 44%2026-07-13 38% 43%2026-06-29 38% 44%2026-06-15 37% 45%2026-05-31 38% 44%2026-05-17 35% 45%2026-05-03 37% 44%2026-04-19 37% 44%2026-04-05 39% 43%2026-03-22 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Avi Lewis 56% ▼1 Neutral / Unsure 28% ▲1 Negative / unfavourable 16% Positive / favourable Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Avi Lewis 16% 28%2026-07-26 16% 27%2026-07-13 17% 27%2026-06-29 18% 26%2026-06-15 17% 26%2026-05-31 17% 26%2026-05-17 18% 26%2026-05-03 15% 26%2026-04-19 17% 26%2026-04-05 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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