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About this Abacus Data federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Abacus Data in July 2026, with a middle field date of July 13, 2026. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=4,205 Canadian respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error for an online sample is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would yield a margin of error [moe] of ±1.5%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (June 2026), the Liberal Party is down one point (variation similar to moe), the Conservative Party is up one point (variation similar to moe), and the New Democratic Party is up one point (variation similar to moe).

You can read more information on this poll here.


Back to all federal polls
Canada 43% ▼1 LPC 37% ▲1 CPC 9% ▲1 NDP 7% BQ 3% ▲1 GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-13 338Canada.com
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181 LPC 126 CPC 24 BQ 10 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats NL 5 2 PEI 4 NS 11 NB 7 3 QC 43 24 10 1 ON 72 46 3 1 MB 7 6 1 SK 13 1 AB 31 5 1 BC 24 14 4 1 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Abacus Data federal poll July 13, 2026 🍁
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Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Abacus Data




Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 52% ▼3 LPC 35% ▲2 CPC 11% ▲3 NDP 1% ▼1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-13 338Canada.com
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Quebec 43% ▼2 LPC 30% ▼1 BQ 21% ▲2 CPC 3% NDP 3% ▲2 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-13 338Canada.com
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Ontario 46% ▼3 LPC 39% ▲2 CPC 9% NDP 3% ▲1 GPC 2% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-13 338Canada.com
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Manitoba/Saskatchewan 51% ▲5 CPC 35% ▼7 LPC 11% ▲3 NDP 1% GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-13 338Canada.com
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Alberta 55% ▼7 CPC 30% ▲7 LPC 10% ▼1 NDP 2% ▼1 PPC 1% ▲1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-13 338Canada.com
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British Columbia 43% ▲1 LPC 37% ▼1 CPC 15% ▲3 NDP 4% ▼3 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-13 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by gender

Female voters 42% ▼4 LPC 35% ▲3 CPC 11% ▲2 NDP 7% ▼1 BQ 3% GPC 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-13 338Canada.com
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Male voters 44% ▲1 LPC 38% ▼1 CPC 7% NDP 6% BQ 3% ▲2 GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-13 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 38% ▼7 LPC 37% ▲4 CPC 15% ▲4 NDP 6% ▲2 GPC 3% ▼1 BQ Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-13 338Canada.com
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30-44 years old 40% ▼3 CPC 38% ▲3 LPC 12% ▲2 NDP 5% BQ 3% GPC 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-13 338Canada.com
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45-59 years old 40% ▼1 LPC 39% CPC 10% ▲1 BQ 7% ▼1 NDP 2% ▲1 GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-13 338Canada.com
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60+ years old 52% ▼3 LPC 32% ▲2 CPC 8% ▲1 BQ 5% ▲1 NDP 2% PPC 1% GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-13 338Canada.com
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Government approval 52% ▼2 Approve 32% ▲1 Disapprove 16% ▲1 Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-13 338Canada.com
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Abacus Data Government approval tracker 52% 32%2026-07-13 54% 31%2026-06-29 55% 30%2026-06-15 52% 31%2026-05-31 57% 28%2026-05-17 57% 28%2026-05-03 54% 29%2026-04-19 54% 30%2026-04-05 54% 30%2026-03-22 56% 28%2026-03-08 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove
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Impression / favourability of Mark Carney 50% Positive / favourable 31% Negative / unfavourable 19% Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-13 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Mark Carney 50% 31%2026-07-13 50% 31%2026-06-29 51% 30%2026-06-15 51% 30%2026-05-31 56% 26%2026-05-17 54% 28%2026-05-03 51% 29%2026-04-19 51% 29%2026-04-05 51% 30%2026-03-22 53% 28%2026-03-08 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Pierre Poilievre 44% ▲1 Negative / unfavourable 37% ▼1 Positive / favourable 19% Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-13 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Pierre Poilievre 37% 44%2026-07-13 38% 43%2026-06-29 38% 44%2026-06-15 37% 45%2026-05-31 38% 44%2026-05-17 35% 45%2026-05-03 37% 44%2026-04-19 37% 44%2026-04-05 39% 43%2026-03-22 36% 44%2026-03-08 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Avi Lewis 57% ▲1 Neutral / Unsure 27% Negative / unfavourable 16% ▼1 Positive / favourable Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-07-13 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Avi Lewis 16% 27%2026-07-13 17% 27%2026-06-29 18% 26%2026-06-15 17% 26%2026-05-31 17% 26%2026-05-17 18% 26%2026-05-03 15% 26%2026-04-19 17% 26%2026-04-05 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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