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About this Abacus Data federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Abacus Data in June 2026, with a middle field date of June 29, 2026. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=2,366 Canadian respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error for an online sample is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would yield a margin of error [moe] of ±2.0%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (June 2026), the Liberal Party is down one point (variation smaller than moe), the Conservative Party is down one point (variation smaller than moe), and the New Democratic Party is down one point (variation smaller than moe).

You can read more information on this poll here.


Back to all federal polls
Canada 44% ▼1 LPC 36% ▼1 CPC 8% ▼1 NDP 7% ▲1 BQ 2% GPC 2% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-29 338Canada.com
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196 LPC 114 CPC 24 BQ 7 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats NL 6 1 PEI 4 NS 11 NB 7 3 QC 44 24 9 1 ON 85 34 2 1 MB 8 6 SK 9 5 AB 35 1 1 BC 22 17 3 1 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Abacus Data federal poll June 29, 2026 🍁
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Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Abacus Data




Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 55% ▲3 LPC 33% ▼5 CPC 8% ▼1 NDP 2% ▲2 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-29 338Canada.com
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Quebec 45% ▼2 LPC 31% ▲6 BQ 19% ▼2 CPC 3% ▼2 NDP 1% ▼1 GPC 1% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-29 338Canada.com
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Ontario 49% ▲1 LPC 37% CPC 9% ▼1 NDP 3% ▲1 PPC 2% ▼1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-29 338Canada.com
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Manitoba/Saskatchewan 46% ▼9 CPC 42% ▲9 LPC 8% ▼2 NDP 2% PPC 1% GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-29 338Canada.com
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Alberta 62% ▲1 CPC 23% ▼4 LPC 11% ▲2 NDP 3% ▲2 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-29 338Canada.com
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British Columbia 42% ▼6 LPC 38% ▲5 CPC 12% ▼1 NDP 7% ▲4 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-29 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by gender

Female voters 46% LPC 32% ▼2 CPC 9% ▼2 NDP 8% ▲6 BQ 3% ▲1 GPC 2% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-29 338Canada.com
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Male voters 43% LPC 39% ▼1 CPC 7% NDP 6% BQ 2% ▲1 PPC 1% ▼1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-29 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 45% ▲3 LPC 33% CPC 11% ▼5 NDP 4% ▲2 BQ 4% ▼1 GPC 2% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-29 338Canada.com
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30-44 years old 43% ▲1 CPC 35% ▼2 LPC 10% ▼2 NDP 5% BQ 3% ▲1 GPC 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-29 338Canada.com
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45-59 years old 41% ▼1 LPC 39% ▼2 CPC 9% ▲2 BQ 8% ▲2 NDP 2% PPC 1% GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-29 338Canada.com
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60+ years old 55% LPC 30% ▼2 CPC 7% BQ 4% NDP 2% ▲1 PPC 1% GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-29 338Canada.com
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Government approval 54% ▼1 Approve 31% ▲1 Disapprove 15% Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-29 338Canada.com
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Abacus Data Government approval tracker 54% 31%2026-06-29 55% 30%2026-06-15 52% 31%2026-05-31 57% 28%2026-05-17 57% 28%2026-05-03 54% 29%2026-04-19 54% 30%2026-04-05 54% 30%2026-03-22 56% 28%2026-03-08 52% 29%2026-02-08 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove
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Impression / favourability of Mark Carney 50% ▼1 Positive / favourable 31% ▲1 Negative / unfavourable 19% Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-29 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Mark Carney 50% 31%2026-06-29 51% 30%2026-06-15 51% 30%2026-05-31 56% 26%2026-05-17 54% 28%2026-05-03 51% 29%2026-04-19 51% 29%2026-04-05 51% 30%2026-03-22 53% 28%2026-03-08 50% 30%2026-02-21 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Pierre Poilievre 43% ▼1 Negative / unfavourable 38% Positive / favourable 19% ▲1 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-29 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Pierre Poilievre 38% 43%2026-06-29 38% 44%2026-06-15 37% 45%2026-05-31 38% 44%2026-05-17 35% 45%2026-05-03 37% 44%2026-04-19 37% 44%2026-04-05 39% 43%2026-03-22 36% 44%2026-03-08 37% 44%2026-02-21 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Avi Lewis 56% Neutral / Unsure 27% ▲1 Negative / unfavourable 17% ▼1 Positive / favourable Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-29 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Avi Lewis 17% 27%2026-06-29 18% 26%2026-06-15 17% 26%2026-05-31 17% 26%2026-05-17 18% 26%2026-05-03 15% 26%2026-04-19 17% 26%2026-04-05 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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