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About this Abacus Data federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Abacus Data in June 2026, with a middle field date of June 15, 2026. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=3,080 Canadian respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error for an online sample is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would yield a margin of error [moe] of ±1.8%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (May 2026), the Liberal Party is up one point (variation similar to moe), the Conservative Party is up one point (variation similar to moe), and the New Democratic Party loses two points from 11% to 9%.

You can read more information on this poll here.


Back to all federal polls
Canada 45% ▲1 LPC 37% ▲1 CPC 9% ▼2 NDP 6% BQ 2% ▼1 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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205 LPC 114 CPC 15 BQ 7 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats NL 4 3 PEI 4 NS 11 NB 6 4 QC 52 15 10 1 ON 82 37 2 1 MB 7 6 1 SK 13 1 AB 35 1 1 BC 35 5 2 1 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Abacus Data federal poll June 15, 2026 🍁
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Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Abacus Data




Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 52% ▲2 LPC 38% ▼3 CPC 9% ▲1 NDP 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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Quebec 47% LPC 25% BQ 21% ▲1 CPC 5% ▲1 NDP 2% ▼1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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Ontario 48% ▲2 LPC 37% CPC 10% ▼2 NDP 3% GPC 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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Manitoba/Saskatchewan 55% ▲8 CPC 33% ▼1 LPC 10% ▼6 NDP 2% ▲1 PPC 1% ▼2 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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Alberta 61% ▲4 CPC 27% ▼6 LPC 9% NDP 1% GPC 1% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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British Columbia 48% ▲5 LPC 33% ▼3 CPC 13% ▼2 NDP 3% ▼2 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by gender

Female voters 46% ▲3 LPC 34% ▲2 CPC 11% ▼4 NDP 2% ▼3 BQ 2% ▼1 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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Male voters 43% ▼1 LPC 40% CPC 7% ▲1 NDP 6% BQ 2% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 42% ▲3 LPC 33% ▼4 CPC 16% NDP 5% ▼1 GPC 2% ▲1 BQ 1% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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30-44 years old 42% ▲3 CPC 37% ▼1 LPC 12% ▼3 NDP 5% ▲1 BQ 2% GPC 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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45-59 years old 42% ▲1 LPC 41% ▲3 CPC 7% ▼1 BQ 6% ▼4 NDP 2% ▲1 PPC 1% ▼1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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60+ years old 55% ▼2 LPC 32% ▲1 CPC 7% ▼1 BQ 4% NDP 1% ▼1 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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Government approval 55% ▲3 Approve 30% ▼1 Disapprove 15% ▼2 Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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Abacus Data Government approval tracker 55% 30%2026-06-15 52% 31%2026-05-31 57% 28%2026-05-17 57% 28%2026-05-03 54% 29%2026-04-19 54% 30%2026-04-05 54% 30%2026-03-22 56% 28%2026-03-08 52% 29%2026-02-08 54% 31%2026-01-25 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove
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Impression / favourability of Mark Carney 51% Positive / favourable 30% Negative / unfavourable 19% Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Mark Carney 51% 30%2026-06-15 51% 30%2026-05-31 56% 26%2026-05-17 54% 28%2026-05-03 51% 29%2026-04-19 51% 29%2026-04-05 51% 30%2026-03-22 53% 28%2026-03-08 50% 30%2026-02-21 51% 29%2026-02-08 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Pierre Poilievre 44% ▼1 Negative / unfavourable 38% ▲1 Positive / favourable 18% Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Pierre Poilievre 38% 44%2026-06-15 37% 45%2026-05-31 38% 44%2026-05-17 35% 45%2026-05-03 37% 44%2026-04-19 37% 44%2026-04-05 39% 43%2026-03-22 36% 44%2026-03-08 37% 44%2026-02-21 36% 43%2026-02-08 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Avi Lewis 56% ▼1 Neutral / Unsure 26% Negative / unfavourable 18% ▲1 Positive / favourable Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Avi Lewis 18% 26%2026-06-15 17% 26%2026-05-31 17% 26%2026-05-17 18% 26%2026-05-03 15% 26%2026-04-19 17% 26%2026-04-05 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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