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Canada

About this Abacus Data federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Abacus Data in February 2026, with a middle field date of February 21, 2026. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=1,500 Canadian respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error for an online sample is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would yield a margin of error [moe] of ±2.5%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (February 2026), the Liberal Party remains stable at 44%, the Conservative Party is up one point (variation smaller than moe), and the New Democratic Party is down one point (variation smaller than moe).

You can read more information on this poll here.


Back to all federal polls
Canada 44% LPC 38% ▲1 CPC 7% ▼1 NDP 6% BQ 3% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-02-21 338Canada.com

Past federal polls from Abacus Data

LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ PPC Voting intentions % 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 2025-04-26 LPC 41% CPC 39% NDP 10% BQ 6% PPC 3% GPC 1% 2025-04-26 2025-05-18 LPC 41% CPC 40% NDP 8% BQ 7% GPC 3% PPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-06-04 LPC 42% CPC 39% NDP 8% BQ 6% GPC 3% PPC 1% 2025-06-04 2025-06-18 LPC 42% CPC 39% NDP 7% BQ 6% GPC 3% PPC 1% 2025-06-18 2025-06-29 LPC 41% CPC 40% NDP 9% BQ 7% PPC 2% GPC 2% 2025-06-29 2025-07-13 LPC 43% CPC 40% NDP 7% BQ 7% GPC 3% PPC 1% 2025-07-13 2025-08-04 LPC 43% CPC 40% NDP 8% BQ 6% PPC 2% GPC 2% 2025-08-04 2025-08-17 CPC 41% LPC 39% NDP 7% BQ 7% PPC 2% GPC 2% 2025-08-17 2025-08-31 LPC 43% CPC 40% BQ 7% NDP 6% GPC 2% PPC 1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-15 CPC 40% LPC 40% NDP 8% BQ 7% GPC 3% PPC 1% 2025-09-15 2025-09-29 CPC 41% LPC 40% NDP 7% BQ 7% GPC 3% PPC 2% 2025-09-29 2025-10-12 CPC 41% LPC 40% NDP 8% BQ 7% GPC 3% PPC 1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-27 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 8% BQ 6% GPC 3% PPC 1% 2025-10-27 2025-11-06 CPC 41% LPC 40% NDP 8% BQ 7% GPC 2% PPC 1% 2025-11-06 2025-11-24 LPC 41% CPC 40% NDP 8% BQ 7% GPC 2% PPC 1% 2025-11-24 2025-11-30 CPC 41% LPC 41% NDP 7% BQ 7% GPC 2% PPC 1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 41% LPC 41% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 1% 2025-12-07 2026-01-12 CPC 40% LPC 40% NDP 8% BQ 7% GPC 3% PPC 1% 2026-01-12 2026-01-14 LPC 41% CPC 39% NDP 8% BQ 7% GPC 3% PPC 2% 2026-01-14 2026-01-25 LPC 43% CPC 39% NDP 8% BQ 6% PPC 2% GPC 2% 2026-01-25 2026-02-08 LPC 44% CPC 37% NDP 8% BQ 6% GPC 3% PPC 1% 2026-02-08 2026-02-21 LPC 44% CPC 38% NDP 7% BQ 6% GPC 3% PPC 1% 2026-02-21 March 1, 2026
Hover over and click on the coloured dots to access poll details.



Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 54% ▲2 LPC 35% ▼4 CPC 8% ▲4 NDP 1% ▼3 GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-02-21 338Canada.com
Quebec 43% ▼3 LPC 28% ▲1 BQ 22% ▲3 CPC 3% ▼3 NDP 3% ▲2 GPC 1% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-02-21 338Canada.com
Ontario 48% LPC 39% CPC 8% NDP 2% ▼2 GPC 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-02-21 338Canada.com

Manitoba/Saskatchewan 50% ▼1 CPC 38% ▲5 LPC 11% ▲1 NDP 1% ▼1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-02-21 338Canada.com
Alberta 57% ▼4 CPC 32% ▲6 LPC 7% ▼2 NDP 2% PPC 1% GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-02-21 338Canada.com
British Columbia 44% ▼1 LPC 38% ▲1 CPC 10% ▼2 NDP 6% ▲2 GPC 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-02-21 338Canada.com


Breakdown by gender

Female voters 46% LPC 35% CPC 9% NDP 6% BQ 3% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-02-21 338Canada.com
Male voters 43% LPC 40% CPC 6% BQ 6% NDP 2% GPC 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-02-21 338Canada.com


Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 41% ▼5 LPC 41% ▲5 CPC 8% ▼2 NDP 4% ▲2 BQ 4% GPC 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-02-21 338Canada.com
30-44 years old 41% ▲2 CPC 40% ▲3 LPC 8% ▼4 NDP 5% BQ 3% ▼2 GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-02-21 338Canada.com

45-59 years old 42% CPC 40% ▼1 LPC 9% ▲2 NDP 7% BQ 2% GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-02-21 338Canada.com
60+ years old 53% ▲2 LPC 29% ▼4 CPC 8% BQ 5% NDP 2% ▲1 GPC 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-02-21 338Canada.com





Impression / favourability of Mark Carney 50% ▼1 Positive / favourable 30% ▲1 Negative / unfavourable 20% Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-02-21 338Canada.com
Impression / favourability tracker, Mark Carney 50% 30%2026-02-21 51% 29%2026-02-08 53% 30%2026-01-25 46% 33%2026-01-12 45% 35%2025-12-07 45% 31%2025-11-24 45% 33%2025-11-06 46% 32%2025-10-27 46% 31%2025-10-12 45% 31%2025-09-29 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable

Impression / favourability of Pierre Poilievre 44% ▲1 Negative / unfavourable 37% ▲1 Positive / favourable 19% ▼2 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-02-21 338Canada.com
Impression / favourability tracker, Pierre Poilievre 37% 44%2026-02-21 36% 43%2026-02-08 38% 44%2026-01-25 35% 48%2026-01-14 35% 48%2026-01-12 39% 43%2025-12-07 39% 42%2025-11-24 37% 44%2025-11-06 39% 42%2025-10-27 39% 42%2025-10-12 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable



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