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About this Abacus Data federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Abacus Data in February 2026, with a middle field date of February 8, 2026. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=1,915 Canadian respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error for an online sample is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would yield a margin of error [moe] of ±2.2%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (January 2026), the Liberal Party is up one point (variation smaller than moe), the Conservative Party loses two points from 39% to 37% (variation similar to moe), and the New Democratic Party remains stable at 8%.

You can read more information on this poll here.


Back to all federal polls
Canada 44% ▲1 LPC 37% ▼2 CPC 8% NDP 6% BQ 3% ▲1 GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com
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198 LPC 120 CPC 20 BQ 4 NDP 1 GPC 172 seats NL 4 3 PEI 4 NS 10 1 NB 6 4 QC 51 20 6 1 ON 84 38 MB 7 6 1 SK 13 1 AB 35 1 1 BC 28 13 1 1 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Abacus Data federal poll February 8, 2026 🍁
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Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Abacus Data




Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 52% ▼1 LPC 39% ▲4 CPC 4% ▼5 NDP 4% ▲2 GPC 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com
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Quebec 46% ▲5 LPC 27% BQ 19% ▼5 CPC 6% ▲2 NDP 1% ▼2 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com
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Ontario 48% ▲2 LPC 39% ▼2 CPC 8% NDP 4% ▲1 GPC 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com
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Manitoba/Saskatchewan 51% ▼2 CPC 33% LPC 10% ▼2 NDP 3% ▲1 PPC 2% ▲2 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com
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Alberta 61% ▲5 CPC 26% ▼5 LPC 9% ▲1 NDP 2% ▼2 PPC 1% ▲1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com
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British Columbia 45% LPC 37% CPC 12% ▲1 NDP 4% ▼2 GPC 2% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 46% ▲3 LPC 36% ▲1 CPC 10% NDP 4% ▲1 GPC 2% ▼3 BQ 2% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com
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30-44 years old 39% ▼4 CPC 37% ▼1 LPC 12% ▲2 NDP 5% BQ 5% ▲3 GPC 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com
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45-59 years old 42% CPC 41% ▲3 LPC 7% BQ 7% ▼2 NDP 2% GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com
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60+ years old 51% ▲1 LPC 33% ▼2 CPC 8% ▲1 BQ 5% ▲1 NDP 2% ▲1 PPC 1% ▼2 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com
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Government approval 52% ▼2 Approve 29% ▼2 Disapprove 19% ▲4 Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com
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Abacus Data Government approval tracker 52% 29%2026-02-08 54% 31%2026-01-25 47% 34%2026-01-12 47% 35%2025-12-07 47% 33%2025-11-30 48% 32%2025-11-24 44% 34%2025-11-06 47% 34%2025-10-27 48% 32%2025-10-12 46% 31%2025-09-29 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove
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Impression / favourability of Mark Carney 51% ▼2 Positive / favourable 29% ▼1 Negative / unfavourable 20% ▲3 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Mark Carney 51% 29%2026-02-08 53% 30%2026-01-25 46% 33%2026-01-12 45% 35%2025-12-07 45% 31%2025-11-24 45% 33%2025-11-06 46% 32%2025-10-27 46% 31%2025-10-12 45% 31%2025-09-29 48% 30%2025-09-15 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Pierre Poilievre 43% ▼1 Negative / unfavourable 36% ▼2 Positive / favourable 21% ▲3 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Pierre Poilievre 36% 43%2026-02-08 38% 44%2026-01-25 35% 48%2026-01-14 35% 48%2026-01-12 39% 43%2025-12-07 39% 42%2025-11-24 37% 44%2025-11-06 39% 42%2025-10-27 39% 42%2025-10-12 40% 42%2025-09-29 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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