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About this Abacus Data federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Abacus Data in January 2026, with a middle field date of January 14, 2026. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=2,008 Canadian respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error for an online sample is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would yield a margin of error [moe] of ±2.2%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (January 2026), the Liberal Party is up one point (variation smaller than moe), the Conservative Party is down one point (variation smaller than moe), and the New Democratic Party remains stable at 8%.

You can read more information on this poll here.


Back to all federal polls
Canada 41% ▲1 LPC 39% ▼1 CPC 8% NDP 7% BQ 3% GPC 2% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-14 338Canada.com
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168 LPC 131 CPC 30 BQ 12 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats NL 4 3 PEI 4 NS 11 NB 6 4 QC 38 30 9 1 ON 68 52 1 1 MB 7 6 1 SK 13 1 AB 31 5 1 BC 22 13 7 1 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Abacus Data federal poll January 14, 2026 🍁
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Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Abacus Data




Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 52% ▲7 LPC 38% ▼4 CPC 6% ▼2 NDP 2% ▼1 GPC 2% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-14 338Canada.com
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Quebec 38% ▲1 LPC 32% ▲1 BQ 25% ▼1 CPC 1% ▼1 NDP 1% ▼2 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-14 338Canada.com
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Ontario 44% LPC 40% ▼3 CPC 8% NDP 4% ▲2 GPC 3% ▲2 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-14 338Canada.com
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Manitoba/Saskatchewan 50% ▼2 CPC 36% ▲2 LPC 11% NDP 2% GPC 1% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-14 338Canada.com
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Alberta 58% CPC 32% ▲6 LPC 8% ▼3 NDP 1% ▼1 GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-14 338Canada.com
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British Columbia 43% ▲2 LPC 37% CPC 14% NDP 5% GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-14 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by gender

Female voters 43% ▲1 LPC 32% ▼5 CPC 9% ▼1 NDP 8% ▲1 BQ 3% GPC 2% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-14 338Canada.com
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Male voters 45% ▲1 CPC 40% ▲2 LPC 6% NDP 5% ▼2 BQ 3% ▲1 GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-14 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 46% ▼4 CPC 34% ▲7 LPC 8% ▼6 NDP 7% ▲3 GPC 3% ▲1 BQ 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-14 338Canada.com
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30-44 years old 39% ▼2 CPC 37% ▲2 LPC 10% ▲1 NDP 6% ▼2 BQ 2% ▼1 GPC 2% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-14 338Canada.com
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45-59 years old 41% ▲2 LPC 36% ▼7 CPC 9% ▲2 BQ 9% ▲3 NDP 3% ▲1 PPC 2% GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-14 338Canada.com
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60+ years old 50% ▼2 LPC 36% ▲4 CPC 8% ▼1 BQ 4% ▼1 NDP 1% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-14 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability of Pierre Poilievre 48% Negative / unfavourable 35% Positive / favourable 17% Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-14 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Pierre Poilievre 35% 48%2026-01-14 35% 48%2026-01-12 39% 43%2025-12-07 39% 42%2025-11-24 37% 44%2025-11-06 39% 42%2025-10-27 39% 42%2025-10-12 40% 42%2025-09-29 40% 41%2025-09-15 39% 42%2025-08-31 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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