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About this Abacus Data federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Abacus Data in January 2026, with a middle field date of January 12, 2026. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=1,850 Canadian respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error for an online sample is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would yield a margin of error [moe] of ±2.3%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (December 2025), the Liberal Party is down one point (variation smaller than moe), the Conservative Party is down one point (variation smaller than moe), and the New Democratic Party is down one point (variation smaller than moe).

You can read more information on this poll here.


Back to all federal polls
Canada 40% ▼1 LPC 40% ▼1 CPC 8% ▼1 NDP 7% ▲1 BQ 3% ▲1 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com
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149 CPC 149 LPC 30 BQ 13 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats NL 4 3 PEI 3 1 NS 6 5 NB 6 4 QC 38 30 9 1 ON 61 59 1 1 MB 7 6 1 SK 13 1 AB 33 2 2 BC 21 14 7 1 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Abacus Data federal poll January 12, 2026 🍁
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Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Abacus Data




Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 45% ▼6 LPC 42% ▲6 CPC 8% ▼1 NDP 3% ▲1 GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com
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Quebec 37% LPC 31% ▲1 BQ 26% ▲1 CPC 3% ▲1 GPC 2% ▼4 NDP 1% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com
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Ontario 44% ▼1 LPC 43% ▼1 CPC 8% ▲1 NDP 2% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com
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Manitoba/Saskatchewan 52% ▲1 CPC 34% ▼4 LPC 11% ▲3 NDP 2% ▲1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com
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Alberta 58% CPC 26% ▼3 LPC 11% ▲1 NDP 2% ▲1 GPC 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com
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British Columbia 41% ▲1 LPC 37% ▼1 CPC 14% ▼1 NDP 5% GPC 2% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by gender

Female voters 42% ▲1 LPC 37% ▼2 CPC 10% NDP 7% ▲1 BQ 3% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com
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Male voters 44% ▲1 CPC 38% ▼3 LPC 7% ▲1 BQ 6% ▼1 NDP 2% GPC 2% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 50% ▲10 CPC 27% ▼12 LPC 14% ▲1 NDP 4% GPC 2% ▼1 BQ 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com
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30-44 years old 41% ▼7 CPC 35% ▲4 LPC 9% ▼2 NDP 8% ▲2 BQ 3% ▲1 GPC 1% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com
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45-59 years old 43% ▼3 CPC 39% ▲3 LPC 7% BQ 6% ▼1 NDP 2% ▼1 GPC 2% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com
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60+ years old 52% ▼1 LPC 32% ▲1 CPC 9% ▲1 BQ 5% NDP 1% ▼1 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com
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Government approval 47% Approve 34% ▼1 Disapprove 19% ▲1 Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com
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Abacus Data Government approval tracker 47% 34%2026-01-12 47% 35%2025-12-07 47% 33%2025-11-30 48% 32%2025-11-24 44% 34%2025-11-06 47% 34%2025-10-27 48% 32%2025-10-12 46% 31%2025-09-29 50% 30%2025-09-15 48% 30%2025-08-31 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove
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Impression / favourability of Mark Carney 46% ▲1 Positive / favourable 33% ▼2 Negative / unfavourable 21% ▲1 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Mark Carney 46% 33%2026-01-12 45% 35%2025-12-07 45% 31%2025-11-24 45% 33%2025-11-06 46% 32%2025-10-27 46% 31%2025-10-12 45% 31%2025-09-29 48% 30%2025-09-15 45% 32%2025-08-31 48% 30%2025-08-17 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Pierre Poilievre 48% ▲5 Negative / unfavourable 35% ▼4 Positive / favourable 17% ▼1 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Pierre Poilievre 35% 48%2026-01-12 39% 43%2025-12-07 39% 42%2025-11-24 37% 44%2025-11-06 39% 42%2025-10-27 39% 42%2025-10-12 40% 42%2025-09-29 40% 41%2025-09-15 39% 42%2025-08-31 40% 42%2025-08-17 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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