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Canada

About this Abacus Data federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Abacus Data in January 2026, with a middle field date of January 12, 2026. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=1,850 Canadian respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error for an online sample is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would yield a margin of error [moe] of ±2.3%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (December 2025), the Liberal Party is down one point (variation smaller than moe), the Conservative Party is down one point (variation smaller than moe), and the New Democratic Party is down one point (variation smaller than moe).

You can read more information on this poll here.


Back to all federal polls
Canada 40% ▼1 LPC 40% ▼1 CPC 8% ▼1 NDP 7% ▲1 BQ 3% ▲1 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com

Past federal polls from Abacus Data

LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ PPC Voting intentions % 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 2025-04-26 LPC 41% CPC 39% NDP 10% BQ 6% PPC 3% GPC 1% 2025-04-26 2025-05-18 LPC 41% CPC 40% NDP 8% BQ 7% GPC 3% PPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-06-04 LPC 42% CPC 39% NDP 8% BQ 6% GPC 3% PPC 1% 2025-06-04 2025-06-18 LPC 42% CPC 39% NDP 7% BQ 6% GPC 3% PPC 1% 2025-06-18 2025-06-29 LPC 41% CPC 40% NDP 9% BQ 7% PPC 2% GPC 2% 2025-06-29 2025-07-13 LPC 43% CPC 40% NDP 7% BQ 7% GPC 3% PPC 1% 2025-07-13 2025-08-04 LPC 43% CPC 40% NDP 8% BQ 6% PPC 2% GPC 2% 2025-08-04 2025-08-17 CPC 41% LPC 39% NDP 7% BQ 7% PPC 2% GPC 2% 2025-08-17 2025-08-31 LPC 43% CPC 40% BQ 7% NDP 6% GPC 2% PPC 1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-15 CPC 40% LPC 40% NDP 8% BQ 7% GPC 3% PPC 1% 2025-09-15 2025-09-29 CPC 41% LPC 40% NDP 7% BQ 7% GPC 3% PPC 2% 2025-09-29 2025-10-12 CPC 41% LPC 40% NDP 8% BQ 7% GPC 3% PPC 1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-27 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 8% BQ 6% GPC 3% PPC 1% 2025-10-27 2025-11-06 CPC 41% LPC 40% NDP 8% BQ 7% GPC 2% PPC 1% 2025-11-06 2025-11-24 LPC 41% CPC 40% NDP 8% BQ 7% GPC 2% PPC 1% 2025-11-24 2025-11-30 CPC 41% LPC 41% NDP 7% BQ 7% GPC 2% PPC 1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 41% LPC 41% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 1% 2025-12-07 2026-01-12 CPC 40% LPC 40% NDP 8% BQ 7% GPC 3% PPC 1% 2026-01-12 January 18, 2026
Hover over and click on the coloured dots to access poll details.



Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 45% ▼6 LPC 42% ▲6 CPC 8% ▼1 NDP 3% ▲1 GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com
Quebec 37% LPC 31% ▲1 BQ 26% ▲1 CPC 3% ▲1 GPC 2% ▼4 NDP 1% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com
Ontario 44% ▼1 LPC 43% ▼1 CPC 8% ▲1 NDP 2% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com

Manitoba/Saskatchewan 52% ▲1 CPC 34% ▼4 LPC 11% ▲3 NDP 2% ▲1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com
Alberta 58% CPC 26% ▼3 LPC 11% ▲1 NDP 2% PPC 2% ▲1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com
British Columbia 41% ▲1 LPC 37% ▼1 CPC 14% ▼1 NDP 5% GPC 2% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com


Breakdown by gender

Female voters 42% ▲1 LPC 37% ▼2 CPC 10% NDP 7% ▲1 BQ 3% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com
Male voters 44% ▲1 CPC 38% ▼3 LPC 7% ▲1 BQ 6% ▼1 NDP 2% ▲1 PPC 2% GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com


Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 50% ▲10 CPC 27% ▼12 LPC 14% ▲1 NDP 4% GPC 2% ▼1 BQ 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com
30-44 years old 41% ▼7 CPC 35% ▲4 LPC 9% ▼2 NDP 8% ▲2 BQ 3% ▲1 GPC 1% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com

45-59 years old 43% ▼3 CPC 39% ▲3 LPC 7% BQ 6% ▼1 NDP 2% ▲1 PPC 2% ▼1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com
60+ years old 52% ▼1 LPC 32% ▲1 CPC 9% ▲1 BQ 5% NDP 1% PPC 1% ▼1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com



Government approval 47% Approve 34% ▼1 Disapprove 19% ▲1 Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com
Abacus Data Government approval tracker 47% 34%2026-01-12 47% 35%2025-12-07 47% 33%2025-11-30 48% 32%2025-11-24 44% 34%2025-11-06 47% 34%2025-10-27 48% 32%2025-10-12 46% 31%2025-09-29 50% 30%2025-09-15 48% 30%2025-08-31 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove


Impression / favourability of Mark Carney 46% ▲1 Positive / favourable 33% ▼2 Negative / unfavourable 21% ▲1 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com
Impression / favourability tracker, Mark Carney 46% 33%2026-01-12 45% 35%2025-12-07 45% 31%2025-11-24 45% 33%2025-11-06 46% 32%2025-10-27 46% 31%2025-10-12 45% 31%2025-09-29 48% 30%2025-09-15 45% 32%2025-08-31 48% 30%2025-08-17 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable

Impression / favourability of Pierre Poilievre 48% ▲5 Negative / unfavourable 35% ▼4 Positive / favourable 17% ▼1 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2026-01-12 338Canada.com
Impression / favourability tracker, Pierre Poilievre 35% 48%2026-01-12 39% 43%2025-12-07 39% 42%2025-11-24 37% 44%2025-11-06 39% 42%2025-10-27 39% 42%2025-10-12 40% 42%2025-09-29 40% 41%2025-09-15 39% 42%2025-08-31 40% 42%2025-08-17 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable



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