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About this Abacus Data federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Abacus Data in December 2025, with a middle field date of December 7, 2025. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=1,500 Canadian respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error for an online sample is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would yield a margin of error [moe] of ±2.5%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (November 2025), the Liberal Party remains stable at 41%, the Conservative Party remains stable at 41%, and the New Democratic Party climbs two points from 7% to 9% (variation similar to moe).

You can read more information on this poll here.


Back to all federal polls
Canada 41% LPC 41% CPC 9% ▲2 NDP 6% ▼1 BQ 2% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-12-07 338Canada.com
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157 LPC 143 CPC 28 BQ 13 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats NL 4 3 PEI 4 NS 10 1 NB 6 4 QC 39 28 10 1 ON 61 59 1 1 MB 7 6 1 SK 12 2 AB 32 3 2 BC 19 16 7 1 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Abacus Data federal poll December 7, 2025 🍁
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Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Abacus Data




Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 51% ▲2 LPC 36% ▼6 CPC 9% ▲4 NDP 2% GPC 2% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-12-07 338Canada.com
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Quebec 37% ▼3 LPC 30% ▼1 BQ 25% ▲4 CPC 6% ▲3 NDP 2% ▲1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-12-07 338Canada.com
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Ontario 45% LPC 44% CPC 7% NDP 2% ▼1 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-12-07 338Canada.com
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Manitoba/Saskatchewan 51% ▼2 CPC 38% ▲5 LPC 8% ▼3 NDP 1% ▼2 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-12-07 338Canada.com
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Alberta 58% ▼1 CPC 29% LPC 10% ▲2 NDP 2% PPC 1% ▲1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-12-07 338Canada.com
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British Columbia 40% LPC 38% ▼2 CPC 15% ▲2 NDP 5% ▼1 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-12-07 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by gender

Female voters 41% ▼1 LPC 39% ▲3 CPC 10% ▲1 NDP 6% ▼2 BQ 3% GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-12-07 338Canada.com
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Male voters 43% ▼2 CPC 41% ▲1 LPC 7% ▲2 NDP 6% BQ 2% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-12-07 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 40% ▲1 CPC 39% LPC 13% ▲3 NDP 4% ▲2 GPC 3% ▼4 BQ 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-12-07 338Canada.com
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30-44 years old 48% ▲4 CPC 31% ▼5 LPC 11% ▲2 NDP 6% ▼1 BQ 2% ▼1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-12-07 338Canada.com
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45-59 years old 46% ▲4 CPC 36% ▼6 LPC 7% ▲2 BQ 7% NDP 3% ▲1 GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-12-07 338Canada.com
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60+ years old 53% ▲6 LPC 31% ▼6 CPC 8% BQ 5% NDP 2% ▼1 GPC 1% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-12-07 338Canada.com
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Government approval 47% Approve 35% ▲2 Disapprove 18% ▼2 Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-12-07 338Canada.com
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Abacus Data Government approval tracker 47% 35%2025-12-07 47% 33%2025-11-30 48% 32%2025-11-24 44% 34%2025-11-06 47% 34%2025-10-27 48% 32%2025-10-12 46% 31%2025-09-29 50% 30%2025-09-15 48% 30%2025-08-31 49% 30%2025-08-17 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove
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Impression / favourability of Mark Carney 45% Positive / favourable 35% ▲4 Negative / unfavourable 20% ▼4 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-12-07 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Mark Carney 45% 35%2025-12-07 45% 31%2025-11-24 45% 33%2025-11-06 46% 32%2025-10-27 46% 31%2025-10-12 45% 31%2025-09-29 48% 30%2025-09-15 45% 32%2025-08-31 48% 30%2025-08-17 48% 29%2025-08-04 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Pierre Poilievre 43% ▲1 Negative / unfavourable 39% Positive / favourable 18% ▼1 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-12-07 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Pierre Poilievre 39% 43%2025-12-07 39% 42%2025-11-24 37% 44%2025-11-06 39% 42%2025-10-27 39% 42%2025-10-12 40% 42%2025-09-29 40% 41%2025-09-15 39% 42%2025-08-31 40% 42%2025-08-17 42% 41%2025-08-04 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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