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About this Innovative Research federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Innovative Research in December 2025, with a middle field date of December 9, 2025. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=2,159 Canadian respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error for an online sample is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would yield a margin of error [moe] of ±2.1%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Innovative Research (November 2025), the Liberal Party remains stable at 39%, the Conservative Party is up one point (variation smaller than moe), and the New Democratic Party is up one point (variation smaller than moe).

You can read more information on this poll here.


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Canada 39% LPC 39% ▲1 CPC 10% ▲1 NDP 7% ▼1 BQ 4% GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-12-09 338Canada.com
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156 LPC 139 CPC 30 BQ 16 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats NL 5 2 PEI 4 NS 11 NB 7 3 QC 38 30 9 1 ON 61 57 3 1 MB 7 5 2 SK 13 1 AB 32 3 2 BC 19 16 7 1 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Innovative Research federal poll December 9, 2025 🍁
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Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Innovative Research




Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 52% ▲4 LPC 34% ▲3 CPC 7% ▲1 NDP 3% ▼9 GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-12-09 338Canada.com
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Quebec 36% LPC 32% ▼2 BQ 22% ▲1 CPC 4% NDP 4% ▲2 GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-12-09 338Canada.com
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Ontario 44% ▼2 LPC 42% ▲2 CPC 10% ▲1 NDP 4% GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-12-09 338Canada.com
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Manitoba/Saskatchewan 53% ▲2 CPC 29% ▲3 LPC 15% NDP 2% ▼5 GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-12-09 338Canada.com
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Alberta 55% ▼2 CPC 26% LPC 14% ▲5 NDP 3% GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-12-09 338Canada.com
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British Columbia 38% ▲2 LPC 38% ▼3 CPC 16% ▲1 NDP 6% GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-12-09 338Canada.com
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Preferred PM 37% ▼6 Carney 31% ▲1 Poilievre 20% ▲8 Don't know 4% Davies 4% ▲1 May 3% Blanchet Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-12-09 338Canada.com
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Innovative Research Preferred PM tracker 37% 31%2025-12-09 43% 30%2025-06-18 43% 30%2025-05-17 ◻︎Carney ◻︎Others ◻︎Don't know ◻︎Poilievre
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Impression / favourability of Mark Carney 44% ▼1 Positive / favourable 35% ▲3 Negative / unfavourable 21% ▼2 Neutral / Unsure Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-12-09 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Mark Carney 44% 35%2025-12-09 45% 32%2025-10-17 50% 28%2025-06-18 50% 27%2025-05-17 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Pierre Poilievre 43% Negative / unfavourable 36% Positive / favourable 21% Neutral / Unsure Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-12-09 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Pierre Poilievre 36% 43%2025-12-09 36% 43%2025-10-17 37% 43%2025-06-18 38% 42%2025-05-17 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Don Davies 73% ▼5 Neutral / Unsure 14% Negative / unfavourable 13% ▲5 Positive / favourable Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-12-09 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Don Davies 13% 14%2025-12-09 8% 14%2025-10-17 9% 14%2025-06-18 8% 12%2025-05-17 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Yves-François Blanchet 40% ▼3 Neutral / Unsure 37% ▲2 Positive / favourable 23% ▲1 Negative / unfavourable Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-12-09 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Yves-François Blanchet 37% 23%2025-12-09 35% 22%2025-10-17 39% 24%2025-06-18 39% 26%2025-05-17 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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